CAT4 Hurricane Ida hit LA coast 11:55am08/29. New Orleans 980k in blackout .Update:8am09/02 Ida off NE coast, Tornadoes in PA,NJ, NYC flooded

Maybe not this time, but you know she will keep on trying.

That's the one I'm watching. Temps are jumping back up to 110F in AZ... We need more raaaaain

Thread: Nicholas landed in Texas as Hurricane 1, NHC monitoring 2 systems in Atlantic (Page 3)

On another thread I made the prediction that these models may be underestimating the RI index for this storm. I think a key factor will be the strength, speed, and exact location of cuba that is crosses later today. IMO that is the only major significant factor that can delay RI happening. Out to the west is a slight trough that could bring ever so slight shear over the western side of the storm, but since its forecasted to be less than 15mph it should have little to no impact. Looking at the storm at 8am it is outperforming my own personal opinion. I think this will be 70-80mph as it crosses Cuba, and may not weaken too much if any once its on the other side. We have seen similar situations like this even over the past 5 years where in 24-36 hours a storm has intensified from a minimal TS to a CAT 4 or more, and NHC kept it strong 2 or weak 3 instead. Typically the systems in the past that have RI'ed into a 4 or 5 in 24-48 hours-- there was a small high pressure system developing over the system in the upper levels of the system that increased the efficiency of the outflow. In this case that does not exist, but the overall dynamics around the periphery of the system are supposed to enhance the outflow as well. Enhanced outflow = faster deepening system because it helps the system to efficiently take the latent heat in the ocean waters and "exhaust it upwards" to raise the cloud deck around the center resulting in cooling and the dark colors on the enhanced satellite images. So hold on this could be a crazy storm over the next 48 hours..

8am 08/27/21 Update

Ida is now forecasted to have sustained winds of 115 mph just before making landfall west of New Orleans late Sunday.

It's officially forecasted by the NHC to be a CAT 3

Currently it north of the Grand Cayman Islands headed toward west Cuba with sustained winds of 60mph.

Last Edited by Remedial_Rebel on 08/27/2021 08:31 AM

I think you are going to see that potentially increase each upcoming forecast. I dont think there has ever been a time that a storm was a TD or minimal TS that they forecasted a 4 or 5 out of the gate, and I dont believe the models are still accurate enough to do that. They just "catch up" run to run. Yesterday there was one run that had it stronger than 115ish.. now there's 4 and those are clustered right at Cat3/Cat4 level. Again how quickly it is affected and recovers from crossing cuba is going to be critical.

The gulf water temps are running around 86F. If there is minimal wind shear, it should spin up pretty fast once past Cuba. Only takes 80F for development.

NAVGEM (US Navy's) model has Ida exceeding a CAT 3 to CAT 4 130 mph.

[link to models.myfoxhurricane.com]

(pick NVGM)

when is the next major update?

National Hurricane Center will issue a 11am EDT update.

I don't expect much difference until it's in the gulf early Saturday morning and passes over Cuba.

How much Cuba disrupts development will be a significant factor.

One thread on this entire pos site about this. GLP is done.

Yes. Disappointing.

I was hit very hard by Laura last year, my property was flooded. No offense, but I hope it keeps trending east.

It's crazy how fast these storms can grow in the GoM. Fascinating to see it on satellite images too, the moment they just balloon into monsters within hours

Warm water

They just explode

Predicted peak storm surge 7-11ft

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

I wonder if the same people who didn’t evacuate last time won’t evacuate this time.

That's racist (sarc)

Yeah, well... Will this be Joe Biden’s Katrina?

If Ida makes landfall on Sunday as predicted, that will be the 16th anniversary of Katrina.

And like earlier in the thread...IT'S TRUMP'S FAULT

would be the big distraction from current events they have hoped for!! Biden will still fuck it up, i wonder if they will require proof of vaccination if their needs to be evacuations!


edit* spelling

Last Edited by M R E on 08/27/2021 11:04 AM

no most of them are now living in Dallas and Houston

I'm already up on my roof

A1 B2 C3 - Z26

Hurricane Katrina = 171

August twenty-ninth = 261

The United States of America = 261

Hurricane Ida = 111


Two thousand five = 202

Two thousand twenty one = 301

[link to 31102bible.com (secure)]

Looks to have category 5 potential............

If you're used to hurricanes like most of us coast residents are, you don't evacuate for anything under a 4.

Part of the reason is that through the entire atlantic, its truly the only location that normally sits at 85-88F ocean temps and normally there is a ridge of high pressure either in there, or around there with minimal shear impacts. But this could turn into a dangerous situation. The only wild card outside of cuba that I see is an indirect impact from Nora in the pacific creating a little bit more of a defined trough to the west of IDA-- although I'm not really buying it at this point.