The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.

OP, have you read The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver? If so, what's your opinion about what she got right forecasting the future of the United States and the future of the US dollar?

I really wish I knew. If I could predict with any degree of certainty whether housing was going to go up or down, and pin it down to a timeline of plus or minus several years, I could be a billionaire. Just keep that in mind. Like if anybody tells you to do this or do that because this or that is going to happen, and they're not a billionaire, they're probably full of complete shit. There's a 99.9999% chance they're full of absolute shit, and a .00001% chance they're a financial genius at the beginning of their career.

I mean there are objectively bad ideas, like getting into a mortgage payment that's 70% of your gross income. Doesn't take a genius to know that's a bad idea.

But if you can get into a house that you can easily afford and it's the right house at the right time and your employer is offering help, yea maybe.

All I can say for sure is don't pay some crazy whackadoodle game where you come in 20% over asking and waive inspection. Don't participate in that kind of FOMO. And get a GOOD inspector, even if and ESPECIALLY if it's a brand new house. I've seen some stuff...

ETA: ...and even if they ARE a billionaire, there's still a 99% chance they're full of complete shit. Some billionaires came by their money in more honest ways than others, but not a single one by being able to predict the future.

Last Edited by okie1 on 03/25/2023 11:21 PM

This is the first I've heard of it, but I will check it out. Thank you for the recommendation.

Last Edited by okie1 on 03/25/2023 11:19 PM

Seeing op say Bitcoin as reserve currency?

Wow that's pretty far fetched.

Why would central banks buy Gold if bitcoins were going to replace it?

Each nation could use their gold reserves to create a gold-backed digital currency for itself. And then OP was saying Bitcoin could be the 'reserve' digital currency that allows transactions nation-to-nation.

I could see that happening.

I hope they plan on doing so with more efficiency than that debacle in Afghanistan/ Kabul.

So…tomato plants in OP?

Having said that, my hope is that the people of the world collectively decide to use Dogecoin as the peoples' money, foregoing national CBDCs.

Okay, I read the synopsis. I don't think gold is going to have much relevance in the financial system going forward. I think it's a shiny metal with some industrial value as a commodity, but as far as gold being recognized as money or a reserve asset, no I don't think so. What little status gold has left as money I see it losing this decade.

As far as the BRICS nations moving towards a gold backed currency, like I said before, people fundamentally misunderstand what's happening. They're executing a hasty stopgap measure in the absence of dollars flowing into their economies. So instead of trading with each other in dollars, seeing as how they share a common dollar shortage, they've made arrangements to trade in their own currencies to avoid the high cost of having to buy dollars to trade with. For example, China has backed the Yuan with lots of gold to give their energy providers reasonable assurance that the Yuan is good. That saves Chinese companies from having to buy dollars with Yuan, with which to buy oil from the Middle East. That means there's less cost associated with buying the energy, meaning more money. The Iraqis for example benefit from taking Yuan because they can get a greater value than if the Yuan had to be converted to dollars first. They would of course naturally rather have the dollars, but you take what you can get.

The author is also failing to understand that the world probably owes us a lot more dollars than we owe them. The ENTIRE national debt is 30 trillion dollars, and only about 10 trillion of that is owned by foreigners. China owns more than half of that all by themselves, and almost another half is owned by Japan, China's mortal enemy since the beginning of time. So the idea that all the foreign countries are going to put aside their differences and gang up on us is probably not very likely. And I don't think defaulting on our debt would be a good move strategically, because it would hurt our allies as much or more as our enemies.

There's also the matter of the 80 trillion dollars in FX swap debt. That means that in all likelihood, China owes a lot more money to us than we owe to them. So it wouldn't be advantageous for us to default on our debt, but were China to default on its debt, it would give us a pretty justifiable reason to cancel their bond payments without being seen as a credit risk.

Old habits die hard. The fed isn't buying gold.

There's a global dollar shortage, and it's making it not only very hard for foreigners to service dollar debt, but also to transact internationally. Nobody trusts each other, but they all trust dollars.

So in order to build trust in their currencies, countries like China have been buying a lot of gold lately.

I personally see this as gold's last gasp as money, vs. some dawning of a return to a gold standard.

Well done.

thanks pal.., ill keep what you have said in mind.
wish you all the best!

Ahaha, bro doesn't think the Fed can print money, doesn't think the reserve currency can hyperinflate, Bitcoin is sweet, and gold is old fashioned.

Whoever buys this BS, good luck to you.

The truth is, it's not about America any more. It is now about the economies of THE REST OF THE WORLD, in entirety.

And guess what. They like gold.

Women love gold.

Women love silver.

Women love jewellry. It will NEVER go out of fashion.

And it has a lot more utility than JUST jewellry.What is being lost in the world right now is TRUST. And what does gold remove the need for? Trust. If what you are providing the other person is authentic verifiable gold in their hand, that is good enough. There is no future payment. There is no future "What if this gets devalued" hypothetical.

Will fiat return at some point in the future? Yeah sure, who ever has power, Russia, China etc, will probably see if they can get away with NOT backing their currency with gold, in 15 or 20 years from now.

But the move is towards TANGIBLE goods. Commodities. But oil is absurdly difficult to store (hell, most consider silver difficult to store, now compare an oz of silver to a BARREL of oil) and food will degrade and go bad. Land is absurdly overvalued and easy to tax, and you can't take it with you, so it has limited use as well (although obviously when you find the right piece of land for the right price it is a fantastic investment).

OP, I see what you are saying. But consider this, what if there is a hidden war within our government and one side WANTS the dollar to die.

Do you see it?

Gold requires ULTIMATE trust. Gold is the reason why we are in the mess we're in today.

Fractional reserve banking is 100% due to the inability of gold to function as currency. People realized the futility of trying to prevent fractional reserve and simply tried to work out a system whereby they could live with it. The only way to prevent the theft was to institutionalize it.

Just look at Germany's gold that they lost to the New York fed. If a first world sovereign nation can't trust the largest, most heavily regulated gold vault in the world, do you think you can trust some third party to store your gold for you?

The only way gold can be trustless is if you get on a plane with your gold coins, that you've tested for purity with a 10k dollar piece of equipment, and fly your ass to China, where you purchase a toaster, and then fly your ass with your toaster all the way back to the United States.

The only other alternative is to accept some digital fiat version of gold, which is exactly how the USD and every other sovereign currency in the world today started. And there is simply no way to maintain an accurate ledger under those circumstances because the need for security completely precludes any and all possibility that the physical gold can be audited to anything even bordering on satisfactory levels. Which is why even a sovereign nation like Germany is helpless to protect its own gold.

All I'm really concerned with is what the central banks want because they will almost undoubtedly get their way.

I would guess they want the dollar to survive and serve its purpose as before fleecing the world but it appears that is being changed.

How would a gold backed digital currency even work? If you don’t hold the gold in your possession this is no different than the “digital currency” we already have and use every day. A bunch of numbers in a database that can be linked to some real asset, but as we all know, if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.

Many can't even grasp this concept.

OP is tarded and just trying to confuse everyone.

You can't blame GOLD for fractional reserve banking! That is literally backwards.

Fractional reserve banking was invented (or popularized in the west at least) by the Knights Templar because they realized the potential to make yourself wealthy through FRAUD in such a system.

Fraud that a gold backed system DOES NOT TOLERATE or allow.

OP is literally pushing what the elites want, which is for young people to invest in BTC instead of precious metals, and to believe that central banks (and the USD as world reserve currency!) are ALL POWERFUL.

They would LOVE for people to believe that. They would love that enough to pay OP tree fiddy to post this inanity.

Whatever happens... theres a 99.99% chance that the "people of the world" are going to have extremely little say in the matter.

Not that I agree that central banks would want to back bitcoin, BUT if they did they sure as fuck wouldnt want to advertise to the world that there was something serious afoot by starting to horde gold. They want the masses to be the last to find out... which to be fair we usually are.

Jumped the shark with that one I think.

Nope. The Fed created so many new Federal Reserve Notes over the past two weeks that they undid FOUR MONTHS worth of QT. The entire world's financial system is a Ponzi scheme, and you can't "taper" a Ponzi. Three things are now certain: 1) A massive banking crash, 2) A massive stock market crash, and 3) A U.S. dollar crash, which will unleash insane inflation. Gold, silver, and gold and silver stocks are the only things to own going forward. And no, in case you're wondering, "cryptocurrencies" will not survive. They're ALL going to reach their intrinsic value -- zero.

This is one of the most informative threads I’ve seen lately. Thank you for taking the time to explain, OP. The devil is in the details. I’m retired now, but spent decades in banking and finance at an executive level. I find it painful to read economic takes from people that don’t understand how the FED operates and how the system really works. I’ve never taken the time to try to explain because I thought it would be a waste of time. Reading your post makes me wish more folks would try to educate the public about what’s really going on behind the scenes.

Exactly

Exactly

Bitcoin will never be a reserve currency it’s a shitcoin. There’s only gonna be 21 million ever mined.

Bitcoin will never be a reserve currency it’s a shitcoin. There’s only gonna be 21 million ever mined.