Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 1,724 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 324,577
Pageviews Today: 512,538Threads Today: 161Posts Today: 2,528
06:28 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.

 
Rhinodawg

User ID: 84908603
United States
03/25/2023 01:13 AM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
The coming war with russia/china is to cover up the fiscal robbery of the u.s by the banks which was allowed by corrupt politicians who got their cuts.

Second off, they want to replace the current system with digital and to do that they have to destroy the old system and they are doing it on purpose with no intention of paying off the debt.

The whole thing was a massive scam and setup from the start so the globalist through the IMF would end up owning entire countries, land, resources, people etc because corrupt politicians didn't spend responsibly. It was the plan for the last 40 years, maybe the last 80..

They won't do anything to stop or slow the financial collapse, this is the big one. At the end of the day all of us want to be holding tangible assets in land, precious metals, food enough for 2 years to ride this out and ways to defend yourself and your family because it will get bad enough where neighbours will be robbing neighbours and we may not have a stable 911/police system in place to deal with it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81409807


I would say it's fair to make the blanket statement that all US military expansion currently is driven by the singular motive to incorporate new economies into the western banking system, and thereby find new sources of credit and demand for credit.

Very much like the latter Roman empire in the sense that the military expansion is required to sustain spending, and especially in the sense that expansions have turned into net losses. That is, we can push into a country like the Ukraine or Syria, and must, but once there we no longer have the resources to wage an actual war. I think we're about to start giving up territory.
 Quoting: okie1

Yes, it sounds like we may be forced to give up US bases in foreign countries. China and Iran are doing that right now as we speak in Syria. As far as enveloping other countries into the western banking system, that is coming to an end.
okie1  (OP)

User ID: 85001902
United States
03/25/2023 01:14 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
So how do we all get rich off this in the short term?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84069824


Start a youtube financial advice channel and tell people to click your link to buy gold?

Seriously, let's put it this way. Warren Buffet, the most famous investor of all time, is getting beat up by this market.

It's made an utter fool of Michael Burry, the most famous trader of all time.

Anyone with the allegedly bulletproof 60/40 portfolio, which is so conservative as to be thought of as safer than a bank, got beat up.

No part of this economy knows whether it's coming or going. Gold and BTC should be crashing right now, but everyone is afraid of the banks so they're going higher.

Interest rates shouldn't be going down, but demand for t bills is off the charts because the smart money is going to cash and banks are needing collateral for various reasons.

As long as the money supply continues contracting, cash is probably the safest bet, and the safest place to keep it besides the mattress is probably the treasury (treasurydirect.gov or something like that).
okie
okie1  (OP)

User ID: 85001902
United States
03/25/2023 01:19 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
The coming war with russia/china is to cover up the fiscal robbery of the u.s by the banks which was allowed by corrupt politicians who got their cuts.

Second off, they want to replace the current system with digital and to do that they have to destroy the old system and they are doing it on purpose with no intention of paying off the debt.

The whole thing was a massive scam and setup from the start so the globalist through the IMF would end up owning entire countries, land, resources, people etc because corrupt politicians didn't spend responsibly. It was the plan for the last 40 years, maybe the last 80..

They won't do anything to stop or slow the financial collapse, this is the big one. At the end of the day all of us want to be holding tangible assets in land, precious metals, food enough for 2 years to ride this out and ways to defend yourself and your family because it will get bad enough where neighbours will be robbing neighbours and we may not have a stable 911/police system in place to deal with it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81409807


I would say it's fair to make the blanket statement that all US military expansion currently is driven by the singular motive to incorporate new economies into the western banking system, and thereby find new sources of credit and demand for credit.

Very much like the latter Roman empire in the sense that the military expansion is required to sustain spending, and especially in the sense that expansions have turned into net losses. That is, we can push into a country like the Ukraine or Syria, and must, but once there we no longer have the resources to wage an actual war. I think we're about to start giving up territory.
 Quoting: okie1

Yes, it sounds like we may be forced to give up US bases in foreign countries. China and Iran are doing that right now as we speak in Syria. As far as enveloping other countries into the western banking system, that is coming to an end.
 Quoting: Rhinodawg


I mean we're pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel anyways. Any further NATO expansion has horrible risk to reward ratios. High probability of failure, very little reward even if successful.

Military spending is by far the biggest expense to the taxpayers after social programs. It's gotta go if the government plans on cutting spending. It's one thing to make loans to the Ukraine through the IMF, especially when they use the money to purchase our weapons, but it's quite another to actually use taxpayer money directly to fight a war.
okie
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40392033
United States
03/25/2023 01:27 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
If QE is deflationary and we're dealing with the consequences of QE now, then why is the Fed fighting inflation by raising rates which is theoretically causing disinflation through the mechanism I think you're describing.

The only way we get deflation is if giv does not raise the debt ceiling and the Fed keeps hiking. I would bet against both of those.

QE, inflation, and several trillion dollar platinum coins prior to cbdc is the future as far as I can see. You seem to know more about it than me though but I just don't follow this deflation logic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40392033


THAT is a big gnarly can of worms.

That's the paradox that has been faking out experienced investors for the last year. They've been thinking that we're in a 1970s stagflationary economy, when in fact we're in more of a 1930s deflationary economy.

There always a real increase in CPI during monetary downturns, because the cost of money goes up, according to basic supply and demand principles. Less cash to go around, the more expensive it is to get. I.e. you have to give more to get the same nominal amount as before. That's the deflationary part.

But the inflationary part is that the cost of doing business goes up, and that's especially true in an economy that runs entirely on debt.

This is just the first time that the supply chain destruction has been so bad that CPI has gone up in nominal terms during a deflationary downturn.

Things always become more unaffordable in real terms during deflationary downturns, at least to those who live on a budget. But usually there's still a steep decline in nominal CPI around the same time as the decline in asset prices. The decline in CPI just doesn't keep up with the decline in wages.

So the basic economic pressures driving these conditions are the same, but they're just so extreme that they're actually forcing CPI up nominally while the money supply contracts.

And it's worse because interest rates keep going up, because our economy runs on debt, and because every part of the economy is already fully leveraged. That's prevented falling asset prices from turning the money growth back around and bringing rates down, and the high rates make doing business extremely expensive, which makes everything you need to live more expensive. When you account for the deflation of the money supply, especially in terms of how far below trend it is with credit expansion, the inflation is actually through the roof.
 Quoting: okie1


Oh that's interesting. So even if the Fed continues to tighten, nominal cpi would continue to increase. This would continue into the foreseeable future, well beyond any correctable point by the policy makers because the supply chain is essentially as distributed as the money system. So... No way out
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40392033
United States
03/25/2023 01:29 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
If QE is deflationary and we're dealing with the consequences of QE now, then why is the Fed fighting inflation by raising rates which is theoretically causing disinflation through the mechanism I think you're describing.

The only way we get deflation is if giv does not raise the debt ceiling and the Fed keeps hiking. I would bet against both of those.

QE, inflation, and several trillion dollar platinum coins prior to cbdc is the future as far as I can see. You seem to know more about it than me though but I just don't follow this deflation logic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40392033


THAT is a big gnarly can of worms.

That's the paradox that has been faking out experienced investors for the last year. They've been thinking that we're in a 1970s stagflationary economy, when in fact we're in more of a 1930s deflationary economy.

There always a real increase in CPI during monetary downturns, because the cost of money goes up, according to basic supply and demand principles. Less cash to go around, the more expensive it is to get. I.e. you have to give more to get the same nominal amount as before. That's the deflationary part.

But the inflationary part is that the cost of doing business goes up, and that's especially true in an economy that runs entirely on debt.

This is just the first time that the supply chain destruction has been so bad that CPI has gone up in nominal terms during a deflationary downturn.

Things always become more unaffordable in real terms during deflationary downturns, at least to those who live on a budget. But usually there's still a steep decline in nominal CPI around the same time as the decline in asset prices. The decline in CPI just doesn't keep up with the decline in wages.

So the basic economic pressures driving these conditions are the same, but they're just so extreme that they're actually forcing CPI up nominally while the money supply contracts.

And it's worse because interest rates keep going up, because our economy runs on debt, and because every part of the economy is already fully leveraged. That's prevented falling asset prices from turning the money growth back around and bringing rates down, and the high rates make doing business extremely expensive, which makes everything you need to live more expensive. When you account for the deflation of the money supply, especially in terms of how far below trend it is with credit expansion, the inflation is actually through the roof.
 Quoting: okie1


Oh that's interesting. So even if the Fed continues to tighten, nominal cpi would continue to increase. This would continue into the foreseeable future, well beyond any correctable point by the policy makers because the supply chain is essentially as dysfunctional as the money system. So... No way out
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40392033
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81543350
United States
03/25/2023 01:45 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Fed is punching the accelerator and slamming the brakes at the same time. Breakdown imminent.
 Quoting: FiX11


Smoke those tires baby!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9151834
United States
03/25/2023 01:51 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Bonus factoid: If you want a really simple explanation of why all fed interventions are deflationary in the long run, it's because the basic underlying principle behind our monetary system doesn't change.

That principle is that all monetary expansion creates a greater liability than the sum of new money injected into the money supply.

For example, someone borrows 300k to buy a house, but over the course of the loan has to pay back 600k, meaning 300k was put into circulation, but over the course of the loan 600k will come out.

ALL fed interventions obey this principle long term. All fed interventions only delay the inevitable, but at a cost of making the inevitable more devastating when it finally catches up. Again, we're currently paying the price for things they started doing 15 years ago.
 Quoting: okie1


The literal definition of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. At no time in history, has the expansion of the money supply been deflationary.
okie1  (OP)

User ID: 85001902
United States
03/25/2023 01:55 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Bonus factoid: If you want a really simple explanation of why all fed interventions are deflationary in the long run, it's because the basic underlying principle behind our monetary system doesn't change.

That principle is that all monetary expansion creates a greater liability than the sum of new money injected into the money supply.

For example, someone borrows 300k to buy a house, but over the course of the loan has to pay back 600k, meaning 300k was put into circulation, but over the course of the loan 600k will come out.

ALL fed interventions obey this principle long term. All fed interventions only delay the inevitable, but at a cost of making the inevitable more devastating when it finally catches up. Again, we're currently paying the price for things they started doing 15 years ago.
 Quoting: okie1


The literal definition of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. At no time in history, has the expansion of the money supply been deflationary.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9151834


The money supply is contracting atm. Violently.

Think about it this way. When you borrow money, it's inflationary. Imagine that you're the entire economy. Your money supply just inflated.

However, when you have to start servicing that loan, all the sudden what felt inflationary at first now feels very deflationary, and it is.

You're not only no longer spending more, you're now having to cut back spending in order to afford the debt service payments.

And like we established, loans create a greater liability than the sum of money created by the loan. So let's say you borrowed 100 dollars and now have to pay back 101 dollars. You will now pay back ALL the money in existence, plus 1 dollar that doesn't exist, meaning you can never pay back the loan.

ALL monetary expansion is temporary, and has a future deflationary component built into it.

Last Edited by okie1 on 03/25/2023 02:11 AM
okie
okie1  (OP)

User ID: 85001902
United States
03/25/2023 02:04 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
If QE is deflationary and we're dealing with the consequences of QE now, then why is the Fed fighting inflation by raising rates which is theoretically causing disinflation through the mechanism I think you're describing.

The only way we get deflation is if giv does not raise the debt ceiling and the Fed keeps hiking. I would bet against both of those.

QE, inflation, and several trillion dollar platinum coins prior to cbdc is the future as far as I can see. You seem to know more about it than me though but I just don't follow this deflation logic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40392033


THAT is a big gnarly can of worms.

That's the paradox that has been faking out experienced investors for the last year. They've been thinking that we're in a 1970s stagflationary economy, when in fact we're in more of a 1930s deflationary economy.

There always a real increase in CPI during monetary downturns, because the cost of money goes up, according to basic supply and demand principles. Less cash to go around, the more expensive it is to get. I.e. you have to give more to get the same nominal amount as before. That's the deflationary part.

But the inflationary part is that the cost of doing business goes up, and that's especially true in an economy that runs entirely on debt.

This is just the first time that the supply chain destruction has been so bad that CPI has gone up in nominal terms during a deflationary downturn.

Things always become more unaffordable in real terms during deflationary downturns, at least to those who live on a budget. But usually there's still a steep decline in nominal CPI around the same time as the decline in asset prices. The decline in CPI just doesn't keep up with the decline in wages.

So the basic economic pressures driving these conditions are the same, but they're just so extreme that they're actually forcing CPI up nominally while the money supply contracts.

And it's worse because interest rates keep going up, because our economy runs on debt, and because every part of the economy is already fully leveraged. That's prevented falling asset prices from turning the money growth back around and bringing rates down, and the high rates make doing business extremely expensive, which makes everything you need to live more expensive. When you account for the deflation of the money supply, especially in terms of how far below trend it is with credit expansion, the inflation is actually through the roof.
 Quoting: okie1


Oh that's interesting. So even if the Fed continues to tighten, nominal cpi would continue to increase. This would continue into the foreseeable future, well beyond any correctable point by the policy makers because the supply chain is essentially as distributed as the money system. So... No way out
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40392033


I have to imagine there's a breaking point where CPI will have to move down, but I really don't know.
okie
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9151834
United States
03/25/2023 02:12 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Bonus factoid: If you want a really simple explanation of why all fed interventions are deflationary in the long run, it's because the basic underlying principle behind our monetary system doesn't change.

That principle is that all monetary expansion creates a greater liability than the sum of new money injected into the money supply.

For example, someone borrows 300k to buy a house, but over the course of the loan has to pay back 600k, meaning 300k was put into circulation, but over the course of the loan 600k will come out.

ALL fed interventions obey this principle long term. All fed interventions only delay the inevitable, but at a cost of making the inevitable more devastating when it finally catches up. Again, we're currently paying the price for things they started doing 15 years ago.
 Quoting: okie1


The literal definition of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. At no time in history, has the expansion of the money supply been deflationary.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9151834


The money supply is contracting atm. Violently.
 Quoting: okie1


The Federal Reserve ONLY creates inflation. For the money supply to contract, the entire economy has to restructure from spending to savings and production.

The bank bailouts are the expansion of the money supply.

Once the entire debt based economy starts collapsing with financial crisis, the Federal Reserve will start expanding the money supply like the past 15 years....

They've barely withdrawn any liquidity. Interest rates still have to rise to above the rate of real inflation instead of negative, to encourage savings.

The dollar is going to collapse.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81639379
United States
03/25/2023 03:00 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Where does the move to CBDC fit in your theory? That clearly seems to be happening. Do you see it as solely about controlling a population during and after a collapse?
SunshineRay
Godlike

User ID: 80882339
United States
03/25/2023 09:15 AM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Bump to follow
Faith is the soil where flowers grow and you need to nourish yours on a regular basis. Accepting that change is a natural condition and not a sign of your past mistakes helps you open up and let go of all those aspects of life that are beyond your control.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80429789
United States
03/25/2023 09:46 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Now say it in one sentence
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46624553


Money printer broken, fed no can go brrrr, economy much sad.
 Quoting: okie1


Not a bad thread, but the whole "go brrr" thing is a bit done to death/annoying (kinda,like the "boating accident" thing.

Gnome?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 85508633
United States
03/25/2023 10:23 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Great 5hread op...thanks

So treasury direct is your recommendation? What duration?

If USG goes BK so does TD
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79861987
United States
03/25/2023 10:49 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
There's only one way out for them...to prevent their house of cards from crumbling.

A crisis so large it will allow them to restructure the entire world's economic model.

WAR.Big war.

Coming soon.
powerequalsisquaredr

User ID: 84190242
United States
03/25/2023 11:08 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Fed is punching the accelerator and slamming the brakes at the same time. Breakdown imminent.
 Quoting: FiX11


Well said

dicaprio-agree
powerequalsisquaredr
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78714632
United States
03/25/2023 11:37 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 85165906
United States
03/25/2023 11:39 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
The usd is dying, but that doesn’t there has to be war. There’s only war because Anglo Europeans want to drag everyone else down like that dumb karen riddled with std’s wants to give everyone else std’s so she can virtue signal and have sympathy from everyone else. Misery loves company.
A pseudonym

User ID: 85500082
United States
03/25/2023 11:41 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Op sideways people not reading his wall of text
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80047662



I read it.
There’s about to be a lot of shady dealings because there’s no easy way do default but it’s coming. Best not make any major purchases right now, all the rats are realizing the ship is sinking and they will do dishonest things to keep from going down with the boat.
5a
A pseudonym
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79336278
United States
03/25/2023 11:44 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Instead of giving you a 15% rate of return on your deposits and asking you to pay taxes on the gains, the system is giving you 1% rate of return on deposits and offering you a loan at the same rate. Somebody who has the money doesn't need the loan, so the primary inflation driver is forcing you to borrow money instead of getting traditional rate of return for your assets from the bank, which is using your money to pay for its facilities, employees and shareholders. But it's your money. Why do you let others make more money from your money than yourself?
A pseudonym

User ID: 85500082
United States
03/25/2023 11:44 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
The usd is dying, but that doesn’t there has to be war. There’s only war because Anglo Europeans want to drag everyone else down like that dumb karen riddled with std’s wants to give everyone else std’s so she can virtue signal and have sympathy from everyone else. Misery loves company.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85165906


No war generates money, promotes population control,
distracts from the reality of other situations, and if you fund the bullets and the bandaids, you’ll create jobs and money
Sure it’s wrong but that’s never stopped them before
A pseudonym
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 83899610
United States
03/25/2023 11:45 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
This is an amazing analysis. 5* absolutely. This is the kind of information why I come to GLP. Kudos to you! I'm saving this one to reread.
A pseudonym

User ID: 85500082
United States
03/25/2023 11:45 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Instead of giving you a 15% rate of return on your deposits and asking you to pay taxes on the gains, the system is giving you 1% rate of return on deposits and offering you a loan at the same rate. Somebody who has the money doesn't need the loan, so the primary inflation driver is forcing you to borrow money instead of getting traditional rate of return for your assets from the bank, which is using your money to pay for its facilities, employees and shareholders. But it's your money. Why do you let others make more money from your money than yourself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79336278


Well said!bumpbump
A pseudonym
A pseudonym

User ID: 85500082
United States
03/25/2023 11:47 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
There's only one way out for them...to prevent their house of cards from crumbling.

A crisis so large it will allow them to restructure the entire world's economic model.

WAR.Big war.

Coming soon.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79861987




Agreed!

bump
A pseudonym
BrainGuy: Comedic wisdom.
White heteropatriarchal supremacist

User ID: 85498074
United States
03/25/2023 11:48 AM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Translation:
No Lambo.
---------------
Don't care.
Still voting Trump!
t5a
----------
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 83324685
Italy
03/25/2023 11:52 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Op sideways people not reading his wall of text
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80047662


I read it. I'm sorry you never learned how to read.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 83899610
United States
03/25/2023 11:52 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Okie1,
I love your work. Awesome. I will be looking for more threads from you. I will pay attention.
Thank You!
gebahie

User ID: 84180691
United States
03/25/2023 12:10 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78551315
United States
03/25/2023 12:22 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
Op sideways people not reading his wall of text
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80047662


AC 80047662 sideways Demonrats + other NWO lovers

Enjoy abject poverty when it costs 10,000 US dollars to buy a loaf of bread.

Just preview life in Venezuela right after their currency became worthless.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 83070820
United States
03/25/2023 12:35 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: The TRUTH about the fed pivot. It's NOT what you're being told.
One of the best most thoughtful and well considered threads in a long time. So in a pure text book version of deflation gold and silver would be dropping but because of a very large fear and uncertainty factor they are rising, because of it at least being some sort of “safe harbor” ? So the specter of a full on failure of the dollar is where the fear comes from?

Also, it seems as though the debt service will soon be the largest expenditure in the budget, if this were the case in my personal finances I would not remain solvent for long.





GLP