COVID19 HOLY SH&T A Research Thread

Hey OP,

What I found most interesting in all of that is the concept that the antibodies from some very specific previous CVs may have particularly strong ADE responses.

That's the first explanation I've seen for the weird regional behavior of COVID-19. As contagious as it is, it should really be blossoming everywhere, but it may only be bad in regions where a particular cold was circulating in the past that left specific antibodies. It would explain why you see such a big outbreak in NYC but nothing similar in SF or Chicago, which both should have had plenty of people arriving to seed the areas with COVID-19. Perhaps all those cities got sprayed equally with with COVID-19 shedders, but only the NYC population had the CV resume (CV CV - haha) to trigger a bad response.

Here's the shitty part for me personally. I live in NY and have had plenty of colds over the years and presumably have plenty of antibodies. If your theory is right, there is a good chance some future mutation of COVID-19 will have the key to unlock an ADE response in me.

That blows. And unless I want to be playing Russian roulette every winter, I need a solution.

How about this?

There must be huge regional sections of the global population that do not have much experience with coronaviruses. I don't know much about coronaviruses, but I believe most of them don't do well in the heat.

Would moving to one of these regions be the answer? The heat would presumably provide some protection, and since the populations would have very thin CV histories, they would be unlikely to have their own bad reactions if they were exposed to some future iteration of COVID-19.

Part 5

What does ADE have to do with increased CFR among older populations?

We will go back to this paper.

Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses?

[link to www.sciencedirect.com (secure)]

“ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.”

And, here is where it gets interesting.

Everything I’ve posted up to this point has been backed by research and this is where I diverge into the theoretical, although there has been some solid evidence this could be true posted prior to this assertion.


The Common Cold

Repeated prior exposure to other Corona Virus types and the antibodies the immune system has produced over the course of one’s lifetime could be driving these higher death rates.

As mentioned earlier, there are several common colds that are corona viruses.

Older populations have much higher exposure rates and in turn more antibodies to these common cold viruses.

I believe COVID-19 exploits these antibodies through ADE to gain entry at a much higher rate, is more infective, and more lethal due to this mechanism in these older populations.

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What does all of this mean for our future?

bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people.

Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people.

Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people.

Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event.

While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant.

bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people.

Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people.

Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people.

Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event.

While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant.

I wonder if any of the flu vaccines could be involved in ADE for coronavirus?