COVID19 HOLY SH&T A Research Thread | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78629642 Canada 04/14/2020 09:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 2) COVID has an R0 somewhere between 2.2 - 6.6; probably closer to the 4-4 - 6.6 range; Between 40-80% will achieve heard immunity. We know people become immune to this because Immunoglobulin therapy works and people are testing with positive Titers. The people who have been 'reinfected' likely were never compeltely over the illness. This virus seems to go 'stealth' and can take 4+ weeks or more to totally vanquish. If immunoglobulin therapy works, then why isn’t it being used en masse to treat COVID patients? And why hasn’t it prevented any deaths or been widely and publicly announced as a treatment? If it’s really and truly that effective, then we should be able to end the lockdowns tomorrow. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78796793 United States 04/14/2020 09:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people. Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people. Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people. Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event. While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77067311 United States 04/14/2020 09:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78796793 Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people. Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people. Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event. While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant. Spanish Flu only killed some of those - massive doses of mis-prescribed aspirin killed the others. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77067311 United States 04/14/2020 09:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78796793 Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people. Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people. Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event. While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant. But yes, you are right - Covid19 is for all practical purposes meaningless. |
Shootingstar
User ID: 36988554 United States 04/14/2020 09:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77995674 United States 04/14/2020 09:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Before I get started, I want to state this tread is for the presentation and discussion of Research. Quoting: N3m3s1s This thread is PACKED with research. To skim through will take you 20 minutes. To understand and read everything linked will take you many hours. Be patient because you will understand more about this virus than 99% of the people out there if you digest this information. Others research and theories are invited so please add what you can. I’ve followed and read the BIG thread since early January and unfortunately it has evolved into a general discussion thread about much other than the virus. OK, so here we go. Primary discussion and research will be on four aspects. Herd Immunity. ADE (Antibody Deficient Enhancement) Increased Death rates in older populations Vaccination Part 1. I’ve been watching this Virus (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, since early January and have read many research papers and articles on this particular Virus and also other Corona Virus types. I will reveal why other Corona Virus types are important to this discussion later. All of this has been in my head for a while and I wanted to put my thoughts down in one place. What I am going to post is going to warp some people’s minds but these are the conclusions I’ve come to about COVID19. I will discuss “Herd Immunity” and why COVID19 is more lethal in older populations. With this also comes the discussion of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. The term Herd Immunity has been much touted as a way that we as a society can get beyond this virus and start back to a normal life What if I told you that there is no herd immunity to this virus? At least not in our lifetimes. What if I told you that there is a mechanism by which SAR-CoV-2 could reinfect and be even more lethal amongst those reinfected than the first infection? What if I told you that I am doubtful that a vaccine could be developed for this virus with current technologies? How would this change things for society as a whole? I will follow up this initial post with the research that has lead me to these conclusions. What if I told you we knew about all of that months ago? |
Asymptote
User ID: 6272759 United States 04/14/2020 09:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you the dude from Zerosense that posted some amazing stuff. Actually, best stuff I've read on the topic...and most disturbing. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77705376 [link to barbarous-reliquary.36082.n8.nabble.com] I'm still processing this one Interesting, but there is a problem with his hypothesis.... If this thing does start using the body to shed RNA at such alarming rates, overwhelming the body eventually to finally it dies... Then what is "protecting" the body from the huge amount of infectious RNA being put off by that small number of cells to begin with? Imagine a fire breaking out in a boat. The boat will quickly either itself be consumed and sink, thereby extinguishing the fire. How is the massive shedding of viral particulates not quickly overwhelming the host and as the infection spreads (like the fire in the previous example)? If this infection is so overwhelming, how is it so slow in creating symptoms in its victims? I agree with the co-infection possibility. The bigger question is why isn't this infection wiping out Chinese cities? Why weren't Beijing and Shanghai put into lockdown? If they were, as it appears, why weren't they overrun with COVID-19 Approaching the line "Be wary of mathematicians, particularly when they speak the truth." - Augustine I sign all my Karma Polymath supreme BTW.... Any grammatical errors (or incorrect words) are due to Spellcheck fucking hating me.....did you see, it auto fucking capitalism the word Spellcheck |
dodger007
User ID: 77690112 United States 04/14/2020 09:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76936019 United States 04/14/2020 09:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78671031 United States 04/14/2020 09:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Part 5 Quoting: N3m3s1s What does ADE have to do with increased CFR among older populations? We will go back to this paper. Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses? [link to www.sciencedirect.com (secure)] “ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.” And, here is where it gets interesting. Everything I’ve posted up to this point has been backed by research and this is where I diverge into the theoretical, although there has been some solid evidence this could be true posted prior to this assertion. The Common Cold Repeated prior exposure to other Corona Virus types and the antibodies the immune system has produced over the course of one’s lifetime could be driving these higher death rates. As mentioned earlier, there are several common colds that are corona viruses. Older populations have much higher exposure rates and in turn more antibodies to these common cold viruses. I believe COVID-19 exploits these antibodies through ADE to gain entry at a much higher rate, is more infective, and more lethal due to this mechanism in these older populations. ——— What does all of this mean for our future? Thank you OP. Great stuff. I agree with your hypothesis above. It explains the age factor. What do you surmise explains the male vs. female disparity? Thank you. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78685804 Canada 04/14/2020 09:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
CK Dexter Haven
User ID: 77028752 Switzerland 04/14/2020 09:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Part 5 Quoting: N3m3s1s What does ADE have to do with increased CFR among older populations? We will go back to this paper. Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses? [link to www.sciencedirect.com (secure)] “ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.” And, here is where it gets interesting. Everything I’ve posted up to this point has been backed by research and this is where I diverge into the theoretical, although there has been some solid evidence this could be true posted prior to this assertion. The Common Cold Repeated prior exposure to other Corona Virus types and the antibodies the immune system has produced over the course of one’s lifetime could be driving these higher death rates. As mentioned earlier, there are several common colds that are corona viruses. Older populations have much higher exposure rates and in turn more antibodies to these common cold viruses. I believe COVID-19 exploits these antibodies through ADE to gain entry at a much higher rate, is more infective, and more lethal due to this mechanism in these older populations. ——— What does all of this mean for our future? It could also be related to exposure to vaccines? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78685804 Canada 04/14/2020 09:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78796793 United States 04/14/2020 09:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Part 5 Quoting: N3m3s1s What does ADE have to do with increased CFR among older populations? We will go back to this paper. Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses? [link to www.sciencedirect.com (secure)] “ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.” And, here is where it gets interesting. Everything I’ve posted up to this point has been backed by research and this is where I diverge into the theoretical, although there has been some solid evidence this could be true posted prior to this assertion. The Common Cold Repeated prior exposure to other Corona Virus types and the antibodies the immune system has produced over the course of one’s lifetime could be driving these higher death rates. As mentioned earlier, there are several common colds that are corona viruses. Older populations have much higher exposure rates and in turn more antibodies to these common cold viruses. I believe COVID-19 exploits these antibodies through ADE to gain entry at a much higher rate, is more infective, and more lethal due to this mechanism in these older populations. ——— What does all of this mean for our future? Thank you OP. Great stuff. I agree with your hypothesis above. It explains the age factor. What do you surmise explains the male vs. female disparity? Thank you. I actually think it's a poor hypothesis. I believe most people are exposed to the majority of corona virus' by the time they reach middle school. Schools are literally Petri dishes with every infection known to man floating around constantly. Those antibodies have been created long before you've reached a ripe old age. |
JADR+
User ID: 78331155 Australia 04/14/2020 09:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Anyone who has been curious, and looked in the current research realizes the following facts: 1) Mild cases of Covid19 result in long term organ damage & immunity issues 2) 2nd wave will result in people dying like flies .. just like the videos we have seen from Wuhan 3) there will be no herd immunity in the shot term 4) there will be no vaccine in the short term I'm a J & proud zio. OrangeManBad NFTs: [link to opensea.io (secure)] FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions JADR+ |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 04/14/2020 09:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Zalinsky
User ID: 45481864 United States 04/14/2020 09:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey OP, What I found most interesting in all of that is the concept that the antibodies from some very specific previous CVs may have particularly strong ADE responses. That's the first explanation I've seen for the weird regional behavior of COVID-19. As contagious as it is, it should really be blossoming everywhere, but it may only be bad in regions where a particular cold was circulating in the past that left specific antibodies. It would explain why you see such a big outbreak in NYC but nothing similar in SF or Chicago, which both should have had plenty of people arriving to seed the areas with COVID-19. Perhaps all those cities got sprayed equally with with COVID-19 shedders, but only the NYC population had the CV resume (CV CV - haha) to trigger a bad response. Here's the shitty part for me personally. I live in NY and have had plenty of colds over the years and presumably have plenty of antibodies. If your theory is right, there is a good chance some future mutation of COVID-19 will have the key to unlock an ADE response in me. That blows. And unless I want to be playing Russian roulette every winter, I need a solution. How about this? There must be huge regional sections of the global population that do not have much experience with coronaviruses. I don't know much about coronaviruses, but I believe most of them don't do well in the heat. Would moving to one of these regions be the answer? The heat would presumably provide some protection, and since the populations would have very thin CV histories, they would be unlikely to have their own bad reactions if they were exposed to some future iteration of COVID-19. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77407179 Canada 04/14/2020 09:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77407179 Canada 04/14/2020 09:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78739682 United States 04/14/2020 09:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "What if I told you that there is a mechanism by which SAR-CoV-2 could reinfect and be even more lethal amongst those reinfected than the first infection?" Quoting: SiniXster the Dread One of my closest friends fell ill with flu like symptoms in early Feb, said he felt terrible for about a week, but then recovered fully. Two weeks later he woke feeling bad again, a few hours later he called his GF complaining of serious trouble breathing, she called EMS and headed to his house. Within 18 minutes of that call he was dead. He was revived at the scene, but pronounced brain dead an hour later at the hospital. Cause of death was called "unknown", doctors stated his lungs had filled with fluid very quickly and he had drowned. Sound familiar? So sorry for your loss - that's terrible. They didn't classify the cause of death as a result of the coronavirus...? That's crazy. I have my own theory based partly on some early intel that came out about it and partly just on some intuition that it's really a binary pathogen. But my theory was based on the period of time between the 2 phases being possibly several weeks or even months between - not just a few weeks. That's pretty scary. Chris Martenson had something on PeakProsperity about what actually causes death with covid, and what you described happened to your friend mirrors very closely what he said - check it out if you haven't seen it: |
Saneromeo
User ID: 73482407 United States 04/14/2020 10:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | PINK EYE, NAUSEA AND VOMITING? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77067311 Give me a FUCKING break. My local TV station just mentioned pink eye as a "covid symptom." Ok whatever people, next it will be a rash and hiccups and ear discharge and toe blisters and what-the-fuck-ever-else. Color me a disbeliever in ALL of this goofy nonsense. In the big covid thread very early on, I remember reading that red eyes was a symptom they were seeing in Wuhan. Also kept saying the eye was a vector for infection and pushing eyewear as well so might not be bs. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78671031 United States 04/14/2020 10:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you the dude from Zerosense that posted some amazing stuff. Actually, best stuff I've read on the topic...and most disturbing. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77705376 [link to barbarous-reliquary.36082.n8.nabble.com] I'm still processing this one Just Wow. Thanks...I suppose. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78223802 Belgium 04/14/2020 10:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | bubonic plague killed an estimated 50 million people. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78796793 Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million people. Smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people. Despite the massive carnage none of these were an ELE event. While still horrible, Covid19 has killed 125,000 people world wide. And you are calling this a potential ELE event? There's no data to suggest this disease is anything other than a blip on the radar and in the grand scheme of things is totally insignificant. Who is the researcher. Where comes the money for his research. |
Blan Halen
User ID: 77256733 United States 04/14/2020 10:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 75327296 United States 04/14/2020 10:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78092489 United States 04/14/2020 10:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The ADE thing would explain why little kids don't seem to be as affected... And I also agree with the possibility of what the other poster says, where they think this is a slow cooking ELE Don't mind the bsflags... there's nothing you can do about those tards. |
Prayandprepare000
User ID: 74008004 United States 04/14/2020 10:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you the dude from Zerosense that posted some amazing stuff. Actually, best stuff I've read on the topic...and most disturbing. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77705376 [link to barbarous-reliquary.36082.n8.nabble.com] I'm still processing this one Whew. Read the whole thing. Powerful. Glad I know I am going to Jesus. |
Anonymous Coward 2
User ID: 19778563 United States 04/14/2020 10:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | PINK EYE, NAUSEA AND VOMITING? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77067311 Give me a FUCKING break. My local TV station just mentioned pink eye as a "covid symptom." Ok whatever people, next it will be a rash and hiccups and ear discharge and toe blisters and what-the-fuck-ever-else. Color me a disbeliever in ALL of this goofy nonsense. [link to nypost.com (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78092489 United States 04/14/2020 10:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey OP, Quoting: Zalinsky What I found most interesting in all of that is the concept that the antibodies from some very specific previous CVs may have particularly strong ADE responses. That's the first explanation I've seen for the weird regional behavior of COVID-19. As contagious as it is, it should really be blossoming everywhere, but it may only be bad in regions where a particular cold was circulating in the past that left specific antibodies. It would explain why you see such a big outbreak in NYC but nothing similar in SF or Chicago, which both should have had plenty of people arriving to seed the areas with COVID-19. Perhaps all those cities got sprayed equally with with COVID-19 shedders, but only the NYC population had the CV resume (CV CV - haha) to trigger a bad response. Here's the shitty part for me personally. I live in NY and have had plenty of colds over the years and presumably have plenty of antibodies. If your theory is right, there is a good chance some future mutation of COVID-19 will have the key to unlock an ADE response in me. That blows. And unless I want to be playing Russian roulette every winter, I need a solution. How about this? There must be huge regional sections of the global population that do not have much experience with coronaviruses. I don't know much about coronaviruses, but I believe most of them don't do well in the heat. Would moving to one of these regions be the answer? The heat would presumably provide some protection, and since the populations would have very thin CV histories, they would be unlikely to have their own bad reactions if they were exposed to some future iteration of COVID-19. Lol, I always wanted to live somewhere tropical... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78223802 Belgium 04/14/2020 10:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great thread, seriously. Quoting: BFD The ADE thing would explain why little kids don't seem to be as affected... And I also agree with the possibility of what the other poster says, where they think this is a slow cooking ELE Don't mind the bsflags... there's nothing you can do about those tards. Its from 2018 the research. |