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Republican Primary County Map & Data Breakdown - Final results | |
| Geos
Offer Upgrade  User ID: 586866  United States04/06/2016 08:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/06/2016 08:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's a likely scenario to get to 1237 delegates. [link to twitter.com (secure)] If I were betting I would switch IN and WV. WV is more likely of a Trump win imo, than IN. Gotta find the total votes for each candidate and post as well. Another good map. [link to www.nytimes.com] Delegate Count (4 different sources, all different tallies) ---- Republican: Trump: 1542 Cruz: 559 Kasich: 161 Rubio: 165 Democrat: Clinton: 2777 (574 super) Sanders: 1876 (48 super) Last Edited by Geos on 06/09/2016 02:07 AM |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/06/2016 11:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Found the actual voting numbers so far through NY for the top 4 candidates. Trump: 13,300,472 Cruz: 7,637,262 Kasich: 4,165,281 Rubio: 3,481,610 For comparison the Democrats Clinton: 15,729,913 Sanders: 12,009,562 Last Edited by Geos on 06/09/2016 02:13 AM |
| trumpsupporter
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| trumpsupporter
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| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 12:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks. Once I added up the total votes, it made me feel better that Trump has gotten about 2 million more votes than Lyin' Ted. For anyone wondering what the rest of the race looks like in terms of open, closed and proportional primaries. [link to www.realclearpolitics.com] |
| Abiogenesis
User ID: 71079926 United States04/07/2016 01:02 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's a likely scenario to get to 1237 delegates. Quoting: Geos [link to twitter.com (secure)] If I were betting I would switch IN and WV. WV is more likely of a Trump win imo, than IN. Gotta find the total votes for each candidate and post as well. Another good map. [link to www.nytimes.com] Unfortunately, his/her projections are flawed. He has all 172 Cal delegates going to Trump as a WTA state. INCORRECT. That is old. California is divided proportionally by congressional districts. Trump will likely get about 80-90 dels out of Cali when all is said and done. It will be very difficult for him to reach the threshold. |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 01:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's a likely scenario to get to 1237 delegates. Quoting: Geos [link to twitter.com (secure)] If I were betting I would switch IN and WV. WV is more likely of a Trump win imo, than IN. Gotta find the total votes for each candidate and post as well. Another good map. [link to www.nytimes.com] Unfortunately, his/her projections are flawed. He has all 172 Cal delegates going to Trump as a WTA state. INCORRECT. That is old. California is divided proportionally by congressional districts. Trump will likely get about 80-90 dels out of Cali when all is said and done. It will be very difficult for him to reach the threshold. I think he gets more 80-90. The West Coast is totally different than areas further east where Cruz will do well. Say you chop off 20% of the 172 CA delegates, I still come up with 1250. Trump just needs to stay above 55%. NY, CT, RI, NJ, DE, PA are very likely for him to win. WV and MD are probably in the likely category. IN a toss up I would say. NE, SD probably Cruz along with MT and CO. NM could go either way I think. Then I think CA is very likely Trump and OR and WA is likely for Trump. Last Edited by Geos on 04/07/2016 01:16 AM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 70553666 United States04/07/2016 01:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| trumpsupporter
User ID: 9203097 United States04/07/2016 01:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's a likely scenario to get to 1237 delegates. Quoting: Geos [link to twitter.com (secure)] If I were betting I would switch IN and WV. WV is more likely of a Trump win imo, than IN. Gotta find the total votes for each candidate and post as well. Another good map. [link to www.nytimes.com] Unfortunately, his/her projections are flawed. He has all 172 Cal delegates going to Trump as a WTA state. INCORRECT. That is old. California is divided proportionally by congressional districts. Trump will likely get about 80-90 dels out of Cali when all is said and done. It will be very difficult for him to reach the threshold. I think he gets more 80-90. The West Coast is totally different than areas further east where Cruz will do well. Say you chop off 20% of the 172 CA delegates, I still come up with 1250. Trump just needs to stay above 55%. NY, CT, RI, NJ, DE, PA are very likely for him to win. WV and MD are probably in the likely category. IN a toss up I would say. NE, SD probably Cruz along with MT and CO. NM could go either way I think. Then I think CA is very likely Trump and OR and WA is likely for Trump. Actually, according to the New York Times he needs far less than 55% of the rest of the delegates to reach to 1237. NYT Delegate Calculator: Trump needs 43-47% of remaining delegates to hit 1237; Cruz has no path to 1237 - [link to nyti.ms] |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 01:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's a likely scenario to get to 1237 delegates. Quoting: Geos [link to twitter.com (secure)] If I were betting I would switch IN and WV. WV is more likely of a Trump win imo, than IN. Gotta find the total votes for each candidate and post as well. Another good map. [link to www.nytimes.com] Unfortunately, his/her projections are flawed. He has all 172 Cal delegates going to Trump as a WTA state. INCORRECT. That is old. California is divided proportionally by congressional districts. Trump will likely get about 80-90 dels out of Cali when all is said and done. It will be very difficult for him to reach the threshold. I think he gets more 80-90. The West Coast is totally different than areas further east where Cruz will do well. Say you chop off 20% of the 172 CA delegates, I still come up with 1250. Trump just needs to stay above 55%. NY, CT, RI, NJ, DE, PA are very likely for him to win. WV and MD are probably in the likely category. IN a toss up I would say. NE, SD probably Cruz along with MT and CO. NM could go either way I think. Then I think CA is very likely Trump and OR and WA is likely for Trump. Actually, according to the New York Times he needs far less than 55% of the rest of the delegates to reach to 1237. NYT Delegate Calculator: Trump needs 43-47% of remaining delegates to hit 1237; Cruz has no path to 1237 - [link to nyti.ms] Doh! You told me that earlier. Let me check that out. Edit: Yeah 45%+ to be safer. I know more stealing is going to happen, but Cruz is in for some more cold shoulders in the Northeast. What I like to know is why every site I go to have a different delegate total for Donald. RealClearPolitics is 743, CNN is 746, under your link it is 742. I think I saw one where he was 748. [link to www.cnn.com] Last Edited by Geos on 04/07/2016 01:37 AM |
| trumpsupporter
User ID: 9203097 United States04/07/2016 01:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Abiogenesis Unfortunately, his/her projections are flawed. He has all 172 Cal delegates going to Trump as a WTA state. INCORRECT. That is old. California is divided proportionally by congressional districts. Trump will likely get about 80-90 dels out of Cali when all is said and done. It will be very difficult for him to reach the threshold. I think he gets more 80-90. The West Coast is totally different than areas further east where Cruz will do well. Say you chop off 20% of the 172 CA delegates, I still come up with 1250. Trump just needs to stay above 55%. NY, CT, RI, NJ, DE, PA are very likely for him to win. WV and MD are probably in the likely category. IN a toss up I would say. NE, SD probably Cruz along with MT and CO. NM could go either way I think. Then I think CA is very likely Trump and OR and WA is likely for Trump. Actually, according to the New York Times he needs far less than 55% of the rest of the delegates to reach to 1237. NYT Delegate Calculator: Trump needs 43-47% of remaining delegates to hit 1237; Cruz has no path to 1237 - [link to nyti.ms] Doh! You told me that earlier. Let me check that out. Edit: Yeah 45%+ to be safer. I know more stealing is going to happen, but Cruz is in for some more cold shoulders in the Northeast. What I like to know is why every site I go to have a different delegate total for Donald. RealClearPolitics is 743, CNN is 746, under your link it is 742. I think I saw one where he was 748. [link to www.cnn.com] It's because of what is known as "soft delegates" or "unbound delegates". The former are delegates that have not been allocated yet due to uncertain results, such as the one in Missouri. Although that is fishy becauuse Missouri has already certified the vote, so I have no idea why CNN and oithers are still saying they have not been allocated. The unbound delegates are those that are never bound to vote for any one candidate and vote for whomever they please even on the first ballot. These only make up less than 5% of the delegates, so they are statistically irrelevant for our purposes. Trump will handily win most of the 95 New York delegates. He is more than likely to win pretty hefty majorities in the remaining north east states. Trump will likely clear 80% of the delegates in California, if not more. And I expect Trump to take most of the delegates in WA and OR. Just that very conservative scenario puts Trump close to 1317 delegates by June 8th. |
| Geos
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| trumpsupporter
User ID: 9203097 United States04/07/2016 02:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's going to come down to June 7th for sure. Quoting: Geos Anywhere near 1300 would be awesome and it would be very criminal if the RNC denied the nomination at that point. Well, they can't deny him the nomination if he has 1300. The problem is, according to Roger Stone, Rience is walking around with a piece of paper that says Trump will only be "allowed" to get 1208 delegates by the time June 7th voting is over. Now, how he plans to do this, I have no idea, but I imagine it has to do with cheating, fraud etc. So Stone's solution is for millions of us to show up in Cleveland and demonstrate so that doesn't happen. But it seems to me a BETTER solution is to try and prevent Rience from doing his plan and allow Trump to get over the 1237 which he can easily do as long as there is no vote tampering. So, how did we do that? PRAYER. |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 02:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's going to come down to June 7th for sure. Quoting: Geos Anywhere near 1300 would be awesome and it would be very criminal if the RNC denied the nomination at that point. Well, they can't deny him the nomination if he has 1300. The problem is, according to Roger Stone, Rience is walking around with a piece of paper that says Trump will only be "allowed" to get 1208 delegates by the time June 7th voting is over. Now, how he plans to do this, I have no idea, but I imagine it has to do with cheating, fraud etc. So Stone's solution is for millions of us to show up in Cleveland and demonstrate so that doesn't happen. But it seems to me a BETTER solution is to try and prevent Rience from doing his plan and allow Trump to get over the 1237 which he can easily do as long as there is no vote tampering. So, how did we do that? PRAYER. I heard that. What if Cruz really screws up something, or something comes out about him - then Priebus will be panicking. I pray for Donald and his family and that people will wake up and see Cruz and Priebus as crooks/liars. |
| trumpsupporter
User ID: 9203097 United States04/07/2016 02:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's going to come down to June 7th for sure. Quoting: Geos Anywhere near 1300 would be awesome and it would be very criminal if the RNC denied the nomination at that point. Well, they can't deny him the nomination if he has 1300. The problem is, according to Roger Stone, Rience is walking around with a piece of paper that says Trump will only be "allowed" to get 1208 delegates by the time June 7th voting is over. Now, how he plans to do this, I have no idea, but I imagine it has to do with cheating, fraud etc. So Stone's solution is for millions of us to show up in Cleveland and demonstrate so that doesn't happen. But it seems to me a BETTER solution is to try and prevent Rience from doing his plan and allow Trump to get over the 1237 which he can easily do as long as there is no vote tampering. So, how did we do that? PRAYER. I heard that. What if Cruz really screws up something, or something comes out about him - then Priebus will be panicking. I pray for Donald and his family and that people will wake up and see Cruz and Priebus as crooks/liars. Yes, a good prayer would be, whatever is hidden in darkness, let it be brought to light!!! |
| Geos
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| trumpsupporter
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| Anonymous Coward User ID: 2712120 United States04/07/2016 04:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 06:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Found the actual voting numbers so far through WI for the top 4 candidates. Quoting: Geos Trump: 8,204,676 Cruz: 6,268,545 Kasich: 2,802,662 Rubio: 3,366,565 So Kasich is still in it, but Rubio had more votes - even to this point. This is so fucked up. WHO'S paying Kasich to remain in as spoiler????? I know isn't that F'ed up!?. Rubio's popularity just tanked before Florida. People realized he was just a robot. Yeah...  --- Here's how many Carson got for anyone interested. 572,788 I would imagine Carson's delegates would go to Trump in the end. Last Edited by Geos on 04/07/2016 06:19 PM |
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| trumpsupporter
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| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/07/2016 09:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks to everyone with kind comments. I would like everyone to see the stats for awhile at least. Yeah I had to write down all the numbers from the NY Times site. [link to www.nytimes.com] And then type them in here. Last Edited by Geos on 04/07/2016 10:20 PM |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/08/2016 12:52 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Interesting to see that Trump did well in the counties bordering WV and PA. Some of them are in the low 50%'s. I would expect him to carry those two states. Really wondering how Indiana will go. Thinking Kasich could pick off some eastern IN counties, just because of the proximity effect. Then you look along the IL/IN border and Trump did pretty good there. Seems like Cruz might be favored in southern IN, by looking at those KY counties bordering. This primary is on May 3rd, got a little while yet. I don't think Trump will have any issues cleaning up north of VA. Probably going to take NJ, CT, AND RI WITH NY OVER 50%. Last Edited by Geos on 04/08/2016 01:30 AM |
| trumpsupporter
User ID: 9203097 United States04/08/2016 02:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just looking at the map, Trump can win almost anywhere. There's voter fraud involved no doubt that has probably turned some counties to Cruz - and I'm thinking in the case of Ohio to Kasich. Quoting: Geos Interesting to see that Trump did well in the counties bordering WV and PA. Some of them are in the low 50%'s. I would expect him to carry those two states. Really wondering how Indiana will go. Thinking Kasich could pick off some eastern IN counties, just because of the proximity effect. Then you look along the IL/IN border and Trump did pretty good there. Seems like Cruz might be favored in southern IN, by looking at those KY counties bordering. This primary is on May 3rd, got a little while yet. I don't think Trump will have any issues cleaning up north of VA. Probably going to take NJ, CT, AND RI WITH NY OVER 50%. And remember, Trump WILL take Oregon! :) |
| Geos
(OP) User ID: 586866 United States04/08/2016 01:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just looking at the map, Trump can win almost anywhere. There's voter fraud involved no doubt that has probably turned some counties to Cruz - and I'm thinking in the case of Ohio to Kasich. Quoting: Geos Interesting to see that Trump did well in the counties bordering WV and PA. Some of them are in the low 50%'s. I would expect him to carry those two states. Really wondering how Indiana will go. Thinking Kasich could pick off some eastern IN counties, just because of the proximity effect. Then you look along the IL/IN border and Trump did pretty good there. Seems like Cruz might be favored in southern IN, by looking at those KY counties bordering. This primary is on May 3rd, got a little while yet. I don't think Trump will have any issues cleaning up north of VA. Probably going to take NJ, CT, AND RI WITH NY OVER 50%. And remember, Trump WILL take Oregon! :) Are you in western or eastern Oregon? I figure Cruz will take some counties in eastern WA and OR. My relatives in western WA, say they've seen some Trump support. --- New Maryland poll, Trump +10. 41% [link to www.realclearpolitics.com] New New York poll, Trump +34. 56% [link to twitter.com (secure)] The rest of the states need to get with it for polls. |
| trumpsupporter
User ID: 69711385 United States04/08/2016 01:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just looking at the map, Trump can win almost anywhere. There's voter fraud involved no doubt that has probably turned some counties to Cruz - and I'm thinking in the case of Ohio to Kasich. Quoting: Geos Interesting to see that Trump did well in the counties bordering WV and PA. Some of them are in the low 50%'s. I would expect him to carry those two states. Really wondering how Indiana will go. Thinking Kasich could pick off some eastern IN counties, just because of the proximity effect. Then you look along the IL/IN border and Trump did pretty good there. Seems like Cruz might be favored in southern IN, by looking at those KY counties bordering. This primary is on May 3rd, got a little while yet. I don't think Trump will have any issues cleaning up north of VA. Probably going to take NJ, CT, AND RI WITH NY OVER 50%. And remember, Trump WILL take Oregon! :) Are you in western or eastern Oregon? I figure Cruz will take some counties in eastern WA and OR. My relatives in western WA, say they've seen some Trump support. --- New Maryland poll, Trump +10. 41% [link to www.realclearpolitics.com] New New York poll, Trump +34. 56% [link to twitter.com (secure)] The rest of the states need to get with it for polls. I'm in far northwest Oregon - Portland, Oregon. I'm surrounded by a sea of Bernie Sanders supporters. I believe the western third of Oregon will go Trump over Cruz and since the population centers are in the western third of Oregon, Trump should easily carry Oregon. |
| trumpsupporter
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| trumpsupporter
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