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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Simple27

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10/29/2021 11:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION: Here it comes. A coronal mass ejection (CME) launched into space on Oct. 28th by exploding sunspot AR2887 is heading almost directly for Earth. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the CME racing away from the sun faster than 1260 km/s (2.8 million mph):

https://imgur.com/fb8KMJo


The movie is full of "snow"--speckles caused by solar protons striking the coronagraph's CCD camera. These particles were accelerated toward the spacecraft (and toward Earth) by shock waves in the leading edge of the CME. Traveling at relativistic speeds, the protons reached us in less than an hour. The CME itself will take more than two days to cross the sun-Earth divide. ETA: Oct. 30th.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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10/29/2021 04:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SOLAR RADIO BURST: Who says explosions in space make no sound? Yesterday's X1-class solar flare created a loud burst of static in shortwave radio receivers on Earth. Click to hear what emerged from Thomas Ashcraft's loudspeaker in rural New Mexico: [link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

"I captured the X1 flare on my spectrograph and audio recorders," says Ashcraft. "It was super dynamic. It is not often to see a solar radio event showing up in purple range on my radio telescope."

Astronomers classify solar radio bursts into 5 types. Ashcraft recorded a mixture of Type II and Type V. These are caused, respectively, by shock waves and electron beams moving through the sun's atmosphere in the aftermath of strong flares.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
joinca

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10/29/2021 08:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Isis One

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10/29/2021 11:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Kp has risen to unsettled conditions.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Helios Maximus

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10/29/2021 11:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Kp has risen to unsettled conditions.
 Quoting: Isis One


Howdy, Isis One hihugs.....

....so you're saying that SWPC's prediction is already wrong, LOL.

There's no Kp4 today on the chart posted above...jes' sayin'. They check on all their supercomputer models and then go throw another dart on the CME dartboard. Occasionally they score a bullseye but that's rare event.

Their original forecast was for G1 to G3, leaving a wide margin of error. It would take a G4 Storm or no storm at all to make liars out of them. CYA technique, lol.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 12:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The biggest cyclone in the solar system is bigger than it looks.....

NASA’s Juno mission has obtained measurements that finally say just how deep the Great Red Spot goes.

....'Parisi and colleagues report that the Great Red Spot extends at most 500 km down. The bulk of the storm’s mass is probably within the top 300 km or so.

“Most of scientific community was thinking the Great Red Spot was shallow,” Parisi says. “We were surprised that it goes so deep.”'

Full article here:

[link to skyandtelescope.org (secure)]

jupiter10/2011
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
WhiteAngel
also known as WA

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10/30/2021 12:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question because I haven't seen anything reported.

There were 2 M's before the X-flare and 1 M after.

Were CME's generated by the three of them? If so, will the CME's piggy-back or merge together to form one big bang?

Just curious

sneaky
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 12:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question because I haven't seen anything reported.

There were 2 M's before the X-flare and 1 M after.

Were CME's generated by the three of them? If so, will the CME's piggy-back or merge together to form one big bang?

Just curious

sneaky
 Quoting: WhiteAngel


NO, there were no Earth-directed CMEs besides the X-flare halo CME. There was a slow 'light bulb' shaped CME in progress far-side before the X. It appeared in the same SoHO C2 images and may have confused folks.

SEEDS CME movie (I hope you can see this because it won't play on my computer):
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS Latest CME list:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 01:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A new small sunspot emerged in the north near mid-disk but was ignored by NOAA. The largest region AR2891 should be classified Beta-Gamma; it still has mixed polarities in the leading area and the intermediate spots. Strong flares are still possible.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 303 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2886 S19W81 334 0100 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
2887 S26W21 274 0250 Dhi 10 22 Beta-Gamma
2889 S23E03 250 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
2891 N17E41 212 0350 Dki 09 16 Beta

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

AR2891-

:2891_HMIIC:
:2891_HMIBC:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/30/2021 01:06 AM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
WhiteAngel
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10/30/2021 01:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question because I haven't seen anything reported.

There were 2 M's before the X-flare and 1 M after.

Were CME's generated by the three of them? If so, will the CME's piggy-back or merge together to form one big bang?

Just curious

sneaky
 Quoting: WhiteAngel


NO, there were no Earth-directed CMEs besides the X-flare halo CME. There was a slow 'light bulb' shaped CME in progress far-side before the X. It appeared in the same SoHO C2 images and may have confused folks.

SEEDS CME movie (I hope you can see this because it won't play on my computer):
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS Latest CME list:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Thank you hon hugs
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
The Oracle's Cookie

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10/30/2021 03:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question because I haven't seen anything reported.

There were 2 M's before the X-flare and 1 M after.

Were CME's generated by the three of them? If so, will the CME's piggy-back or merge together to form one big bang?

Just curious

sneaky
 Quoting: WhiteAngel


NO, there were no Earth-directed CMEs besides the X-flare halo CME. There was a slow 'light bulb' shaped CME in progress far-side before the X. It appeared in the same SoHO C2 images and may have confused folks.

SEEDS CME movie (I hope you can see this because it won't play on my computer):
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS Latest CME list:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Thank you hon hugs
 Quoting: WhiteAngel


It's funny Helios that you say there isn't any other
CME heading our way because this video (below) I just
posted on the Volcano thread has BPEarthwatch reporting
that there are actually at least one other CME heading our direction
at the same time as the X-class Flare is coming in. He
also reports that this X-Class CME will be EARLY and
may actually come in as soon as 10:00 A.M. EST TOMORROW
rather than the Sunday "hit" expected. Don't know what
to think but here is the info. Let me know if you have
any other links that can verify only ONE CME as I am
pretty sensitive to these puppies and they make me ill.
Thanks!

You know the CME that is incoming. There is something everyone is forgetting, there were 2 M flares before and 1 after the X flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Does that mean the first two which are slower will merge with the X?

Could be an interesting weekend for those who follow solar activity
 Quoting: WhiteAngel


Edited 1:33 A.M. 10-30-2021
Just wanted to add...Depending on who is EARTHFACING
(I believe the U.S.A. will be in near daylight at the
time of projected CME hit--lucky US!) we will definitely
want to be watching the La Palma volcano after 10:00 A.M. EST
for an up-tick in activity...and throughout the afternoon.
I can't imagine this level of exotic energy wouldn't have
an effect on the magma/crust below La Palma.


This is for you White Angel--not sure everyone else will
be interested or not. I love BPearthwatch but his videos
aren't EVERYONE's "cup of tea"--he tends to be long-winded
but his information is always very accurate and engaging.
I love his accent as it reminds me of my late husband's
North Carolina accent (he passed in 2013.)

Anyways, if you CAN try to watch both videos as they
dove-tail nicely. The second one (below) gives the specifics
on the ARRIVAL TIME (between 8:00 A.M. to 10:00 A.M. EST
TOMORROW)...but given there are more than one CME's coming
in it doesn't mean Sunday is off the table either. (I'm going
to TRY to be ASLEEP WHEN THIS BOOGYMAN ARRIVES because in
the sleep state it is less damaging to your brain (I've
heard this--no link tho.) Being "asleep during the incoming
wave" was the advice given by that Dr. Atkins from Uruguay
who kept tabs on an in-coming space-wave that came in way
back in 2014. I've always remembered that advice.

Here ya go:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

BPEarthwatch finds a SIMILAR SITUATION FROM A PAST
GEO-STORM TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

SHORTER update...He's saying 10:00 AM EST tomorrow
may be the arrival time as the VELOCITY is much faster
than they originally thought. Left the sun at 2 million
miles per hour...so it's coming early!


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE
Short update for ARRIVAL TIME of X-Flare/CME. He
is thinking the "M-class CME" will arrive slightly
BEFORE the X-class and given that this will essentially
"clear the PATH" for the bigger CME it could ALSO
INTENSIFY ITS EFFECTS. (That is concerning me.)

Be safe everyone! Brace yourself for tomorrow and
Sunday.

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
 Quoting: The Oracle's Cookie

The Oracle's Cookie

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10/30/2021 03:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This was posted on "Skywatchers" group on Earthboppin.net
site by GLP member Wubbo...

[link to earthboppin.net]

Cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 12:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
RESPONSE TO O's COOKIE--3rd attempt.....wtf

BPEarthwatch is a well-known crank. He knows next to nothing about astronomy. He also said Comet ISON would crash into the Earth...it couldn't. You can find all the CMEs recorded at CACTus (EU) and SEEDS (US). SEEDS highlights the Earth-directed ones in RED and the potential glancing blows in YELLOW. There was no CME from the M2 flare; that bubble CME on the NW limb was not Earth-directed.

Don't believe anything BP says. He's good at making videos selling DOOM and getting lots of clicks by my making ridiculous claims.

By the way, the CME is 6 hours later (so far) than he predicted.

tomato
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 01:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
My spidey sense is telling me impact may be close.Follow the solar wind parameters here in realTime.

ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

DSCVR:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

These thing never seem to arrive on schedule.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
RubyV82

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10/30/2021 01:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
My spidey sense is telling me impact may be close.Follow the solar wind parameters here in realTime.

ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

DSCVR:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

These thing never seem to arrive on schedule.
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


I was just thinking the exact same thing Helios hf
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2021 01:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Alerts are not loading

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2021 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In our household, all are experiencing headaches/head pressure.
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 01:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Brief educational explanation of ICMEs and Interplanetary shocks:

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

NASA's CCMC has a secret list of CME arrival predictions (guesses?). The predictions vary wildly considering these folks are top scientists. CME travel time varies from 27 hours to 56 hours; and predicted max Kp ranges from a Kp4 to Kp8.

These chumps are just as clueless as we at GLP in making solid predictions. It's like guessing the number of jellybeans in a giant jar, LOL.

Read it if you dare:

[link to kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

abduct
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 01:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In our household, all are experiencing headaches/head pressure.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72204748


Great! I had diarrhea this morning, but I blame the Guinness more than the stars.

My advice-take 2 aspirin and get away from GLP for awhile. It always works for my headaches.

banana2iamwith
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 02:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Proton density has gradually climbed to as high as 37 p/m, but no observable shock in the SW velocity.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
OpenEnded..
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10/30/2021 02:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
RESPONSE TO O's COOKIE--3rd attempt.....wtf

BPEarthwatch is a well-known crank. He knows next to nothing about astronomy. He also said Comet ISON would crash into the Earth...it couldn't. You can find all the CMEs recorded at CACTus (EU) and SEEDS (US). SEEDS highlights the Earth-directed ones in RED and the potential glancing blows in YELLOW. There was no CME from the M2 flare; that bubble CME on the NW limb was not Earth-directed.

Don't believe anything BP says. He's good at making videos selling DOOM and getting lots of clicks by my making ridiculous claims.

By the way, the CME is 6 hours later (so far) than he predicted.

tomato
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


well said H, hi y'all..

too many cranks out there..

1st good impact in a while, fashionably late:)..

this is interesting..

OpenEnded..
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In our household, all are experiencing headaches/head pressure.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72204748


Great! I had diarrhea this morning, but I blame the Guinness more than the stars.

My advice-take 2 aspirin and get away from GLP for awhile. It always works for my headaches.

banana2iamwith
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


tmi..

usually dehydration causes headaches, especially during solar storms..
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 02:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The ACE plot showed a brief density spike up too 100 p/cm3.

I'm going to assume this was caused by a bad data reading. It happens more than you think ;)

drevil
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 02:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In our household, all are experiencing headaches/head pressure.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72204748


Great! I had diarrhea this morning, but I blame the Guinness more than the stars.

My advice-take 2 aspirin and get away from GLP for awhile. It always works for my headaches.

banana2iamwith
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


tmi..

usually dehydration causes headaches, especially during solar storms..
 Quoting: OpenEnded.. 79400501


Howdy, OpenEndedhi Long time no see.

One quick point- we haven't had a solar storm yet. The predicted geomagnetic storm hasn't begun.....
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/30/2021 02:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Replay of Thursday's Tamitha Skov livestream about the X-flare eruption.



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Simple27

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10/30/2021 02:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Patiently waiting

MODELLING THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION: NOAA forecasters have a sophisticated computer program called "WSA-ENLIL," which models the propagation of CMEs through interplanetary space. Here is the latest model for the CME now approaching Earth:

https://imgur.com/WYbYSPg


The computer model predicts that the CME will make first contact with our planet around 1800 UT on Oct. 30th. If so, the timing would favor aurora viewing in Europe where night would be falling at the time of arrival. The model also predicts a sharp increase in solar wind speed (800 km/s) and a 5-fold jump in solar wind density in the CME's wake. Such conditions, if they materialize, could fuel a long-lasting storm, allowing auroras to be seen hours after impact in North America as well.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2021 03:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In our household, all are experiencing headaches/head pressure.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72204748


Great! I had diarrhea this morning, but I blame the Guinness more than the stars.

My advice-take 2 aspirin and get away from GLP for awhile. It always works for my headaches.

banana2iamwith
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


tmi..

usually dehydration causes headaches, especially during solar storms..
 Quoting: OpenEnded.. 79400501


Howdy, OpenEndedhi Long time no see.

One quick point- we haven't had a solar storm yet. The predicted geomagnetic storm hasn't begun.....
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


yes, I'm watching Ace too, it's still late..

the CME predictors page has a lot failures..
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
HI..I'D LIKE A SMALL SALAD AND GLASS OF WINE.
Simple27

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10/30/2021 03:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz is currently south (-6.5)
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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10/30/2021 03:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~





GLP