SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

WARNING TO ASTRONAUTS!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 320
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 28 1757 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1740 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 476
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 28 1748 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 28 1745 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 87
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 28 1747 UTC

WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 28 1635 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
Serial Number: 45
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 28 1651 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1635 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

I must've had a genuine premonition this morning. The X1 flare indeed began with that large filament I posted about earlier. Sometimes I scare myself.

Trick or Treat?

SDO movie (AIA 193a):

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Other wavelengths here:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Fiery but mostly peaceful CME coming at ya.

:X1.0 CME-ST_A:

No nuts needed.

This day in history

The third most-powerful solar flare ever observed in X-ray wavelengths erupted from Sunspot 486 early October 28, 2003, at approximately 6 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. A coronal mass ejection (CME) directed almost straight at Earth preceded the flare, sending electrically charged gas toward our planet, say NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) scientists. To follow up, the same spot released a large X11 flare Wednesday afternoon and it too is associated with a CME.
To the left, a powerful X11 flare that erupted Wednesday afternoon at 3:48 pm ET, seen with the EIT instrument on SOHO. To the right, Tuesday's record-setting X17.2 flare; both are from Sunspot 486 and Earth-directed, meaning spectacular aurora in areas not usually lucky enough to see them. The Wednesday flare links to a print-resolution version; the Tuesday flare links to a movie of the explosion.
[link to www.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 10/28/2021 05:01 PM

And it's gone

Trying another way...

https://twitter.com/_/status/1453841886788009987

SoHO C2 images are showing a big slow CME in the NW just prior to the X-flare. This was probably a far side filament liftoff. Our X-cme seems much faster and not as dense.

SoHO C2 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/28/2021 07:09 PM

2 M class solar flares were expelled before the X class

CACTus Diagnostics estimates median velocity of CME at 1059 km/s.

CACTus movie of halo CME:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

CACTus CME details:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

This should make for a special Halloween treat.

Thank you

Sure looks cool

Heyyyyyyyy I Always wanted to Say this on Here!

By the Time this thread Was created, I fallow It, and this event triggered Hurricane Maria to get to Cat 5!

I used to fallow GLP, but by That time I didn't have an account or even reply!

Thanks For the info!

Good Evening! :)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 302 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2886 S19W68 334 0100 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2887 S26W08 274 0320 Dkc 09 28 Beta-Gamma
2889 S23E17 249 0030 Bxo 06 04 Beta
2890 S18W52 318 0030 Bxo 06 03 Beta
2891 N18E56 210 0220 Cai 09 10 Beta

AR2887-
:AR2887:
:2887-mag:

AR2891-
:AR2891:
:2891-mag:

Official Dept. of Commerce comments---

Solar Activity .24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels. The period began with a pair of
M-class flares (R1-Minor) from Region 2887 (S26W08, Dkc/beta-gamma). The
first was an M1/1n at 28/0740 UTC followed by an M2/1f at 28/1028 UTC.
At 28/1535 UTC, Region 2887 produced an X1/2n (R3-Strong) flare.
Associated with the event were Type II (1457 km/s S.V.) and Type IV
radio emissions at 28/1529 UTC and 28/1532 UTC, respectively. GOES-16
SUVI 195 imagery observed a large EIT wave at flare maximum along with
ejecta to the SSE observed on GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. Sunlit
geomagnetic stations observed weak (20-25 nT) crochets at about 28/1645
UTC.

Region 2891 (N18E56, Cai/beta) continued to rotate onto the visible
disk and produced low level C-class flaring. Regions 2886 (S19W68,
Hsx/alpha), 2889 (S23E17, Bxo/beta) and 2890 (S18W52, Bxo/beta) were
quiet and unchanged.

A fast, asymmetric Halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at
28/1548 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent model output, suggests CME impact
at Earth early to mid 30 Oct.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong)
levels on 29-31 Oct. This is due to the complexity and history of Region
2887.

M 1.5 from AR2891

GONG pic from Mauna Loa, HI:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Can you imagine what would be happening if it was a BGD??

I don't think we've heard the last outburst from 2891 yet.....

SolarDemon movie of M1.5 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/28/2021 11:19 PM

It may be a Beta-Delta. I should have followed my gut instincts when I posted the region summary above. I was thinking of saying that 2891 could be ready to pop off again after recharging his batteries. I saw a clear delta region in the magneto gram and to me it looks healthier than 'ol 87. The delta I saw is exactly where this M-flare triggered.

Going thru my old archive of 1000+ links for solar and astronomical stuff. Sadly many dead links and extinct websites, etc. But still find some cool stuff I forgot about......



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

CMEs Vs. the Power Grid-



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
WSA-Enlil showing direct hit
[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

2887 is actually 2888

I can't say ive ever seen the sun belt explode before..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

*nearly

The sun is really waking up.

:hidetomato: