SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

https://imgur.com/KmJTWgU

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

..PRETTY MUCH..

Just wanted to get back to the "science" after that
gif of the guy with flailing arms! lol!


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

6 minute update for 8-18-2022...
Ben gives us a 10% chance if all the 'WRONG THINGS"
combine together to create 5 CME impacts at once
for a Carrington-like event. !0% is pretty low, so
I wouldn't stress out. Still...I've got my aspirin
bottle handy for this SOLAR HEADACHE!


The Oracle's Cookie

Yet another big CME today from 3078. Most of the dense energy will miss Earth but a noticeable faint halo will be felt here on the 3rd planet. More geostorming to continue....

STEREO cor 2 Diff. movie:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

C4 LDE with still ANOTHER CME from AR3078!

Quicklook movie of C4 event:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming animation shows mass ejection:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

The sun is puking up all of those comets it devoured, LOL.

This is quite a long train of carloads of plasma.....buy more aspirin.....

Earth-facing AR3081 in the north is also sounding off with 3 C3+ flares.

GONG pics:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Professor Skov's livestream from 2 days ago.....



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

C3.3 flare from 3078-- no visible ejecta this time.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Rather than cut&paste their mumbo jumbo, you can read the entire SWPC Forecast Discussion here:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

The coronal hole dilemma, as articulated by Prof. Skov, may be a moot point from today onward. The relatively thin hole has closed up north of 3078 from all of the ejections. A larger hole near the south pole still persists however. How this will effect future CME impacts remains unknown. We still have several CMEs on the way and they may be missing south or they may snow-plough each other towards Earth. We could see major storming or not much at all.... this is why we watch (to learn new things by observing).

Another M on

goin up still

M1.6

SMPLE! GOT SOMETHING FOR YA...I PICKED UP A HEALTHY NEWS MAG.
AND THERE IS THIS ARTICLE ABOUT 8 SPECIAL ESSENTIAL OILS FOR ANXIETY RELIEF...LET ME KNOW IF U WANT SPECIAL INFO ON ANY OF THEM...1,BERGAMOT2,CLARY SAGE3,FRANKINCENSE4,LAVENDER5,LEMON BALM6,NEROLI7,ROSE8,YLANG YLANG--WHICH SOUNDS LIKE SOMETING ID
GO TO A SPECIAL PART OF TOWN FOR..UH...CAPS.

SMPLE! GOT SOMETHING FOR YA...I PICKED UP A HEALTHY NEWS MAG.
AND THERE IS THIS ARTICLE ABOUT 8 SPECIAL ESSENTIAL OILS FOR ANXIETY RELIEF...LET ME KNOW IF U WANT SPECIAL INFO ON ANY OF THEM...1,BERGAMOT2,CLARY SAGE3,FRANKINCENSE4,LAVENDER5,LEMON BALM6,NEROLI7,ROSE8,YLANG YLANG--WHICH SOUNDS LIKE SOMETING ID
GO TO A SPECIAL PART OF TOWN FOR..UH...CAPS.

Thanks Caps :)

I recently bought a diffuser and some oils. Might fire it up tonight.

Just got this alert...

CME ALERT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is approaching Earth.

CMEs generally arrive 20 to 30 minutes after you receive this email. The full window for possible arrival of the CME is:

From: 2022 August 19 1723 UTC
To: 2022 August 19 1823 UTC

Stay tuned for geomagnetic storms.

A new Bill (4488) is currently awaiting ratification in
Congress that would set up the parameters for "sudden
catastrophic" events and government response. It is a
very big deal (according to Doug Vogt) and I've posted
the material on the last page of Storm2Come's thread
as well as the "Greatest Secret the U.S. Has" thread from
Adragon. You may wish to check it out. Vogt explains why
THIS BILL 4488 is a "game changer" regarding "theories"
that currently circulate among certain researcher (like
himself) finally making headway into mainstream consideration.
(Vogt would like citizens to contact their reps ASAP to get
it passed.)

Just a clue:
Bill 4488 addresses serious threats (there is list on
the video from solar Carrington events to comet-hits
to war) which need specific attention. It doesn't mean
you "aren't on your own"--you are essentially IMHO--but
it does give one a little hope of gov action in the case
of a Carrington Event. UDECIDE!

Thread: Greatest Secret of the United States, Causes of the Ice Age and Nova,


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 08/19/2022 06:48 PM

C6.7 from 3078

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Geomagnetic Storm Update: Outside of the initial hours of impact from the 2 filament CMEs, we've seen almost no density in these winds and the Bz has whipsawed up and down between N & S polarity.. We could see from the SoHO movies that most of the dense clouds were directed south and west of the Sun-Earth plane. We are getting a few dry gusts of solar wind from the outer halo (glancing blows).

ACE Satellite has recorded recent wind velocities more than 700 km/s! This may be from the M5 event.

ACE SWEPAM plot:

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Keep track of the Planetary K-index (Kp) at GFZ (Potsdam).

Kp Nowcast:

[link to isdc.gfz-potsdam.de (secure)]

We should see a few more CME arrivals throughout the weekend. The SW speed should remain elevated and sensitive to changes in the Bz polarity.

SOLAR WIND ALERT: The solar wind is blowing faster than 700 km/s (728 km/s). A strong solar wind storm is in progress.

Additional updates available at SpaceWeather.com.

Kiruna Magnetometer in Sweden has been very active in the past few hours. And it appears that they're seeing a K=7 Storm near the polar regions.

[link to www2.irf.se (secure)]

K-indices from Arctic University of Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Mostly K=6 now.

The northern auroracams are all on summer hiatus at this time... too much sunshine, lol.

Howdy, Simple! Thanks for all of your great updates.

The C6.7 has probably produced another CME...ho-humm. Two weeks ago you couldn't even buy a C1 flare, hehe.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1131
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 19 2108 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2022 Aug 19 2033 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 999 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Hi Hugh! Love you my friend.

SoHO C2 movie shows CME activity from 8/16- 8/18. Add to this the 2 or 3 more today and we have a whopping 6 or more CMEs still out there somewhere. Could be a bumpy ride for a few days.

SoHO C2 movie:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

SoHO records hi-velocity solar wins:

[link to space.umd.edu (secure)]

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3078 (S24W62,
Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the majority of X-ray activity, the
largest of which was an M1/Sn flare at 19/0444 UTC. A Type II (est. 410
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with a tenflare (150 sfu), were
observed with the event. Forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil modelling are
underway for this event and the earlier CME associated with a C4 flare
at 18/2240 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near
the flare site.

Region 3082 (N23E15, Dao/beta), Region 3081 (N16W38, Cao/beta), 3083
(S24E58, Bxo/beta), and Region 3084 (S11E02, Cro/beta) were either
mostly stable or in gradual decay. Region of emerging flux were observed
south of Region 3084 and south of Region 3082.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 20-22 Aug.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS and arrival of one of the
many CMEs that left the sun this week near 19/1700 UTC. Total magnetic
field strength increased from 5-12 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from
near 550 km/s to a peak of 675 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CME influences on
20-22 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the
arrival of the 16-17 Aug CMEs. Analysis and modeling of CME events from
18-19 Aug is ongoing.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels before reaching
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming late on 19 Aug.

.Forecast...
Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with continuing
effects from the 14-15 Aug CMEs, are expected to increase the potential
for G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 20 Aug. Active to
G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 21-22 Aug as additional CME
influence is likely.

NOAA Magnetosphere models (hopefully more accurate than their weather models):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]