SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

In this 24-hr. movie from SDO you can see 2 big filamts erupt and 2 M1-flare (one from 3057 and the latest from 3055). Watch the SW limb at the end of video. Note: this movie perpetually updates so 'the end' will be 'the beginning' tomorrow at this time.

AIA304a movie:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Solarsoft cutout movie of M1.4 from 3055 (AIA 131a):

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Wow!

Both CMEs from erupting filaments are likely to have some Earth-directed components. The one in the north on 7/15 produced a very slow Type II Halo CME. The one yesterday in the SW was slightly faster and should effect a glancing blow at Earth. Nothing major expected but depending on polarity may cause geomagnetic disturbances in a few days. Only one large filament remains near the SW limb.

CACTus details from the 7/16 CME:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Although it doesn't look as imposing as recents sunspots, NOAA has classified AR3058 as Beta-Gamma-Delta. It did produce a C6 flare; the biggest flare of the day.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 198 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Jul 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3053 N15W77 138 0110 Cai 06 05 Beta
3055 S16W52 124 0590 Eki 12 15 Beta
3056 S17W16 078 0200 Eai 12 31 Beta-Gamma
3057 N16E04 057 0320 Ehi 11 16 Beta
3058 N16E38 023 0060 Dai 04 09 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3059 S10E55 006 0180 Dso 07 05 Beta
3060 N13E58 014 0050 Hsx 02 02 Alpha

AR3058/60-

:AR3058/60:

:3058_BGD:

Snapshot of yesterday's filament release after the M1 flare from 3055. You can see at least 3 layers of filamentary plasma. The big fuzzy in the far background on the limb is the same one we watched for 2 weeks-- it just keeps hanging on.

:7/16 filament:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 07/17/2022 05:51 PM

An impulsive C4.8 from Beta-Gamma 3056.

GOES X-Ray Flux ploT.:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

CME arriving now.

Beautiful! Thanks!


The Oracle's Cookie

Despite the lack of major flares (>M5), Cycle 25 has exceeded a Sunspot Number of 160 for only the second time.

Cycle 25 progression:

[link to www.solen.info]

Another slow-moving CME from the SW limb today. Doesn't seem to be Earth-directed but it may add to the mix of glancing blows. Source could be another filament liftoff or an eruptive C2.3 flare from 3056.

SoHO C2 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

STEREO cor 2 difference movie:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

I apologize for this erroneous report. I noticed a sudden impulse in DSCVR solar winds at 11:30z or thereabouts. The anomaly lasted only a half hour and I believe it was bad data from DSCOVR. Velocity jumped from 388 to 500 km/s as density also increased. The Bz flipped from -6 to +6 at the same time. It certainly looked like a transient impact at the time I posted.

DSCOVR 24-hour Solar Winds (check 11130-1200z):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Where's the aspirin....ouuuuccch!

Feelin' it, you guys!

Thanks for the update!


The Oracle's Cookie

:JustGETon:

Those two big coronal holes look kind of menacing.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Jul 19 0859 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Does the sun have monkeypox?



Sunspots are breaking out all over once again. TWO new ARs are born in the NW-- one just east of the 3058/3060 complex and one further to the east. A slightly larger and more mature Alpha spot has come over the SE limb today. If NOAA doesn't run out of numbers these should be ARs 3062, 3063 and 3064 in that order. I believe they dole out numbers from west to east. Unless they diminish, this should keep the SS# high and the x-ray background levels elevated as well. Hopefully we're on the verge of another upswing of flare activity.

HMI latest intensitygram photo from SDO:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

FOR THE RECORD...THE SUN...'HURT' TODAY....UH

I agree, my friend. Trans-equatorial coronal holes that size may cause strong disturbances and even G2 storms. According to Dr. Tony they're expected to reach Earth on the 22nd-23rd. Sunspots near CH's could also get active suddenly. I would expect some aurora shows this weekend. This would be a good time to go camping in the hill country, especially if you're in the sweltering city.

Can’t wait to see what happens!

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on July 20th or 21st when a slow-moving CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space by an unstable filament of magnetism, which erupted on July 15th.

https://imgur.com/ehvPvZe

https://imgur.com/FeY7V8B

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Two recent C4 flares from diverse regions. The first C4 from departing all-star AR3056 (the most active AR in past 2 weeks). SDO was down (!?), but GONG Mauna Loa caught a glimpse:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

The second flare is a currently ongoing C4.2 from newbie AR3062 in the SE. Looks to be a long duration affair.

GOES X-RAy Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Don't get me started on my disgust of NOAA's fake "Sunspot Number". I've recorded 5 DIFFERENT WAYS a sunspot is not really a sunspot (according to NOAA). Yesterday's miscalculation accounted for about 30 points in the SS#. I no longer want to work for NOAA/SWPC, I want to RUN the SWPC. These folks are such imbeciles I couldn't possibly do worse, LOL.

An eruptive C5.6 from Earth-facing 3058/60. Any CME from this would most likely be geoeffective.

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 07/20/2022 10:06 PM

I think the cme forecast for the twentieth arrived on the 19th.

SOLAR TSUNAMI AND CME (UPDATED): Sunspot AR3060 exploded during the early hours of July 21st (0110 UT), producing a C5-class solar flare and a solar tsunami. The "tsunami" is the shadowy shock wave seen racing away from the blast site in this extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://imgur.com/wNBlcUX

Soon after the explosion, the US Air Force reported a Type II solar radio burst--a natural form of radio noise produced by shock waves in the leading edge of a CME. Characteristics of the burst suggested that a CME was tearing through the sun's atmosphere at a speed of 1063 km/s (2.4 million mph).

Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) have since seen the CME:

https://imgur.com/r1F9vjP

In the movie we see a superposition of multiple CMEs. The brightest clouds at the 8 o'clock and 10 o'clock positions may be from farside eruptions. They are not heading for Earth. Of greater interest is a faint full-halo CME which emerges just before 0206 UT. That one was launched by the tsunami and is squarely inside the Earth strike zone. NOAA forecasters expect it to arrive on July 23rd, possible sparking G2-class geomagnetic storms.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

INCREASING CHANCE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: Today's solar tsunami and CME have increased the chance of geomagnetic storms in the days ahead. Right now, three things are heading for Earth: a slow-moving CME that left the sun on July 15th, a high-speed stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere, and a faster CME that left the sun today. Their 1-2-3 arrival on July 21st, 22nd, and 23rd, respectively, could spark G1- to G2-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at high latitudes.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/0C3rpY4

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

LET'S GOOOO!!!

Weekend Storm Watch
July 21, 2022 @ 19:50 UTC

The faint, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed early Thursday following an eruption near center disk has been modeled by NOAA/SWPC. The forecast is calling for a passage past Earth by late on Friday (July 22) and into Saturday morning. The solar wind speed is predicted to be quite high near 800 km/s and this could jolt our geomagnetic field to the tune of at least Minor (G1) to Moderate (G2) storm conditions at higher latitudes. Aurora sky watchers should be alert this weekend. Just like with any other potential CME passage, we must wait for things to unfold in real time before getting a better idea of the full potential. Stay tuned!

https://imgur.com/YV0v7kc

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]