Yeah I don't think there's many who truly believe this will lead to secession let alone civil war. But many of the events we're seeing seem unlikely to be of natural origin for myriad reasons. I don't think it would be a stretch at all for me to say what's happening seems scripted.

So that makes it rather difficult to estimate the result of all this. If the variables are constantly being manipulated, any assumptions about what the conclusion will look like are little more than blind gambles.