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Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!

 
The Don Of Nantucket
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Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]


Overnight, the sky over Iran was lit up by at least two explosions targeting military production facilities: one in Isfahan and one in Tabriz. Whether the two explosions are connected remains unclear as the Isfahan target appears to have been an “ammunitions” factory and the explosion in Tabriz occurred at a motor oil factory. Some sources (here) suggest the list of targets hit might be larger and include the Headquarters of the IRGC and some other military targets.

The regime in Teheran is, somewhat predictably, down-playing the impact of the explosions, noting of the Isfahan attack that one drone was shot down "and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up. [The attack] caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."

At the start of the Asian open, oil markets might be primed to price higher risks to oil supplies out of concern that: (i) Ukraine war might be spilling over into Middle East, (ii) Iran might seek retaliation in the region, or (iii) general unrest in oil producing countries is bad news for supply.

As Iran seems to be downplaying the attacks and no clear culprit has been identified (despite Ukraine’s early response), any spike in oil prices could be driven initially by algorithmic trades immediately at the open and thus likely to fade as more information becomes available.

Will Oil Prices Spike as Markets Price Increased Destabilization?
Previous episodes of violence and explosions involving oil producing countries has led markets to price supply concerns. In somewhat comparable situations, such as Yemen’s missile strikes against Saudi Arabia for instance in March 2022, the oil price reaction function seemed driven in large part out of concern for escalation.


Will Iran close the Straits of Hormuz?


weaver

Last Edited by Don Of N*******t on 01/29/2023 07:22 PM
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The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
"The longer term implications of heightened “homeland” insecurity in Iran might well be a drive in Teheran to consolidate its alliances with Russia and China. The more Iran depends on Russia and China, the fewer diplomatic stepping stones are available to the West to present Iran with credible incentives not to develop a nuclear capability."
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The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!

Closing the Strait of Hormuz





About 20 percent of the world's oil exports—and more than a third of all oil shipped by sea—passes through this narrow chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Estimates for 2025 run as high as 60 percent.

Disrupting or closing this vital waterway would most likely put a stranglehold on the world economy, leading to skyrocketing gasoline prices
and a probable worldwide economic downturn if not outright recession. And Iran need not completely blockade the strait militarily—attacks on a few tankers with anti-ship missiles, submarines or small attack boats could accomplish the same end by making shipping oil prohibitively expensive due to sky-high insurance costs.



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Last Edited by Don Of N*******t on 01/29/2023 07:23 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
About 20 percent of the world's oil exports—and more than a third of all oil shipped by sea—passes through this narrow chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Estimates for 2025 run as high as 60 percent.

Disrupting or closing this vital waterway would most likely put a stranglehold on the world economy, leading to skyrocketing gasoline prices
and a probable worldwide economic downturn if not outright recession. And Iran need not completely blockade the strait militarily—attacks on a few tankers with anti-ship missiles, submarines or small attack boats could accomplish the same end by making shipping oil prohibitively expensive due to sky-high insurance costs.



[link to www.ucg.org (secure)]
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


That's the route they will go
The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
About 20 percent of the world's oil exports—and more than a third of all oil shipped by sea—passes through this narrow chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Estimates for 2025 run as high as 60 percent.

Disrupting or closing this vital waterway would most likely put a stranglehold on the world economy, leading to skyrocketing gasoline prices
and a probable worldwide economic downturn if not outright recession. And Iran need not completely blockade the strait militarily—attacks on a few tankers with anti-ship missiles, submarines or small attack boats could accomplish the same end by making shipping oil prohibitively expensive due to sky-high insurance costs.



[link to www.ucg.org (secure)]
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


That's the route they will go
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85162287


I believe that as well.

$8 dollar a gal gas may be a reality very soon.
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bigD111

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01/29/2023 07:32 PM

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Sonsabitches! Probably related was that big egg factory burning down, along with over 100 other food processors in North America. They create the shortages and we pay the price.
deplorably republican
JFN111
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Feb 5th Russian sea based oil embargo and a closing of the strait would make for interesting times.
The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Sonsabitches! Probably related was that big egg factory burning down, along with over 100 other food processors in North America. They create the shortages and we pay the price.
 Quoting: bigD111


hesright
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Shocker.

Not.
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Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2023 07:52 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
If we had a government that actually gave a shit about americans, we would be energy independent by now, we have pissed away our fortune in money laundering schemes for the elite and intelligence agencies

None of this shit should have any bearing on the USA
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2023 07:57 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
It's nice to know that in these trying times, our Bestest Friends in the whole wide world would never dream of stabbing us in the back.

Friends we can count on.

Friends to the end.

hf

With friends like these
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2023 08:00 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
And the real terrorists are?
The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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01/29/2023 08:17 PM

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
If we had a government that actually gave a shit about americans, we would be energy independent by now, we have pissed away our fortune in money laundering schemes for the elite and intelligence agencies

None of this shit should have any bearing on the USA
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84669412


Yes ^ those days are unfortunately long gone.
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01/29/2023 08:23 PM

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]


Overnight, the sky over Iran was lit up by at least two explosions targeting military production facilities: one in Isfahan and one in Tabriz. Whether the two explosions are connected remains unclear as the Isfahan target appears to have been an “ammunitions” factory and the explosion in Tabriz occurred at a motor oil factory. Some sources (here) suggest the list of targets hit might be larger and include the Headquarters of the IRGC and some other military targets.

The regime in Teheran is, somewhat predictably, down-playing the impact of the explosions, noting of the Isfahan attack that one drone was shot down "and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up. [The attack] caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."

At the start of the Asian open, oil markets might be primed to price higher risks to oil supplies out of concern that: (i) Ukraine war might be spilling over into Middle East, (ii) Iran might seek retaliation in the region, or (iii) general unrest in oil producing countries is bad news for supply.

As Iran seems to be downplaying the attacks and no clear culprit has been identified (despite Ukraine’s early response), any spike in oil prices could be driven initially by algorithmic trades immediately at the open and thus likely to fade as more information becomes available.

Will Oil Prices Spike as Markets Price Increased Destabilization?
Previous episodes of violence and explosions involving oil producing countries has led markets to price supply concerns. In somewhat comparable situations, such as Yemen’s missile strikes against Saudi Arabia for instance in March 2022, the oil price reaction function seemed driven in large part out of concern for escalation.


Will Iran close the Straits of Hormuz?


weaver
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


BTW, I was in H.S. when that Dennis Weaver movie came out, scarred the shit out of me back then - lol



Wow, I had no idea that was Spielberg's first movie

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01/29/2023 08:27 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
military production facilities supplying Russia with drones. This is WW3 after all..
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
if they could close the straits, i'm pretty sure that they
would already done so in the past. they hate at least
75 percent of the rest of the world.
hot pocket

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
More than likely Israel is getting to bomb them back into the stone age before Iran has nuclear weapons. Heck let's just take over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz while we're at it.
Don't take me too serious. Continuing to gain valuable knowledge here on many subjects.
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01/29/2023 08:58 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
About 20 percent of the world's oil exports—and more than a third of all oil shipped by sea—passes through this narrow chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Estimates for 2025 run as high as 60 percent.

Disrupting or closing this vital waterway would most likely put a stranglehold on the world economy, leading to skyrocketing gasoline prices
and a probable worldwide economic downturn if not outright recession. And Iran need not completely blockade the strait militarily—attacks on a few tankers with anti-ship missiles, submarines or small attack boats could accomplish the same end by making shipping oil prohibitively expensive due to sky-high insurance costs.



[link to www.ucg.org (secure)]
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


That's the route they will go
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85162287


I believe that as well.

$8 dollar a gal gas may be a reality very soon.
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


New to the planet?

If they close Hormuz it'll be $18 a gallon 8f we're lucky.

Shit, it's nearly $8 in CA currently.
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2023 09:14 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2023 09:17 PM
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Feb 5th Russian sea based oil embargo and a closing of the strait would make for interesting times.
 Quoting: JFN111


Sure would..

rofl5
Deplorable Zenobia

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
 Quoting: -Kate-


Am waiting on the cyber attacks that MFer Shwab warned about.

Truly a shame that the catering folks didn’t swap out those assholes shrimp scampi with some tainted tuna rolls.
And thought struggles against the results, trying to avoid those unpleasant results while keeping on with that way of thinking. That is what I call 'sustained incoherence.' ...David Bohm

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
 Quoting: -Kate-


Great point. I imagine Serbia will be next powderkeg!
deplorably republican
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
 Quoting: -Kate-


Gòod observation...you are correct.
The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
About 20 percent of the world's oil exports—and more than a third of all oil shipped by sea—passes through this narrow chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Estimates for 2025 run as high as 60 percent.

Disrupting or closing this vital waterway would most likely put a stranglehold on the world economy, leading to skyrocketing gasoline prices
and a probable worldwide economic downturn if not outright recession. And Iran need not completely blockade the strait militarily—attacks on a few tankers with anti-ship missiles, submarines or small attack boats could accomplish the same end by making shipping oil prohibitively expensive due to sky-high insurance costs.



[link to www.ucg.org (secure)]
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


That's the route they will go
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85162287


I believe that as well.

$8 dollar a gal gas may be a reality very soon.
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


New to the planet?

If they close Hormuz it'll be $18 a gallon 8f we're lucky.

Shit, it's nearly $8 in CA currently.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75269861


Well I was trying to be a little optimistic...lol
but you're right it would be a schockingly high number and probably not for long before it became no longer available.
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Putin Won
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Did Biden fill up America's STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES yet?

Asking for a friend...

lol
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
 Quoting: -Kate-


Am waiting on the cyber attacks that MFer Shwab warned about.

Truly a shame that the catering folks didn’t swap out those assholes shrimp scampi with some tainted tuna rolls.
 Quoting: Deplorable Zenobia


I still think the debacle with Southwest airlines and a couple other hacks recently that I can't remember have probably been dry runs for that evil bastard and his crew.

hiding
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The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Did Biden fill up America's STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES yet?

Asking for a friend...

lol
 Quoting: Putin Won 85170912


Holy shit didn't think of that. Good point...and no I don't think he did.
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The Don Of Nantucket  (OP)

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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Notice how everything is kicking up after the WEF meetings in DAVOS?!
 Quoting: -Kate-


bingo-NI
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Russia told Iran, if America/Israel attack the drone factories, Iran is to immediately close the Straight. It will send oil to $250/b. Russia and Iran win again. America loses bigly and Israel might be disappeared.
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
It's all here.
JFN111
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Re: Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil...HERE WE GO!
Russia told Iran, if America/Israel attack the drone factories, Iran is to immediately close the Straight. It will send oil to $250/b. Russia and Iran win again. America loses bigly and Israel might be disappeared.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85170912

You may be right. Russia would certainly benefit from the higher prices.





GLP