Hurricane Ian Info

not looking good

The TVA and Smoky Mtn dam system was designed for a 100 year flood, thought to be 20" of rain. A fast moving storm wouldn't be an issue with say 10", but a slow moving or stalled storm, held in place by high pressure systems, could easily dump more than the 20" design basis. That's just what happened in 1969 when Camille stalled over Nelson County, VA. Put is this way: birds were found drowned in trees. Total rainfall for the event is not known, but they know it was at least 38 inches, only because a farmer had set out empty barrels that he was going to fill the next day for watering his animals. The barrels were full and 38" tall.

When, not if, the 100 year 20" flood occurs, and any one of the high head mountain dams do fail, any other dams down stream would also be breached and fail. The problem with that is there are 7 TVA nuclear plants sited along the Tennessee River. Just remember that in the 1930's when the TVA system of dams was built, designed for a 100 year flood, they never even heard of nuclear power, much less envisioned 7 nukes sitting in the banks of the Tennessee.

Some may argue that the 20" hypothetical flood thought to be a 100 year event in the 1930's when designed, is now more like a 50 year flood due to climate change. Whether you believe in climate change or not, 20" is 20" regardless of how often it happens, and it would spell nuclear disaster for the southeastern US.

Can't happen? The Sequoyah Nuclear plant was built with an underwater dike to retain a limited cooling pool in the event the Chickamauga dam were ever to fail. So those designers deemed it probable enough to go to the trouble of constructing the dike.

Can't happen? really? talk to Fukushima operators and get their take on it. I don't know how high water would get if one or more upstream dams failed. But I wouldn't want to test it to find out.

There is a similar precarious situation in south Carolina at the Oconee nuclear plant, which is also potentially in Ian's path.

My take ? Overblown. As usual....(last twenty years of reporting).

Florida will be fine. We ain’t pussies here.

[link to weather.com (secure)]

Ian post of the day award. Lord have mercy.

The Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 (also known as the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane) was the most recent major hurricane to strike the Tampa Bay area

The hurricane gradually curved northeastward and weakened to a Category 3 before making landfall near Tarpon Springs, Florida, late on October 25,

10.25.1921 - 9.28.2022 = 36,863 days

36863 days / 31102 verses in the Bible = Remainder: 5761

Verse 5761| Deuteronomy 32:2

My doctrine shall drop as the rain, my speech shall distil as the dew, as the small rain upon the tender herb, and as the showers upon the grass:


Verse Finder 1 - 31102

[link to 31102bible.com (secure)]

A=1 - Z=26

Hurricane Ian = 121 = 4

_

1921 = 13 = 4

10.25 = 35 = 8

5761 = 19 | Deuteronomy 32:2 = 34 = 7

19+34 = 53 = 8

9.28.2022

9+28 = 37 + 6 = 43 = 7

Sorry didn't saw your thread ! I can't work and update properly two threads one after Ian and one about Noru! So I'm halting updates for now to focus on Noru typhoon! Thx for updates and stay safe!

Nice thread!

They ALWAYS EXAGGERATE the size of the Hurry-Cains

The TVA and Smoky Mtn dam system was designed for a 100 year flood, thought to be 20" of rain. A fast moving storm wouldn't be an issue with say 10", but a slow moving or stalled storm, held in place by high pressure systems, could easily dump more than the 20" design basis. That's just what happened in 1969 when Camille stalled over Nelson County, VA. Put is this way: birds were found drowned in trees. Total rainfall for the event is not known, but they know it was at least 38 inches, only because a farmer had set out empty barrels that he was going to fill the next day for watering his animals. The barrels were full and 38" tall.

When, not if, the 100 year 20" flood occurs, and any one of the high head mountain dams do fail, any other dams down stream would also be breached and fail. The problem with that is there are 7 TVA nuclear plants sited along the Tennessee River. Just remember that in the 1930's when the TVA system of dams was built, designed for a 100 year flood, they never even heard of nuclear power, much less envisioned 7 nukes sitting in the banks of the Tennessee.

Some may argue that the 20" hypothetical flood thought to be a 100 year event in the 1930's when designed, is now more like a 50 year flood due to climate change. Whether you believe in climate change or not, 20" is 20" regardless of how often it happens, and it would spell nuclear disaster for the southeastern US.

Can't happen? The Sequoyah Nuclear plant was built with an underwater dike to retain a limited cooling pool in the event the Chickamauga dam were ever to fail. So those designers deemed it probable enough to go to the trouble of constructing the dike.

Can't happen? really? talk to Fukushima operators and get their take on it. I don't know how high water would get if one or more upstream dams failed. But I wouldn't want to test it to find out.

There is a similar precarious situation in south Carolina at the Oconee nuclear plant, which is also potentially in Ian's path.