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GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30

 
Remedial_Rebel

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09/20/2022 01:26 PM

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GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Yes, it's to early to tell, but for those living on the gulf coast, it's good to keep watch.

A developing low pressure will come into the Caribbean in the next 48 hours with a 70% chance of a TS in the next 5 days.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

The Global Forecast Sytem - GFS is showing a strike on Tampa on 09/29 with sustained winds up to 92 mph, gusts up to 126 mph.

[link to www.ventusky.com (secure)]

Note:The ECMWF model is showing a more westerly track.




Gulf Water temps N of Cuba are peaking at 89.1 F which could cause rapid development.

(scroll down to 4:30pm)
[link to www.ndbc.noaa.gov (secure)]



Stay tuned, could be the 1st Atlantic hurricane to hit the US this year.



NOTE: GFS model changed since OP

Last Edited by Remedial_Rebel on 09/20/2022 02:07 PM
General Thade

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09/20/2022 01:33 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Yeah on tropical tidbits the forecast makes it look huge
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 01:35 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Yeah on tropical tidbits the forecast makes it look huge
 Quoting: General Thade


Gotta link?
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 01:45 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Yeah on tropical tidbits the forecast makes it look huge
 Quoting: General Thade


Cat 3

hiding
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 01:49 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Not Tampa, Mexico Beach, FL, Panama City, FL area.


[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 01:52 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
And it looks to be in the CAT4 range according to it's forecasted pressure.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 01:57 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Not Tampa, Mexico Beach, FL, Panama City, FL area.


[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82113004


Wow, GFS just changed the forecast to a more westerly track since I started the thread.

That's good for me since I'm just north of Tampa. Hope it stays that way.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 01:58 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
And it looks to be in the CAT4 range according to it's forecasted pressure.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82113004


Gulf temps are between 85-89F. So that's possible.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 01:58 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Cool. I’m gonna go down there and experience it.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 02:01 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Not Tampa, Mexico Beach, FL, Panama City, FL area.


[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82113004


Wow, GFS just changed the forecast to a more westerly track since I started the thread.

That's good for me since I'm just north of Tampa. Hope it stays that way.
 Quoting: Remedial_Rebel


If you're in Tampa you're going to get some sporty weather if this model holds up. Expect many landfalling water spouts in that area and all through the big bend.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 02:05 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Cool. I’m gonna go down there and experience it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77099499


I was in Vero Beach for Jeanne and Frances circa 2004. I don't recommend it. That was a pair of CAT4's that hit within 5 weeks of each other. The first one wasn't bad, but the second one stalled out on top of us. After the second one we were without power for a month. No cell service. Lot's of flooding. Massive damage. No stores open for weeks. They all have standby generators now but it was crazy for a short time.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 02:15 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
Cool. I’m gonna go down there and experience it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77099499


I was in Vero Beach for Jeanne and Frances circa 2004. I don't recommend it. That was a pair of CAT4's that hit within 5 weeks of each other. The first one wasn't bad, but the second one stalled out on top of us. After the second one we were without power for a month. No cell service. Lot's of flooding. Massive damage. No stores open for weeks. They all have standby generators now but it was crazy for a short time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82113004


Where I live got hit by Irma as a cat 2. No power for days. Huge trees uprooted, several houses lost garage doors. Most stores closed for 3-5 days.

A cat 4 would be devastating.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 02:18 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
kim crap
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2022 02:24 PM
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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
I always have to say its way to early to make this post.

In this case I would say its not.

Lots of models in the agreement of a bombing out storm in the Gulf. Coasts From Texas to Florida (entire state) should pay attention for now.

Similar path to WILMA in my opinion. Conditions should be good for rapid intensification.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 02:28 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
I always have to say its way to early to make this post.

In this case I would say its not.

Lots of models in the agreement of a bombing out storm in the Gulf. Coasts From Texas to Florida (entire state) should pay attention for now.

Similar path to WILMA in my opinion. Conditions should be good for rapid intensification.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77878554


It is early but those gulf temps is what bothers me. 85-89F

yikes
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 02:44 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
NHC has bumped chances from 70% to 80% chance of a TS since OP in the next 5 days.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 03:00 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
"Serious tropical threat could be brewing for Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico "

[link to www.accuweather.com (secure)]

Yeah, I know Accu ain't so accu but still has some good info.
Remedial_Rebel  (OP)

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09/20/2022 03:24 PM

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Re: GFS model showing a cat 3-4 hurricane coming into the Gulf of MX hitting FL panhandle 09/30
TWC

Caribbean Tropical Storm Likely To Form And Could Be Gulf Hurricane Threat Next Week

[link to weather.com (secure)]





GLP