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‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.

 
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 10:20 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing is directly related to interest rates. It is the one thing that people by that the interest rate can be a massive indicator on what they can purchase.

Shutting down new housing starts is bad for the economy. And that whole supply chain gets affected.
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

“They are hiking into the popping of a bubble,” Novogratz said, referencing the soaring price tags on luxury Swiss watches and other assets.

So far, the noted investor’s prediction has played out, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00% rising more than 300 points, or 1%, after briefly running its gain to 600 points, after the Fed meeting broke up and a news conference hosted by Chairman Jerome Powell got under way.

[link to www.marketwatch.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anon Braveheart


He said the economy was going to collapse during the height of the pandemic also...

So likely bullshit.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 10:31 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Miami shootout guy locked his thread.

'Just a shotgun' WILL SAVE YOU.

It's proven to be one of the meanest most formidable weapons ever developed in all simulations, plus real world situations.

We're talking about real warfare with full autos.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78765019


no its not, not even close

I could take your whole leg off at 300 yards with my AR-10

a shotgun wouldnt even hit me
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80750616


pffft my hi-point 9mm yeet cannon can blow your lung out of your body
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 10:31 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

“They are hiking into the popping of a bubble,” Novogratz said, referencing the soaring price tags on luxury Swiss watches and other assets.

So far, the noted investor’s prediction has played out, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00% rising more than 300 points, or 1%, after briefly running its gain to 600 points, after the Fed meeting broke up and a news conference hosted by Chairman Jerome Powell got under way.

[link to www.marketwatch.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anon Braveheart


Also Bill Holter and Petr Schiff are saying the same thing.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 10:56 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

“They are hiking into the popping of a bubble,” Novogratz said, referencing the soaring price tags on luxury Swiss watches and other assets.

So far, the noted investor’s prediction has played out, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00% rising more than 300 points, or 1%, after briefly running its gain to 600 points, after the Fed meeting broke up and a news conference hosted by Chairman Jerome Powell got under way.

[link to www.marketwatch.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anon Braveheart


Just another precious metal shill
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 11:01 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing prices may drop a little, but that will not make them more affordable.
Higher interest rates will result in higher payments.


They are working the problem from the wrong end.
They should be increasing supply and productivity.
Starting with oil.

They are trying to curb demand by raising interest rates.
This may reduce demand and therefore prices on some big ticket items like homes, cars, trucks, but it will make none of those things more affordable. The price may be lower, but the payment will be higher.

The cost of necessity goods and services that are already in short supply will probably increase if those businesses need to borrow money to operate. They will pass the added cost of interest into their goods and services, especially if demand remains higher than supply.

Forcing a decrease in demand for cars, trucks, and luxury goods and services will hurt some businesses, and may cause layoffs and/or business closures, which will cause further harm to the economy.

Increasing interest rates during times of supply shortages looks really stupid.

While our government appears to be incompetent, I am starting to think the opposite may be the case.
It looks more like they want to completely destroy America in order to rebuild it as something else.
 Quoting: FastEddyTortuga


You are exactly right!
This is a problem based on a lack of supply... of everything!
Raising interest rates would work if everyone was buying 5 cars per year(excess consumption) but the problem is a lack of products, lack of oil, lack of workers and lack of sense in DC!
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 11:31 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing prices may drop a little, but that will not make them more affordable.
Higher interest rates will result in higher payments.


They are working the problem from the wrong end.
They should be increasing supply and productivity.
Starting with oil.

They are trying to curb demand by raising interest rates.
This may reduce demand and therefore prices on some big ticket items like homes, cars, trucks, but it will make none of those things more affordable. The price may be lower, but the payment will be higher.

The cost of necessity goods and services that are already in short supply will probably increase if those businesses need to borrow money to operate. They will pass the added cost of interest into their goods and services, especially if demand remains higher than supply.

Forcing a decrease in demand for cars, trucks, and luxury goods and services will hurt some businesses, and may cause layoffs and/or business closures, which will cause further harm to the economy.

Increasing interest rates during times of supply shortages looks really stupid.

While our government appears to be incompetent, I am starting to think the opposite may be the case.
It looks more like they want to completely destroy America in order to rebuild it as something else.
 Quoting: FastEddyTortuga


Its the world in the same position. Its called the New World Order, One World Government. Elites and Slaves. Freedom is lost. Crislam comes from this too!
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 11:59 AM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Miami shootout guy locked his thread.

'Just a shotgun' WILL SAVE YOU.

It's proven to be one of the meanest most formidable weapons ever developed in all simulations, plus real world situations.

We're talking about real warfare with full autos.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78765019


no its not, not even close

I could take your whole leg off at 300 yards with my AR-10

a shotgun wouldnt even hit me
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80750616


pffft my hi-point 9mm yeet cannon can blow your lung out of your body
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47960194


hesright
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
06/16/2022 12:30 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing prices may drop a little, but that will not make them more affordable.
.....

They are trying to curb demand by raising interest rates.
This may reduce demand and therefore prices on some big ticket items like homes, cars, trucks, but it will make none of those things more affordable. The price may be lower, but the payment will be higher.

.....
 Quoting: FastEddyTortuga


Not everyone lives off of debt. But, yes, I get what you're implying. The economy will suffer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82934545


Well, you will too, after they hair cut your savings, pension, investments, etc. Then they raise inflation so you can't afford food, fuel, etc. Then they raise taxes on everything. And even if you can still afford shit after that, you better keep clear of everyone else. They will eat you alive, because the are hurting and see you as the enemy.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 12:34 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

“They are hiking into the popping of a bubble,” Novogratz said, referencing the soaring price tags on luxury Swiss watches and other assets.

So far, the noted investor’s prediction has played out, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00% rising more than 300 points, or 1%, after briefly running its gain to 600 points, after the Fed meeting broke up and a news conference hosted by Chairman Jerome Powell got under way.

 Quoting: Anon Braveheart


when these people talk about the 'economy' what they mean is the profits of their racial rule

they are claiming housing inventories are so high then why is rent and house prices going through the roof?

because your world is stupid an the same criminals have cheated you out of EVERYTHING because your dumb and stupid and weak and cowardly
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 12:36 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Miami shootout guy locked his thread.

'Just a shotgun' WILL SAVE YOU.

It's proven to be one of the meanest most formidable weapons ever developed in all simulations, plus real world situations.

We're talking about real warfare with full autos.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78765019


no its not, not even close

I could take your whole leg off at 300 yards with my AR-10

a shotgun wouldnt even hit me
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80750616


pffft my hi-point 9mm yeet cannon can blow your lung out of your body
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47960194


You know ar10s have bolt locking lug issues, right? The lugs crack and sheer off. 308 too powerful for the bolt. Better off with a Ar15 or AK and just a little skill.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 12:42 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
The fact that no professional military fields AR10s should tell you all you need to know. They don't field shotguns either, except for door breaches. M4s and AKs all day long.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 12:55 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Here he is predicting the bitcoin floor at $38,000

[link to markets.businessinsider.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 12:57 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing prices may drop a little, but that will not make them more affordable.
Higher interest rates will result in higher payments.
 Quoting: FastEddyTortuga


Yep, houses that keep their value will be newer homes on land I think... whats going up is labor and materials cost
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:33 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Miami shootout guy locked his thread.

'Just a shotgun' WILL SAVE YOU.

It's proven to be one of the meanest most formidable weapons ever developed in all simulations, plus real world situations.

We're talking about real warfare with full autos.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78765019


no its not, not even close

I could take your whole leg off at 300 yards with my AR-10

a shotgun wouldn't even hit me
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80750616


Many years ago I was a fox hunter. With hounds. I began hunting with a 12 gauge and buckshot. At 100 yards I was knocking off hairs and sometimes the fox would piss on the run so I knew I was hitting them. And I killed a couple of them on the run with a 22 bolt action - long rifle rounds.

So I sold my shotgun and bought a Remington model 600 with a Redfield scope. I got so I was hitting running fox out to 200 yards on a regular basis and two different time I took two in one day running at 200 yards.

And I figured out how to hit fox in brush at close up ranges also.

In Viet Nam some of the guys were carrying shotguns; draw your own conclusions.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:35 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
It already collapsed
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:44 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
We have been under a communistic monetary system since Roosevelt. The fifth plank of the communist manifesto says the government owns the credit of a nation and there shall be a centralized bank administering the credit system.

The dollar was backed by silver and redeemed by the banks with silver coin on demand.

The federal reserve note is a unit of credit of undefined redemption in anything.

The federal reserve is dealing in units of collectivized credit... They are profiting by dealing in stolen property.

And this system was initiated in the twenty years from 1913 to 1933.

CENTRALIZED MONEY AND CENTRALIZED POWER FORM A SYMBIOTIC PAIR; NEITHER CAN EXIST WITHOUT THE OTHER.

The great reset - NWO is all about setting up this system of economic peonage where "You will own nothing - etc."

(You will not own your own credit = identity theft.)
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:52 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Money is not a thing; money is a communication.

You can begin your re-education on page 75 of this thread:

Thread: Get rid of the money system, then get rid of goverrments (Page 75)
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:55 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
David Straight provides some clues:

Thread: David Straight VIDEO MUST Watch
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 01:59 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Realize that to solve this recurrent human problem the solution must be to decentralize money and credit. Take the monetary system out of the hands of bureaucrats and bankers and redesign money, credit, and commercial exchange.

To accomplish this worthy goal will not be easy or simple... only necessary.

The most basic form of money is the precious metal coin. I do not waste time discussing specie coinage as money.

The next basic form of money is the "pay to bearer" warehouse receipt. Using one of the many types of blockchain communications vectors anyone with something of value in a warehouse might create a "remit to bearer" title claim to the material in the warehouse. The demurrage principle applies to such certificate of ownership warehouse receipts.

A third form of money is the promise to create and deliver something of value at a time and place designated in the future. This is also a "remit to bearer" warehouse type receipt, but delivery is delayed and/or scheduled.

The proper role of the bank/banker is an agency role where the bank acts as a co-signor to either of the two forms of warehouse receipts - deliver immediately or deliver at a time in the future. The bank agency acts as a guarantor of specific performance of contract. This insurance of contract is very definitely a valuable service and deserves a portion of the contract, but at the same time should be a service open to competition. Avoid the idea that such a service should be provided by a single entity.

A forth token of value type of monetary system is the unit of human time such as pioneered by the Ithaca Hours system. A promise to remit intellectual and physical labor is registered with the bank agency and a number of time tokens are issued to the person making the promise.

A core principle to adhere to with such a system is to limit the total quantity of time-tokens to a narrow range of hours per person registered to the system. This ratio of time per person rendered into circulation as a currency needs to fixed to population demographics. And such demographics might be limited to the productive average life such as from the ages 18 to 70.

If the demurrage principle is used to tax circulating notes and accounts of record so as to provide an income to professional administration, then such a principle would cause a Gresham's law advantage to such a currency.

The demurrage Gesell suggested was one mil per week or 5.2% per year. After considerable examination and thought on this matter I reached a much higher carry-fee of one minute per hour per month which is over twelve percent per year.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:06 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Centralized money as the ultimate control system.

Number one - don't accept anything you now believe about money as as true and accurate. You have been lied to all of your life.

The common description of money begins with a description of how a gold coin functions. Then the recitation continues to "discover" that gold furnishes the perfect money system. That is circular reasoning illustrated.

Prepare for shocks as your core beliefs are shaken.

Money is a special branch of language where by means of value comparisons a third commodity, product, or service is evaluated and ownership exchanged in proxy. Truth is paramount. Gold held in deposit pending settlement of contracts is functioning as a performance bond.

Read everything Thomas Greco has written about decentralization of credit and credit clearing.

Discover the exact and complete meaning of this legal phrase:
"Specific performance is essential to this contract."

What we are currently using as money is collectivized credit with banks authorized to administer the system.
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06/16/2022 02:07 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Housing prices may drop a little, but that will not make them more affordable.
Higher interest rates will result in higher payments.


They are working the problem from the wrong end.
They should be increasing supply and productivity.
Starting with oil.

They are trying to curb demand by raising interest rates.
This may reduce demand and therefore prices on some big ticket items like homes, cars, trucks, but it will make none of those things more affordable. The price may be lower, but the payment will be higher.

The cost of necessity goods and services that are already in short supply will probably increase if those businesses need to borrow money to operate. They will pass the added cost of interest into their goods and services, especially if demand remains higher than supply.

Forcing a decrease in demand for cars, trucks, and luxury goods and services will hurt some businesses, and may cause layoffs and/or business closures, which will cause further harm to the economy.

Increasing interest rates during times of supply shortages looks really stupid.

While our government appears to be incompetent, I am starting to think the opposite may be the case.
It looks more like they want to completely destroy America in order to rebuild it as something else.
 Quoting: FastEddyTortuga


Wrong

Houses worth $200k will no longer be selling for an over inflated $300k.

Prices will likely stay the same or even go down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80788445


The problem is that the people who did buy at that price will walk away when it loses value and the fucking banks will want another bailout.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:08 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Here he is predicting the bitcoin floor at $38,000

[link to markets.businessinsider.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79998963


rofl5
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:11 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Time passes; fades away like memory. All physical things that people use and consume have storage costs and value loss due to insects, mold, rot, rodents etc.

Demurrage is an idea that originated with Silvio Gesell just about 100 years ago.

Demurrage fees can be assessed upon accounts of record and upon circulating currency and these fees can be used to pay for professional administration of a monetary system.

The underlying principle here is that we all benefit from a smoothly operating monetary system and that all money holders are beneficiaries of the system.

A money system is to the physical economy as a topographic map is to the geology.

If you threw a topo map of your neighborhood into a burning fire, would you look out the window expecting the fields and roads to burst into flame?

Money is like manure. Spread it out evenly upon the land and it grows things. Pile it up in one place and it stinks. George Soros is the epitome of manure piles. Demurrage prevents piles from accumulating.

Related links: [link to blog.naturalmoney.org] & [link to www.naturalmoney.org]
[link to userpage.fu-berlin.de]
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:17 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
If you buy into the idea that money is a communication, that does not equate into money will be free. Money-as-communication must still be accurate and true; in my vernacular, any act of telling lies with money symbols is a counterfeiting. Anti-counterfeiting (guarantee of specific performance of contract) will always cost; you need professional administrators.

These administrators must be in an agency relation to the people and should (IMO) be self bonded. Any malfeasance of office needs to be met with loss of job and loss of bond.

Professional administration can be paid for with demurrage. It is a simple principle; you want a smooth working monetary system, then everyone pays. The currency bearer or holder of an account of record is in a beneficiary position; let the beneficiary pay. Or, put the currency back in circulation by putting someone to work. The Worgl record shows that a currency with a demurrage charge circulates at least ten times more rapidly than “normal” national currency.

The social structure is made richer in general by people applying intellectual and physical labor to problems that need effort. Accounts that multiply might look good to the account holder but actually improve nothing.

”Civilization is a food driven make-work enterprise.” Hypertiger of Canada

How much demurrage? More than you might guess. Since I propose human time as the unit of exchange (the time value of yesterday is zero), I also propose one minute per hour per month demurrage charge.

This will seem quite outrageous to anyone who has looked at usury and who also believes precious metals are money...

However, you need to read the Ronald Coase theorem and examine what he wrote about transaction costs. What happens with a currency that bears a demurrage charge is the rate of exchange multiplies such that the cost of each exchange drops precipitously.

With a time-as-money system of exchange you must maintain so many units of exchange per participant in circulation. You must have pumps and pulls – I.E. - some formalized method of putting currency into circulation while using the demurrage to pull currency out of circulation.

Hypothecation of promissory notes is a recognized method of placing currency into circulation, and in addition I propose subsidies for food production enterprises thus validating the over-active tabby's statement.

Ronald Coase also recognized the need for formalized property rights in economics; this simply expressed position is the largest failure in socialized societies.
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06/16/2022 02:30 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Andreas Antonopoulos has dropped off in popularity, but this talk delivered in Sweden in 2017 contains much truth about money as a communication. Andreas Antonopoulos promotes BitCoin but what he says about the potential of cryptocurrency is important economic basic truths.

25 minute video:

Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:34 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Money has actually been a communication between people for a long time and largely existed as “scribblings” on contracts of various forms. The presumption that deposits of specie metals were the monetary reserves is a flawed idea. What I have been attempting to point out (and admittedly this is simply my opinion) is that the specie deposits were actually functioning in a performance bond role keeping all of the players honest.

The fear that the banker had of a “run on the bank” meant the banker had to try to keep his interest costs low and manageable to his customer base.

The customer feared that if he failed in keeping his promise to produce and deliver value in the future (the promissory note) that he might lose his deposit...

And that is why fractional deposits worked. The deposits were never all of the money, they were serving in a performance bond role.

Please allow me to explain the process by which I came to that conclusion. I was already looking at various LETS exchanges running all over the world in many countries and seeing exchange after exchange fail. And asking what are the causes.

The conclusions I came to were several; the organizations were making several errors.

They presumed that because they could print a piece of paper at very low cost then money should be nearly free. What happened as a result is the management was voluntary and after a year or two would quit without replacements.
They failed to engage a commercial law attorney to write some good contracts that would be enforceable in a court of law.

No provision was made for people to travel from one group to another.

There was no punishment for failure to fulfill obligations.

To solve the problem of paying for professional full time administration, I proposed a system of demurrage assessed against both circulating currency and on accounts of record.
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06/16/2022 02:38 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Premeditated starvation is murder in the first degree:
One minute video:

Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:39 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Wouldnt want to be a politician when it does
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2022 02:39 PM
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Re: ‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz.
Premeditated starvation is murder in the first degree:
One minute video:


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 62727939


Who is in charge of up





GLP