Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1) | |
Don Draper from Nantucket
User ID: 80692948 United States 03/13/2022 12:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Larphillips
User ID: 78895011 United States 03/13/2022 12:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78850360 Canada 03/13/2022 12:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 12:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Look at nickel. They'll close the markets and selectively enforce margin calls. They make the rules and change them at will. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78850360 Yeah, just ask the Hunt Brothers. They can stop an individual or organisation, but this time around they might not be able to stop the masses. There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 01:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2978070 Canada 03/13/2022 01:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 01:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 04:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82339969 Mexico 03/13/2022 04:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 05:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79580316 United Kingdom 03/13/2022 05:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Chinaman
User ID: 77082211 United States 03/13/2022 05:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 08:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76953217 Canada 03/13/2022 08:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I think they will. You will get 10 times value or whatever in cash. This of course will be worthless very quickly. Silver is a tricky one because money is silver and gold is a store of wealth. People mine gold but you don’t really mine silver that much. You mine other metals and silver is a by product. I think your best bet is focus on gold miners. They will also mine silver in the process and government won’t take your gold mining stock. The only issue is green initiative may halt mining and then you are screwed. |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 06:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | L There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79621947 Germany 03/13/2022 06:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Possum
(OP) User ID: 80931366 Australia 03/13/2022 09:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness. Dalai Lama Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. Albert Einstein The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there. Stigmata |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27815646 United States 03/13/2022 10:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27815646 United States 03/13/2022 10:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 81464570 United States 03/13/2022 10:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79760008 United States 03/13/2022 10:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 81512813 United States 03/13/2022 10:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82463913 03/13/2022 11:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82216747 United States 03/13/2022 11:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Agent 99
User ID: 77082640 United States 03/13/2022 11:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 80918964 Australia 03/13/2022 11:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's industrial, it's rare, it's special. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2978070 And it's currency. More rare than gold. Could be the real winner for the common man. I expect it to jump, then gradually rise spectacularly. It is not more rare than gold Yes it is. Gold stays around. Silver is used in EVERY electronic device that exists, plus electric vehicles, solar panels, medications, sattelites & spacecraft. All the gold ever mined is mostly still above ground & available. 75% of silver mined over the past 50 years is already in landfills. Its not more rare in nature but its more rare in terms of the refined amount physically available right now. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82181609 Netherlands 03/13/2022 11:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82186758 03/13/2022 11:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 82134034 United States 03/13/2022 11:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | My husband wrote this because he is trying to avoid mowing the lawn!!!! Quoting: Possum SEVEN-SQUEEZE SILVER First, you’ve heard of the term a “bagger”? A “1 bagger” is where an investor makes a 100% return on their money – happens in the odd stock every year. Then there’s short squeezes. A successful short squeeze is usually a multiple-bagger, e.g. the GMA squeeze which was a 100+ bagger. I see the silver market as potentially 7-squeezes-in-one, given sufficient time. Squeeze 1 – Industrial Demand (long term) I understand that the industrial usage of the ~1.0B oz silver supply has gone from 35% to 55% in the last 20 years, on its way to 85%. Reason being is its superior electrical and heat conductivity, critical in modern economy products like iPhones, solar panels and EV batteries. The 50c of silver in your iPhone is not going to change if it costs $10. Don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming. Squeeze 2 – Mining Supply (long term) We know that miners mine their best ore grades first and I hear the world is mining far lower av. grades now than decades ago. In fact, silver mines are now far less common and silver mined as a by-product of copper, gold, etc, is now the norm. Furthermore, the energy costs of production are making it increasingly expensive to produce – the value of the Ag in your hand goes up as that energy cost rises. But what if the price quadruples? I also hear that due to ever growing environmental and political minefields being laid every day, miners have been discouraged from even exploring for new mines let alone bringing them onstream. Again, don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming as well. Squeeze 3 – Russian Production (short term) Russia mines ~6% of the world’s silver (42.5 million oz’s in 2020) and have been banned from most world markets. At the margin, the actual effect of this might be closer to taking 20% out of available supply and has the capacity to catch markets out in a major way, particularly any short sellers. Basel III might have the same effect – we will see. Making this worse would be a smart, not unexpected reaction from one or more major silver miners. Here, mining companies that have been the victims of suppressed prices for decades seeing a silver shortage brewing might simply holding back supply to wait for better prices, thus exacerbating any short term squeeze. Squeeze 4 – Short Sellers (short term) Why is gold priced at 80x silver, against the 5,000-year average of ~12x? Why doesn’t an ounce buy you at least a week’s work from a skilled craftsman as it did for thousands of years? Price manipulation. Why? When the US, China, EU, UK, etc all print money nobody’s currency tanks. Shares and property rise and everyone still think they are investment geniuses, so long as the price of real money (Au/Ag) is suppressed. But how? Dump paper silver into the market whenever it picks up and reverse the contracts when the emergency is over. Apes have sussed out this game and the likes of BoA might just have been caught with an 800 million ounce short position. There could be little way out of this trap unless we let them. What’s a sensible target price – one that restores the 12x relativity and buys you a week’s skilled labour? I have never been good at timing, but short squeezes can happen very quickly. Squeeze 5 – Pretend Reserves (compounds a squeeze) Silver is presently the most shorted commodity of all. Accurate figures on this are illusive, but I have seen evidence that ~150 days of supply sold short, as well as estimates of 200 to 500 times the paper volume traded as physical. We also hear stories of major bullion houses lending out the bullion they’re meant to have in storage, leading to significant double counting of the actual size of stockpiles. These stories have led to people believing that if enough people lost confidence in these storage houses and sought to collect their bullion, much of it would not be available. Could a short squeeze test whether these storage numbers are accurate? Squeeze 6 – Investor Demand (short-medium term) Private buyers are already being felt in the silver market – just try buying anything for spot. Yet the professionals that are managing (I think Rick Rule said) $650Tr haven’t even started. Once these guys realise inflation is here to stay and that the ~40% of their portfolios (in debt securities) are losing money hand over fist (i.e. coupon rate less inflation rate), they should start lifting their pathetic ~0.5% in PMs into the longer term averages which have been multiples of that. Maybe a lot more if governments don’t start lifting the rates to get in front of the inflation rate (good luck with that!). Let’s take a 0.25% shift of that $650Tr into silver. That’s $1,625B, or ~70 years of global silver mining output. Wow! Could someone check my figures plz? Squeeze 7 – Currency Collapse (long term?) In history, 100% of fait currencies (not in present circulation) have failed. Silver and gold are real money and have always been an acceptable medium of exchange since those words were put together. Silver is produced from a high-mass star’s explosion, so it’s definitely not going to get printed! A return to real money is inevitable - it might take 10 months, 10 years - simply because 100% of the time a leader or government has been handed the keys to a money printer the temptation to overspend and start printing has become irresistible. That process was happening in the US even before the gold standard was dropped in 1971. So, we all go back to gold and silver backed currencies. I believe the US currency was silver backed till ~1880. I have heard gossip that China will release a gold backed crypto. Maybe that’s why China and Russia have been stockpiling gold? Will there be a rush for individual countries to produce PM backed cryptos? The downfall of the USD as the global reserve currency almost seems to be the Fed and other BIS bankers’ aim? Either way, the first signs of this should cause a rush to gold. Those fearing the inevitable threat of “gold confiscation” will likely prefer silver. I believe a currency collapse will bring on mean reversion. This is effectively going back to the very long-term asset price trend. Stocks and property form bubbles when they get too far ahead long-term growth trends and collapses bring them back into alignment. You can cheat true value for a short period, even for a long period like Aussie property, but GDP and population growth dynamics, inflation, normalised interest rates, etc, will reassert themselves eventually. I wish I knew what level of money supply each country and the world needs to covered by PMs and what their equilibrium prices would be. Has anyone thought about this, is it the right way think about it? Counter Forces High prices are often the solution to high prices. The price of bullion would automatically act as a counterbalance. If bullion presently totals $8-9Tr, a 100% rise in price automatically takes that to $16-18Tr. Bullion sales from private hands could go somewhere to alleviating investor under-investment, however, almost 50% of bullion is owned by global governments and they generally aren’t sellers, Turkey excepted. Moreover, the price of stocks and property (hard assets) look set to fall heavily in 2022, at least according to billionaires Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham, Elon Musk & Rick Rule. The above is based on the present “everything bubble” still being in place. If stocks are down 70%, silver won’t be the only attractive asset out there any longer, yet may still be the best until these squeeze dynamics are countered. Regards from Down Under (hope my views aren’t upside down). The world's largest producer of sodium cyanide for gold and silver mining has suspended production. It costs to much to make it. This will stop gold and silver mining cold Silver will destroy the fed and its going to 600 by eoy. Tell ur hubby this was awesome write up and to check out the us debt clock website they have dollar tosilver average at 2000 an oz |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79781137 United States 03/13/2022 11:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You are forgetting that as the price of oil skyrockets the cost to pull silver out of deeper and deeper holes in the ground goes up exponentially This becomes a feedback loop of epic proportions but until the banksters run out of fiat silver will be the last thing they let go Force majeur is possible however due to BRICS requiring proof of metals in order to get goods or in fact, precious metals in trade backed SDR's and other baskets of currency backed by gold and silver bullion |