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Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)

 
Possum
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03/13/2022 12:27 AM
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Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
My husband wrote this because he is trying to avoid mowing the lawn!!!!



SEVEN-SQUEEZE SILVER (+1)


First, you’ve heard of the term a “bagger”? A “1 bagger” is where an investor makes a 100% return on their money – happens in the odd stock every year. Then there’s short squeezes. A successful short squeeze is usually a multiple-bagger, e.g. the GMA squeeze which was a 100+ bagger. I see the silver market as potentially 7-squeezes-in-one, given sufficient time.

Squeeze 1 – Industrial Demand (long term)

I understand that the industrial usage of the ~1.0B oz silver supply has gone from 35% to 55% in the last 20 years, on its way to 85%. Reason being is its superior electrical and heat conductivity, critical in modern economy products like iPhones, solar panels and EV batteries. The 50c of silver in your iPhone is not going to change if it costs $10. Don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming.

Squeeze 2 – Mining Supply (long term)

We know that miners mine their best ore grades first and I hear the world is mining far lower av. grades now than decades ago. In fact, silver mines are now far less common and silver mined as a by-product of copper, gold, etc, is now the norm. Furthermore, the energy costs of production are making it increasingly expensive to produce – the value of the Ag in your hand goes up as that energy cost rises. But what if the price quadruples? I also hear that due to ever growing environmental and political minefields being laid every day, miners have been discouraged from even exploring for new mines let alone bringing them onstream. Again, don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming as well.

Squeeze 3 – Russian Production (short term)

Russia mines ~6% of the world’s silver (42.5 million oz’s in 2020) and have been banned from most world markets. At the margin, the actual effect of this might be closer to taking 20% out of available supply and has the capacity to catch markets out in a major way, particularly any short sellers. Basel III might have the same effect – we will see.

Making this worse would be a smart, not unexpected reaction from one or more major silver miners. Here, mining companies that have been the victims of suppressed prices for decades seeing a silver shortage brewing might simply holding back supply to wait for better prices, thus exacerbating any short term squeeze.

Squeeze 4 – Short Sellers (short term)

Why is gold priced at 80x silver, against the 5,000-year average of ~12x? Why doesn’t an ounce buy you at least a week’s work from a skilled craftsman as it did for thousands of years? Price manipulation. Why? When the US, China, EU, UK, etc all print money nobody’s currency tanks. Shares and property rise and everyone still think they are investment geniuses, so long as the price of real money (Au/Ag) is suppressed. But how? Dump paper silver into the market whenever it picks up and reverse the contracts when the emergency is over. Apes have sussed out this game and the likes of BoA might just have been caught with an 800 million ounce short position. There could be little way out of this trap unless we let them. What’s a sensible target price – one that restores the 12x relativity and buys you a week’s skilled labour? I have never been good at timing, but short squeezes can happen very quickly.

Squeeze 5 – Pretend Reserves (compounds a squeeze)

Silver is presently the most shorted commodity of all. Accurate figures on this are illusive, but I have seen evidence that ~150 days of supply sold short, as well as estimates of 200 to 500 times the paper volume traded as physical. We also hear stories of major bullion houses lending out the bullion they’re meant to have in storage, leading to significant double counting of the actual size of stockpiles. These stories have led to people believing that if enough people lost confidence in these storage houses and sought to collect their bullion, much of it would not be available. Could a short squeeze test whether these storage numbers are accurate?

Squeeze 6 – Investor Demand (short-medium term)

Private buyers are already being felt in the silver market – just try buying anything for spot. Yet the professionals that are managing (I think Rick Rule said) $650Tr haven’t even started. Once these guys realise inflation is here to stay and that the ~40% of their portfolios (in debt securities) are losing money hand over fist (i.e. coupon rate less inflation rate), they should start lifting their pathetic ~0.5% in PMs into the longer term averages which have been multiples of that. Maybe a lot more if governments don’t start lifting the rates to get in front of the inflation rate (good luck with that!). Let’s take a 0.25% shift of that $650Tr into silver. That’s $1,625B, or ~70 years of global silver mining output. Wow! Could someone check my figures plz?

Squeeze 7 – Currency Collapse (long term?)

In history, 100% of fait currencies (not in present circulation) have failed. Silver and gold are real money and have always been an acceptable medium of exchange since those words were put together. Silver is produced from a high-mass star’s explosion, so it’s definitely not going to get printed! A return to real money is inevitable - it might take 10 months, 10 years - simply because 100% of the time a leader or government has been handed the keys to a money printer the temptation to overspend and start printing has become irresistible. That process was happening in the US even before the gold standard was dropped in 1971. So, we all go back to gold and silver backed currencies. I believe the US currency was silver backed till ~1880. I have heard gossip that China will release a gold backed crypto. Maybe that’s why China and Russia have been stockpiling gold? Will there be a rush for individual countries to produce PM backed cryptos? The downfall of the USD as the global reserve currency almost seems to be the Fed and other BIS bankers’ aim? Either way, the first signs of this should cause a rush to gold. Those fearing the inevitable threat of “gold confiscation” will likely prefer silver.


I believe a currency collapse will bring on mean reversion. This is effectively going back to the very long-term asset price trend. Stocks and property form bubbles when they get too far ahead long-term growth trends and collapses bring them back into alignment. You can cheat true value for a short period, even for a long period like Aussie property, but GDP and population growth dynamics, inflation, normalised interest rates, etc, will reassert themselves eventually. I wish I knew what level of money supply each country and the world needs to covered by PMs and what their equilibrium prices would be. Has anyone thought about this, is it the right way think about it?

(Courtesy of a reply from Anonymous Coward in Greece, another squeeze might come from a rotation out of the US$3Tr crypto markets, if those guys seeking a digital way out of fiat find that they are still at the mercy of central banks/governments.)

Counter Forces

High prices are often the solution to high prices. The price of bullion would automatically act as a counterbalance. If bullion presently totals $8-9Tr, a 100% rise in price automatically takes that to $16-18Tr. Bullion sales from private hands could go somewhere to alleviating investor under-investment, however, almost 50% of bullion is owned by global governments and they generally aren’t sellers, Turkey excepted.


Moreover, the price of stocks and property (hard assets) look set to fall heavily in 2022, at least according to billionaires Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham, Elon Musk & Rick Rule. The above is based on the present “everything bubble” still being in place. If stocks are down 70%, silver won’t be the only attractive asset out there any longer, yet may still be the best until these squeeze dynamics are countered.


Regards from Down Under (hope my views aren’t upside down).


5a

Last Edited by Possum on 03/14/2022 04:30 AM
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Don Draper from Nantucket

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03/13/2022 12:36 AM

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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
clappa
PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ

UPGRADE UNAVAILABLE

The Rolling Stones said it best...

"What's confusing you is the nature of my game"
Larphillips

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03/13/2022 12:46 AM

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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
lovethispost
“A person is smart, people are stupid.”
“Nobody knows until everybody knows”
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 12:50 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Look at nickel. They'll close the markets and selectively enforce margin calls. They make the rules and change them at will.
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 12:53 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Look at nickel. They'll close the markets and selectively enforce margin calls. They make the rules and change them at will.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78850360


Yeah, just ask the Hunt Brothers. They can stop an individual or organisation, but this time around they might not be able to stop the masses.
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 01:06 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 01:22 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
It's industrial, it's rare, it's special.
And it's currency.
More rare than gold.
Could be the real winner for the common man.

I expect it to jump, then gradually rise spectacularly.
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 01:51 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 04:21 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 04:34 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Well-written piece. Silvertards will ride!
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 05:22 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 05:28 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
scream "WE RIDE!!!"

sealsealsealwhip
Chinaman

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03/13/2022 05:56 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Unless the government confiscates silver and make it illegal to own.
Chinaman
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/13/2022 08:03 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 08:15 AM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Unless the government confiscates silver and make it illegal to own.
 Quoting: Chinaman


I think they will. You will get 10 times value or whatever in cash. This of course will be worthless very quickly.

Silver is a tricky one because money is silver and gold is a store of wealth. People mine gold but you don’t really mine silver that much. You mine other metals and silver is a by product.

I think your best bet is focus on gold miners. They will also mine silver in the process and government won’t take your gold mining stock. The only issue is green initiative may halt mining and then you are screwed.
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 06:05 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
L5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 06:10 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
I'm long copper and lead.
Possum  (OP)

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03/13/2022 09:30 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
5a
There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophies. My brain and my heart are my temples; my philosophy is kindness.
Dalai Lama
Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either.
Albert Einstein
The kingdom of God is within you and all around you. It is not within buildings of wood or stone. Split a piece of wood and you will find me. Look beneath a stone and I am there.
Stigmata
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 10:01 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Basel 3 = squeeze^8
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 10:10 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Some mines hedge...

Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 10:25 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
It's industrial, it's rare, it's special.
And it's currency.
More rare than gold.
Could be the real winner for the common man.

I expect it to jump, then gradually rise spectacularly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2978070


It is not more rare than gold
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 10:33 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
scream "WE RIDE!!!"

sealsealsealwhip
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79580316


sealsealcatdance
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 10:43 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
#8 no more big finds and as they mine current reserves they’re getting harder and more expensive to replace.
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:21 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
I believe it's number one use is industrial, no industrial demand no reason for a ride in value.
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:26 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Trump card, unlimited nake contracts, all squeezes void.
Agent 99

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03/13/2022 11:32 PM

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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
Good thing that mowing can wait. hahah.

So silver should be $240 per oz?
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:36 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
It's industrial, it's rare, it's special.
And it's currency.
More rare than gold.
Could be the real winner for the common man.

I expect it to jump, then gradually rise spectacularly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2978070


It is not more rare than gold
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81464570


Yes it is.

Gold stays around.

Silver is used in EVERY electronic device that exists, plus electric vehicles, solar panels, medications, sattelites & spacecraft.

All the gold ever mined is mostly still above ground & available. 75% of silver mined over the past 50 years is already in landfills.

Its not more rare in nature but its more rare in terms of the refined amount physically available right now.
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:37 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
no
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:40 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
it should go silva.

it should make go nickel like walk in the park.
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:57 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
My husband wrote this because he is trying to avoid mowing the lawn!!!!



SEVEN-SQUEEZE SILVER


First, you’ve heard of the term a “bagger”? A “1 bagger” is where an investor makes a 100% return on their money – happens in the odd stock every year. Then there’s short squeezes. A successful short squeeze is usually a multiple-bagger, e.g. the GMA squeeze which was a 100+ bagger. I see the silver market as potentially 7-squeezes-in-one, given sufficient time.

Squeeze 1 – Industrial Demand (long term)

I understand that the industrial usage of the ~1.0B oz silver supply has gone from 35% to 55% in the last 20 years, on its way to 85%. Reason being is its superior electrical and heat conductivity, critical in modern economy products like iPhones, solar panels and EV batteries. The 50c of silver in your iPhone is not going to change if it costs $10. Don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming.

Squeeze 2 – Mining Supply (long term)

We know that miners mine their best ore grades first and I hear the world is mining far lower av. grades now than decades ago. In fact, silver mines are now far less common and silver mined as a by-product of copper, gold, etc, is now the norm. Furthermore, the energy costs of production are making it increasingly expensive to produce – the value of the Ag in your hand goes up as that energy cost rises. But what if the price quadruples? I also hear that due to ever growing environmental and political minefields being laid every day, miners have been discouraged from even exploring for new mines let alone bringing them onstream. Again, don’t hold your breath, but this squeeze is coming as well.

Squeeze 3 – Russian Production (short term)

Russia mines ~6% of the world’s silver (42.5 million oz’s in 2020) and have been banned from most world markets. At the margin, the actual effect of this might be closer to taking 20% out of available supply and has the capacity to catch markets out in a major way, particularly any short sellers. Basel III might have the same effect – we will see.

Making this worse would be a smart, not unexpected reaction from one or more major silver miners. Here, mining companies that have been the victims of suppressed prices for decades seeing a silver shortage brewing might simply holding back supply to wait for better prices, thus exacerbating any short term squeeze.

Squeeze 4 – Short Sellers (short term)

Why is gold priced at 80x silver, against the 5,000-year average of ~12x? Why doesn’t an ounce buy you at least a week’s work from a skilled craftsman as it did for thousands of years? Price manipulation. Why? When the US, China, EU, UK, etc all print money nobody’s currency tanks. Shares and property rise and everyone still think they are investment geniuses, so long as the price of real money (Au/Ag) is suppressed. But how? Dump paper silver into the market whenever it picks up and reverse the contracts when the emergency is over. Apes have sussed out this game and the likes of BoA might just have been caught with an 800 million ounce short position. There could be little way out of this trap unless we let them. What’s a sensible target price – one that restores the 12x relativity and buys you a week’s skilled labour? I have never been good at timing, but short squeezes can happen very quickly.

Squeeze 5 – Pretend Reserves (compounds a squeeze)

Silver is presently the most shorted commodity of all. Accurate figures on this are illusive, but I have seen evidence that ~150 days of supply sold short, as well as estimates of 200 to 500 times the paper volume traded as physical. We also hear stories of major bullion houses lending out the bullion they’re meant to have in storage, leading to significant double counting of the actual size of stockpiles. These stories have led to people believing that if enough people lost confidence in these storage houses and sought to collect their bullion, much of it would not be available. Could a short squeeze test whether these storage numbers are accurate?

Squeeze 6 – Investor Demand (short-medium term)

Private buyers are already being felt in the silver market – just try buying anything for spot. Yet the professionals that are managing (I think Rick Rule said) $650Tr haven’t even started. Once these guys realise inflation is here to stay and that the ~40% of their portfolios (in debt securities) are losing money hand over fist (i.e. coupon rate less inflation rate), they should start lifting their pathetic ~0.5% in PMs into the longer term averages which have been multiples of that. Maybe a lot more if governments don’t start lifting the rates to get in front of the inflation rate (good luck with that!). Let’s take a 0.25% shift of that $650Tr into silver. That’s $1,625B, or ~70 years of global silver mining output. Wow! Could someone check my figures plz?

Squeeze 7 – Currency Collapse (long term?)

In history, 100% of fait currencies (not in present circulation) have failed. Silver and gold are real money and have always been an acceptable medium of exchange since those words were put together. Silver is produced from a high-mass star’s explosion, so it’s definitely not going to get printed! A return to real money is inevitable - it might take 10 months, 10 years - simply because 100% of the time a leader or government has been handed the keys to a money printer the temptation to overspend and start printing has become irresistible. That process was happening in the US even before the gold standard was dropped in 1971. So, we all go back to gold and silver backed currencies. I believe the US currency was silver backed till ~1880. I have heard gossip that China will release a gold backed crypto. Maybe that’s why China and Russia have been stockpiling gold? Will there be a rush for individual countries to produce PM backed cryptos? The downfall of the USD as the global reserve currency almost seems to be the Fed and other BIS bankers’ aim? Either way, the first signs of this should cause a rush to gold. Those fearing the inevitable threat of “gold confiscation” will likely prefer silver.


I believe a currency collapse will bring on mean reversion. This is effectively going back to the very long-term asset price trend. Stocks and property form bubbles when they get too far ahead long-term growth trends and collapses bring them back into alignment. You can cheat true value for a short period, even for a long period like Aussie property, but GDP and population growth dynamics, inflation, normalised interest rates, etc, will reassert themselves eventually. I wish I knew what level of money supply each country and the world needs to covered by PMs and what their equilibrium prices would be. Has anyone thought about this, is it the right way think about it?


Counter Forces

High prices are often the solution to high prices. The price of bullion would automatically act as a counterbalance. If bullion presently totals $8-9Tr, a 100% rise in price automatically takes that to $16-18Tr. Bullion sales from private hands could go somewhere to alleviating investor under-investment, however, almost 50% of bullion is owned by global governments and they generally aren’t sellers, Turkey excepted.


Moreover, the price of stocks and property (hard assets) look set to fall heavily in 2022, at least according to billionaires Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham, Elon Musk & Rick Rule. The above is based on the present “everything bubble” still being in place. If stocks are down 70%, silver won’t be the only attractive asset out there any longer, yet may still be the best until these squeeze dynamics are countered.


Regards from Down Under (hope my views aren’t upside down).


5a
 Quoting: Possum


The world's largest producer of sodium cyanide for gold and silver mining has suspended production. It costs to much to make it. This will stop gold and silver mining cold
Silver will destroy the fed and its going to 600 by eoy.
Tell ur hubby this was awesome write up and to check out the us debt clock website they have dollar tosilver average at 2000 an oz
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2022 11:58 PM
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Re: Seven-Squeeze Silver (+1)
You are forgetting that as the price of oil skyrockets the cost to pull silver out of deeper and deeper holes in the ground goes up exponentially

This becomes a feedback loop of epic proportions but until the banksters run out of fiat silver will be the last thing they let go

Force majeur is possible however due to BRICS requiring proof of metals in order to get goods or in fact, precious metals in trade backed SDR's and other baskets of currency backed by gold and silver bullion





GLP