Tornado Chances Across the South USA Today, Including FL, 2/12/08 -

Hi all. Got a great discussion for you today. It was a tough one, but FL looks interesting, preferably Southwestern FL.

ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER
TORNADO DYNAMICS
FEBRUARY 12, 2008 - 3:00am PST

Individual discussions on each map have been developed for this test. I am going to let the formula show tornado watch boxes. Yesterday, I would have had them in Mexico where a supercell was indicated, probably dropping a tornado there. Also some rotation within a cell West of Houston was indicated. A warning was not issued, but it was close to producing I bet. Rotation was clearly evident on radar.
The first map has a black background. The rest have a lighter brown background. The lighter brown will become standard in all forecast maps from now on.

Today is a tough day. Tornado dynamics are scattered across the South, so the formula is having a very tough time putting watches out; however, decided to let it try. Read on...

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Afternoon 2/12/08 ( 7+ hour warning lead time )

TORNADO WATCH : During this time period, we will be seeing tornado dynamics in the Louisiana area. The storm motion will be to the Northeast and the watch box extends into Western Mississippi. The watch box is outlined.

[link to www.ontarioweatherservice.com]

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Late Afternoon - Evening - 2/12/08 ( 10+ hour warning lead time )

TORNADO WATCH : During this time period, we have a mixed up atmosphere where I will be watching two areas for tornado potential. One being the Northern most watch. This is in North-Northwestern Alabama, extending up to Tennessee. Confidence with the Northern watch is not all that high due to the cooler temperatures in the area, but temperatures over 60 may be enough to support severe thunderstorms, that of which could produce a tornado.
The second watch has a bit more confidence. This one is the Southern most watch and includes Southeastern Louisiana, going Northeastward through Southern Mississippi, and finally ending in extreme Southwestern Alabama. The storm motion will be to the North-Northeast in this area. This watch will be extended into the Evening and after sunset hours as the map below shows.
Also the Florida area. This area is in growing tornado dynamics all day, and all evening. This is a place to watch.

[link to www.ontarioweatherservice.com]

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Evening - After sunset 2/12/09 ( 12+ hour warning lead time )

TORNADO WATCH : The watch will be moved to included the Central Alabama area. A line of convection should be forming, severe, with a chance of tornadoes during this time-frame.
The Florida chances I talked about above actually grow. Curious as I am, I have done a watch for tornadoes for Extreme Southwestern Florida. An impulse coming up from the South may trigger severe thunderstorms in this area. Level 4 suggest tornado chances are on the high side. Confidence in these watches is moderate at this time, with Florida being the highest confidence. Odd as that sounds, Southwestern Florida could see a tornado today, radar or person indicated.

[link to www.ontarioweatherservice.com]

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