Beyond Ukraine and Taiwan: 2022-2032 timeline and ramifications

So Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan, and despite all the media hype and doomsayers, WWIII does not happen.

Sanctions are piled on Russia and China, ambassadors are recalled and the world kicks up a hissy fit. But missiles aren't raining down on Moscow and Beijing. After a while, the media shrugs and moves on to the next big story.

A year or so passes. There are some circles in the US government who are seething over this blatant demonstration by Moscow and Beijing that the American Century is over and that the center of power is gradually shifting East. With troubles in the Middle East involving their best friend Israel, America re-pivots its forces into the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is looking precarious and that, folks, is not something to put on the strategic backburner.

America again gets bogged down in a Middle Eastern war. Another year passes. There is still fear about Russia and China within Washington and London, but the real fear...the existential fear...is in the halls of power in Tokyo, Seoul and Berlin. After all, a few hundred kilometers away from their border are two aggressive superpowers who are asserting their regional dominance through brute force (and virtually unopposed).

Behind closed doors, the threat assessment is dire. "Ukraine and Taiwan just got thrown to the wolves. We cannot rely on the United States to save us. Not really." The Japanese government does the unthinkable and green lights a nuclear weapons program. So does South Korea. Meanwhile, Germany announces rearmament on a scale not seen since the 1930s, but stops short of going nuclear. All three nations separately announce that their defence budgets will be set to 25% of GDP "for the sake of national survival" and due to "the immediate threat of hostile forces".

By 2032, under a wartime economy, Japan and Germany have built the second and third largest navies in the world, surpassing the United States and Russia. The Japanese land army now numbers more than 2 million, while the Germans field 1.2 million troops. Meanwhile, In June 2032, Japan conducts an above-ground nuclear test to paint a vivid, nightmarish picture to Pyongyang and Beijing that when the next bomb is dropped, it will not be on Japan.

The events between 2022-2032, while not entirely unexpected by Moscow and Beijing, went far beyond their strategic assessment. They underestimated the importance that Japanese and German voters put on national survival over historical stigmas and sensitivities. This was a matter of life and death - the Germans and Japanese chose to survive instead of cling on to America's archaic post-WWIII rulebook.

For the first time in more than 40 years, Moscow and Beijing felt genuinely scared and vulnerable. The Germans and Japanese were now fiercely nationalistic, armed to the teeth, and they were smelling blood. They were not going to sacrifice 87 years of progress, patience and restraint just to be steamrolled by their WWII victims.

Following the US withdrawal from yet another Middle Eastern quagmire in mid 2032, Turkey picked up the pieces, expanding its territory to encompass northern Iraq, northern Syria and a slice of territory in north-west Iran. The 'Kurdish problem' would now be dealt with by Ankara, and they cared not what the US or NATO said about it, for Turkey too, was now a fully-fledged nuclear power and was in the process of commissioning its third aircraft carrier.

By New Year's Eve 2032, Russia and China were now facing down a resurgent Germany and Japan - both of whom were fielding weapons that seemed more like the stuff of science fiction than reality. Furthermore, now that Russia and China had achieved their short-term geopolitical objectives, they were not militarily posturing in the same way they were in 2021-22. Rather, they were watching incredulously as their WWII-era nightmares came back to life. However this time, Washington D.C and London were on Germany and Japan's side. At least, they would be until these countries returned to their expansionist designs seen in the 1930s.

America was tired. Russia and China fatigued and bewildered.

Germany and Japan were wide awake.