Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models | |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 08/31/2021 08:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models An area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late this week and this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)] TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/01/2021 09:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models Not expecting much until this does make it to the western GOM if it even makes there. Still not much model support as most are completely dissipating this over Central America. However if it does manage to make it to the western Gulf of Mexico conditions currently look great for fast development. Point is we're probably 3-4 days from any development but if we get development in western gulf we could have less than 72 hours before a hurricane impacts areas already impacted by Ida. An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system remains possible over the next couple of days if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the coast of Central America. Thereafter, the system will have another opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)] TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/01/2021 10:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/01/2021 02:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models Recon is schedule to fly into this tomorrow so I wouldn't be surprised if they up the chances of development later today. Also the TWO said gradual development is possible in western gulf but from the obs I'm looking at if similar conditions are in the western gulf when it makes it there I think rapid development is likely. Also will have the opportunity for even warmer waters than what Ida had. We now have Recon going out to look into Invest 91L tomorrow. Honestly from this ASCAT pass it is a super sharp wave axis. It looks better under the hood then I though. It will be interesting to see what they find tomorrow. [link to twitter.com (secure)] TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/01/2021 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models Models continue to hint at something in the Western Gulf with a chance to develop next week. Likely coming from #Invest91L.. Something to keep a eye on... [link to twitter.com (secure)] https://twitter.com/_/status/1433157437394235395 TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/01/2021 07:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/02/2021 01:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models GFS now showing this system taking its time and hitting Houston as a moderate tropical storm 9 days from now https://imgur.com/oDnlXDg TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/02/2021 01:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/02/2021 01:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/03/2021 12:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models EURO showing a small weak storm forming right off the coast of Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston Area) and slowly moving inland. https://imgur.com/CM5xSSJ More and more models are catching on and increasing odds of TS development. https://imgur.com/zk7Mlkd TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/03/2021 02:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models https://imgur.com/w7P9UNl Latest model tracks shows some consensus of models lingering & slowly moving right off the upper Texas coast. Not sure I've seen the very latest GFS yet but the last one I did see had 91L being picked up by the trough and moved quickly across Louisiana. A slow moving weak tropical storm off the coast of southeast Texas or Louisiana could cause a significant flooding event possibly in the areas already impacted by Ida. Some of the levees south west of New Orleans have had to be cut open to allow water drainage which could become a problem. This is increasingly becoming something to keep a close eye on and I'm afraid by Sunday we might be looking at tropical threat to the upper gulf coast by mid week. TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/03/2021 03:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models 12z #GFS ensembles show increased support for #invest91L. 06z had about 5 members showing #91L. The 12z run has around 15-20 showing up. Pretty big increase. If you live on the #gulf coast, you should monitor this system. Timing looks to be around mid-late next week. #tropics #wx [link to twitter.com (secure)] TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/04/2021 12:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models This is a complicated system with ensembles showing different possibilities of various scenarios for 91L to develop and cause a variety of impacts. Most notable is the weak steering currents expected to be in place the later part of the week creating a slow moving tropical storm causing a massive flood threat to the northern gulf coast. Most worrisome is the areas already impacted by Ida in Louisiana. https://imgur.com/KCaPjCq https://imgur.com/TP79Fja TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/04/2021 03:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models https://imgur.com/UreZlkz [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] TeknaBuzz |
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(OP) User ID: 47126876 United States 09/04/2021 11:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models Increasing odds that 91L will become Mindy in the next few days as its the next thing to development on global models. The more bullish of the forecasting models would signal this could be considered a depression late tomorrow and upgraded to Tropical storm as early as Monday. https://twitter.com/_/status/1434322127050711054 TeknaBuzz |