Look at UK and Israel for a leading indicator on Delta

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

Last time that new cases were at 43k/day deaths was Dec 23rd, 2020 and deaths were 505/day. Now deaths are around 30/day. It is diverging by a factor of 16.8.

You can also correlate on 'active infections' and it takes you back to Nov 5; and also shows a divergence of ~8 times.

Clearly this means that cases are on the rise but deaths are way down. Even more pronounced in Israel where vaccination rate is higher.

We can conclude that Delta virus is a risk to the unvaccinated. It is also a risk to the very small percentage of unvaccinated who will get serious outcome.

We can also conclude that Astrozenica seems to be less effective then Pfizer and Moderna in preventing mild illness and transmission. (based on UK vs Israel data)

In general wave 3 should NOT drive serous hospitalization and death like Wave 1, Wave 2a and Wave 2b. Wave 3s are always expected and should be smaller then wave 1 and wave 2. Note that in the 1918 pandemic San Francisco took the social distancing very serious.

They were the only ones to fare well in the first 2 waves but got hit harder in wave 3 because people thought it was over.

Last Edited by chrion777 on 07/14/2021 11:38 PM