Top Australian General's Leaked Classified Briefing Says War With China A "High Likelihood"

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The leaked content of a fiery anti-China speech and secretive briefing to elite military personnel by one of Australia's top generals has landed on the front pages of major newspapers from Sydney to Melbourne to London on Tuesday. The confidential address issued by Major-General Adam Findlay, who was then commander of Australia's special forces and currently advises the Australian Defense Force, had focused on a coming war with China which he said is a "high likelihood". Publication of the speech's full key controversial contents is now threatening to plunge China-Australia relations past breaking point.

The April 2020 briefing given to the country's most elite special forces units was obtained and first published by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, and quickly spread to the front page of London's The Times. The general's words were leaked by anonymous sources. He had detailed that China is now engaged in "grey zone" covert operations against Australian and Western allied interests and that Aussie defense forces must prepare for the "high likelihood" of this turning into direct war.

Major-General Findlay was heard in the leaked briefing saying:

"Who do you reckon the main (regional) threat is?" General Findlay asked his troops and officers before answering: "China."

He continued: "OK, so if China is a threat, how many special forces brigades in China? You should know there are 26,000 Chinese SOF (Special Operations Forces) personnel."

The revelation comes at a moment of hardened and tense relations with Beijing on trade, diplomatic, and even military fronts, despite China long being Australia's biggest single trading partner.

The Sydney Morning Herald summarized further of the leaked briefing's contents as follows:

They say General Findlay told his troops that, if the threat of conflict was realised, the ADF needed to rely not only on traditional air, land and sea capabilities but also on Australia’s ability to use cyber and space warfare.

He also highlighted the need for the ADF to reassert its presence and play "first grade" in south-east Asia and the south-west Pacific, describing how the military had uncovered information showing China was seeking to exploit "our [Australia’s] absence" in the region.

"We need to make sure we don’t lose momentum... get back in the region," General Findlay said, highlighting Australia’s close ties to Indonesia.