China has many advantages, but also has some glaring weaknesses.

They are dependent on imports and exports. A few mines in the shipping lanes could shut down that lifeline. Without imports, their people will run out of food.

Taiwan, the PI, etc. could even do that clandestinely with unmarked sea mines.

They would face enemies on all borders. The Chicoms have stolen sea resources from almost every neighbor.

For example, India could use their navy to interdict shipping in the Indian ocean bound for China. Ditto Viet Nam.

The Chicoms not only would have to face the US Navy but also the Japanese navy which is quite competent.

Finally, the Han Chinese have oppressed the minorities in their own countries. What if we air dropped arms to them?

China is over 3,000 years old, but has only been a unified country about 10% of that time.

Ref the war game, a bio attack that was blatant would draw a nuke response. Not general nuke war, but at least strikes on naval bases, air fields, etc.

IMHO, the CCP is belligerent, but cautious. YES, the could invade Taiwan, but they would like to keep the USA, Japan, et al, OUT of that conflict.