A question for your friend. You report that he said:
"2) No one, including him, thought the political turmoil would lead to war until the day it happened..."

Question: How did he know that it in fact, "happened"
surely there was no news broadcast to state "we are now at civil war" So, what was the first day like?

To add, here is an incredible video of a Yugoslavian woman explaining exactly what you reported, and more. Very good, highly recommend watching
[youtube] [link to www.youtube.com (secure)]