Ohio ...

Urban and Universities areas strongly for Biden, rural areas strongly for Trump. Key for Ohio, as well reported, will suburban women and City & Black turnout.

"IF" CITY urban turnout (NOT talking suburbs here) is low Trump has it. "IF" CITY urban turnout is high but he can eat into the Black Male Vote then he still has a chance. Personally I don't think Harris is going to drive the overall Black vote up, she just doesn't have a good vibe with the VOTING Black Community, here at least, except for Black Women who were going show up to vote anyway and were going to go strongly for Biden to begin with.

Last time around suburban women solidly went for Trump, this time around their support is a LOT softer - but they will NOT tell their husbands that.

Trump's support level with suburban women has dropped considerably, but that clearly doesn't mean that they will pull the lever for Biden. Polling data for suburban women is NOT going to be accurate so it is hard to get a read on how they will actually vote until election day actually occurs and the ballots are counted .... but do NOT expect his support to be as strong with that swing group as it was 4 years ago.

As for yard signs remember ... when it comes to Trump Signs the decision to put those up are made by the MALE, NOT the female in the family, so the fact that there is a Trump Sign in the yard does NOT mean that the entire household is going to vote for Trump, it only means that at least ONE person in the household is going to vote for Trump - the MALE head of the household.