OP, Thank you for starting this thread as many readers want to know the truth. IMHO actual turnout is #1 factor.

Mail-in ballots will be messy especially considering how many have moved due to Covid-19 and unemployment.

I don't trust polls either. How's the outreach to the Amish and Mennonites going? Surely they wouldn't approve of abortion well into the ninth month or some of the other Progressive views.

Most Biden supporters haven't heard his recent speeches and won't accept that he's in serious cognitive decline. Wonder how many would vote for Kamala Harris as POTUS and Biden as a figurehead VP.