I live in Ohio and have been here for fifteen years.

Now, Ohio is a lot like the entire country. The dense urban areas vote blue, while most of the counties vote red. These rarely change.

It really falls to about ten or twelve counties that flip-flop that makes all the difference to Ohio's swing status.

They only tend to change in one way - Democrat to Republican. Over the last 50 years, almost no county that is typically Red has gone Blue.

The city cores always stay blue (except Dayton), but the nearby suburbs (and Dayton) are the ones that change.

The battleground counties are those around Cleveland and Toledo.
And I see them all going for Trump.