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| 06:27 AM | ||
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| 06:27 AM | ||
Some Corona virus calculations. | |
Kingman-Art
 User ID: 77044752  United States03/02/2020 01:21 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : H1N1 - Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu H3N2 - Avian Influenza A Virus H5N1 - Avian Influenza A Virus H7N9 - Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus Coxsacie Type B3 virus - Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Cytomegalovirus - fever blisters and or jaw cancer. SARS Corona virus 48,441 divided by 89,254 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Global health care system overloaded. Assumption - A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0 plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show you the date of global infection. Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days. This number can go up or down depending upon efforts. Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] 7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832. Because the virus will build its own "fire break line" at some point in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only 26,877,916 dead. The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million. [link to www.history.com (secure)] Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection. How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane? The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when the ventliation system is started.  Houston, we have a problem. edit was to fix reversed numbers in post. Last Edited by Kingman-Art on 03/02/2020 06:25 PM |
| Way too awake, maybe not
User ID: 74788305 United States03/02/2020 03:22 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Wharf Rat
User ID: 77537178 United States03/02/2020 03:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| JJ Johns
J to the 3rd User ID: 78471388  Switzerland03/02/2020 03:24 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | thanks op. in some ways, i agree with your post. the main problem is the numbers we are being feed are not even close to true. some many people not being tested... and relying on numbers from china, etc. so, that makes the math that much more difficult. stay well  . . No clotshot, NEVER! . Mad as hell! . |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78259745 United States03/02/2020 03:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | IT IS HERE AND KNOCKING US OUT BY THE THOUSANDS!!!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72636767 EVERY STATE HAS HUNDREDS OF THOUSSANDS DYING AND TRUMP IS FUCKING HIDING IT!!!!! DOOM DOOM DOOM!!!!!!! B.S. I would have said the same thing... until I showed up to work today and saw an employee... now I'm not too sure |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76739579 United States03/02/2020 03:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your calculations are roughly 63 X the kill rate of seasonal flu at 6.3 in 100. BTW, I’m with you, get so tired of hearing CFR quoted in media as number of deaths over number of infected. It is number of deaths over number of deaths+recovered. Guess they think they can pull one over on everyone since most of the population has no idea how to do basic math. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78319822 United States03/02/2020 03:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78319822 United States03/02/2020 03:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Also, you can't say it has a 6% kill rate when it isn't killing 6% of people that get it. You can say that out of cases 100% resolved it has killed 6%, assuming those numbers are correct. If on the first day of flu season 1 person died and 1 person recovered while 500 people are still considered sick,you wouldn't say that this year's flu has a 50% kill rate. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75682040 United States03/02/2020 04:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Also, you can't say it has a 6% kill rate when it isn't killing 6% of people that get it. You can say that out of cases 100% resolved it has killed 6%, assuming those numbers are correct. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78319822 If on the first day of flu season 1 person died and 1 person recovered while 500 people are still considered sick,you wouldn't say that this year's flu has a 50% kill rate. This! |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78026040 United States03/02/2020 04:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| InfiniTea
User ID: 72510977 United States03/02/2020 04:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Someone can wake me up when it surpasses choking deaths which are five thousand a year or 14 per day. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78026040 Do you think it's not past 14/day? Do you honestly believe the CCP with their cases that effectively vanished into thin air? The rest of the world will fast catch up to that. It's happening as we speak. |
| Shaun Kaven
User ID: 71498518  Colombia03/02/2020 04:29 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's just impossible to get these statistics until after the pandemic has run its course. I know we all want to know the death rate, for example, but how can we know when half the population that is tested is never hospitalized? Some people catch the virus and ride it out at home, and they're never counted. Others catch the virus and die from heart complications; they're never tested and not counted either. How many people are walking around with the virus right now but are asymptomatic. Probably 10x or 100x more than the people that we know about. So it's a worthy cause but I'd say it is impossible. Like I told my ex-wife, I said: honey, I never drive faster than I can see. Besides that, it’s all in the reflexes… |
| Kingman-Art
(OP) User ID: 77044752 United States03/02/2020 04:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's just impossible to get these statistics until after the pandemic has run its course. I know we all want to know the death rate, for example, but how can we know when half the population that is tested is never hospitalized? Quoting: Shaun Kaven Some people catch the virus and ride it out at home, and they're never counted. Others catch the virus and die from heart complications; they're never tested and not counted either. How many people are walking around with the virus right now but are asymptomatic. Probably 10x or 100x more than the people that we know about. So it's a worthy cause but I'd say it is impossible. Your question of " how can we know when half the population that is tested is never hospitalized? " is a good question. The John Hopkins link shows 5 data sources,WHO,CDC,ECDC,NHC,DXY. If the input data to the data bases is incorrect then of course the calculations will be incorrect. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78017652 United States03/02/2020 04:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78145775 United States03/02/2020 04:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78145775 United States03/02/2020 05:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Cynical Realist
Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 71403146  United Kingdom03/02/2020 05:05 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 Quoting: Kingman-Art [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : H1N1 - Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu H3N2 - Avian Influenza A Virus H5N1 - Avian Influenza A Virus H7N9 - Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus Coxsacie Type B3 virus - Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Cytomegalovirus - fever blisters and or jaw cancer. SARS Corona virus 89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Global health care system overloaded. Assumption - A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0 plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show you the date of global infection. Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days. This number can go up or down depending upon efforts. Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] 7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832. Because the virus will build its own "fire break line" at some point in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only 26,877,916 dead. The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million. [link to www.history.com (secure)] Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection. How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane? The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when the ventliation system is started. Houston, we have a problem. Yet.... whos contrived figures are you using?? The elephant in the room is...... serious and critical cases when this thing goes `supernova`...and it will. the infra structure to cope isnt there and it WONT be ....period. It may well be something like spanish flu (sounds so innocuous) but on steroids. Yes Houston there is a problem.... Houston are you receiving....HOUSTON!! IF YOU HAVE A FEVER DO NOT LOWER IT WITH MEDS.... A FEVER IS AN IMMUNE SYSTEM RESPONSE TO A PATHOGEN (VIRUS, BACTERIA ETC..) IT MEANS YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM IS WORKING PROPERLY....DONT USE DRUGS TO LOWER YOUR TEMP. |
| Kingman-Art
(OP) User ID: 77044752 United States03/02/2020 05:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why does the total dead + total recovered = total showing symptoms? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78319822 There is a delay time from the time a person gets infected with a test revealing the infection, and the time when a person shows the ill effects strong enough to seek hospital treatment. People just do not say "I feel healthy so I am going to check into a hospital." They usually wait until they feel really really sick. So they can be walking around for a number of days, spreading the virus, and not even know it. The 89,254 will have to pass through the phase of having recovered or having died in order to get a more accurate answer. |
| Leroux
User ID: 15547768 United States03/02/2020 05:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 Quoting: Kingman-Art [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : H1N1 - Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu H3N2 - Avian Influenza A Virus H5N1 - Avian Influenza A Virus H7N9 - Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus Coxsacie Type B3 virus - Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Cytomegalovirus - fever blisters and or jaw cancer. SARS Corona virus 89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Global health care system overloaded. Assumption - A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0 plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show you the date of global infection. Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days. This number can go up or down depending upon efforts. Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] 7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832. Because the virus will build its own "fire break line" at some point in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only 26,877,916 dead. The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million. [link to www.history.com (secure)] Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection. How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane? The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when the ventliation system is started. Houston, we have a problem. Must be true ...Fucking Data! THESE RULES ARE STARTING TO ANNOY ME! Acts 24:15 15 And have hope toward God, which they themselves also allow, that there shall be a resurrection of the dead, both of the just and unjust. 1 John 2:22 Who is the liar? It is whoever denies that Jesus is the Christ. Such a person is the antichrist |
| Kingman-Art
(OP) User ID: 77044752 United States03/02/2020 05:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 Quoting: Kingman-Art [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : H1N1 - Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu H3N2 - Avian Influenza A Virus H5N1 - Avian Influenza A Virus H7N9 - Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus Coxsacie Type B3 virus - Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Cytomegalovirus - fever blisters and or jaw cancer. SARS Corona virus 89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Global health care system overloaded. Assumption - A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0 plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show you the date of global infection. Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days. This number can go up or down depending upon efforts. Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] 7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832. Because the virus will build its own "fire break line" at some point in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only 26,877,916 dead. The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million. [link to www.history.com (secure)] Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection. How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane? The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when the ventliation system is started. Houston, we have a problem. Yet.... whos contrived figures are you using?? The elephant in the room is...... serious and critical cases when this thing goes `supernova`...and it will. the infra structure to cope isnt there and it WONT be ....period. It may well be something like spanish flu (sounds so innocuous) but on steroids. Yes Houston there is a problem.... Houston are you receiving....HOUSTON!! There is a book called "Chaos Making a new science" that came out in 1987 that explains a discovery made by a physicst named Mitchell Feignbaum. [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] It turns out that the chaos information shows up in almost everything; next years ant population as a function of some driver like the number of sugar grains that the ants can eat; or of the way water drips from a source; or the decay patterns in a radioactive element; or how your heart beats; or the spectral pattern found in starlight; and even the pattern of the stock market. Feignbaum's discovery is here: [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] You can take his formula into a spreadsheet and plug the R0 value of the virus (current best value of 6.0+) into the formula for the "f" function and see the number of days it will take for the virus to cover the world; IF and it is a BIG IF, the virus does not generate it own "self limiting fire break" to slow it rate of spread, or even stop it completely. I sure hope that a vaccine can be produced in time. |
| InfiniTea
User ID: 72510977 United States03/02/2020 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Doctor Statistics According to WHO: [link to www.who.int (secure)] Hospital Bed Statistics via Worldbank (slow loading, but global): [link to data.worldbank.org (secure)] 40 countries listed on wikipedia: [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78128618 United States03/02/2020 05:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There are probably some number of people (could be very large, e.g, > than the 89K, maybe not) who were/are infected and will never become a data point - don't really get sick or too sick, etc. I.e., it's to be hope the numerator in your Kill Rate is much larger, making the real rate much lower. Of course, maybe there are a number of deaths out there, even > 3048, that have not been captured in the data for various reasons. |
| Prospektor
User ID: 63268238 United States03/02/2020 06:12 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| J0nx
User ID: 76969563  Canada03/02/2020 06:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Op your math is off. It’s 530,000,000 dead at 6.2%. Assuming everyone on earth catches it which won’t happen. There’s an extra zero in your math. Numbers look legit other than that. My assumption is always that communist countries like China who are built on manufacturing would never go to the lengths they have gone to unless the numbers here are at least what they are in reality. The trouble doesn’t really come until the country’s healthcare system becomes overloaded. |
| Kingman-Art
(OP) User ID: 77044752 United States03/02/2020 06:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Quoting: Prospektor Global health care system overloaded." Recheck your math here. Not sure what you are trying to say. But math say this ain't so. 89254 /48441 = 1.8425 then * 100 is more than what you wrote. Help us out here. You are correct. I said 89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. when I meant to say 48,441 divided by 89,254 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. The number says that either 54 per cent show no signs of illness, although they test positive, or the hospitals are at max bed capacity. Most of the number comes from China so maybe they are stacked up outside waiting to get into a hospital. At any rate in about 3 to 4 weeks a better picture of the problem should show up based upon the virus rate of spread. fixed typo Last Edited by Kingman-Art on 03/02/2020 06:33 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 42325232 United Kingdom03/02/2020 06:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 Quoting: Kingman-Art [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : H1N1 - Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu H3N2 - Avian Influenza A Virus H5N1 - Avian Influenza A Virus H7N9 - Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus Coxsacie Type B3 virus - Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Cytomegalovirus - fever blisters and or jaw cancer. SARS Corona virus 48,441 divided by 89,254 times 100 is 54.27 per cent. Global health care system overloaded. Assumption - A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0 plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show you the date of global infection. Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days. This number can go up or down depending upon efforts. Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] 7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832. Because the virus will build its own "fire break line" at some point in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only 26,877,916 dead. The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million. [link to www.history.com (secure)] Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection. How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane? The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when the ventliation system is started. Houston, we have a problem. edit was to fix reversed numbers in post. Bullshit. Trump said the virus is a nothnig burger. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 42325232 United Kingdom03/02/2020 06:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 42325232 United Kingdom03/02/2020 06:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78550306 United States03/02/2020 06:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | March 2,2020 Quoting: Kingman-Art [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)] Current infected 89,254 Total dead 3,048 Total recovered 45,393 Some calcs. 3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate. This kill rate is more than 12 times "standard" flu. Some standard flu types are : fify. |
| Copperhead
User ID: 74438446 United States03/02/2020 06:52 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78017652 United States03/02/2020 06:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
