WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I maybe rushing this update, but I believe that my assessment that Russia will fully withdraw from the entire Kharkov region is right, because the latest is that the entire Russian forces North of Kharkov City fully withdraw.


At this point, the chances for Russians to also leave the remaining Kharkov region positions they have, is virtually 100%.


Now, before I go into the meat of the update, I would like everyone who read it to understand that I am not attempting to give Russia an artificially good picture after the events in the last 4 days.

No, what I will do is to remind everyone that we're in the REAL WORLD, not a movie, that focusing on the TREES will make you not understand what is happening, that focusing on very recent events is always a mistake, and all this will lead to an image that is highly likely a distorted reality, and future events will surprise you, because of inability to see the FOREST because you focused on the TREES and on short term.



I would like to make a bullet point based update, to be easier to digest, but I can't, because most people automatically draw their conclusions based on the first, maybe the second bullet point, and decide that I was wrong or I was right, without going further.

I personally watch heavy pro-Ukrainian sources, even if it's hard to do, because the propaganda is bordering non-sense, while pro-Russian or independent sources are based on analysis, information that was at least double-confirmed, and the propaganda is based on exaggerating the TRUTHS, not the LIES.



When this Ukrainian offensive started, with Kherson, I didn't talked about, I was just saying that it will fail. And in Kherson it did failed.

IT ALSO FAILED IN KHARKOV.


I can see already people saying "OMG he lost it, how can he say that? Is he blind? Is he a moran? Did his brian went in a holiday?"

Nope, neither of the above. And let me explain why I see it as a FAIL.



A counter-offensive, to be worthy of success, must reach a determined set of goals, the territory gain is just ONE of the goals, and let me tell you, is the LEAST IMPORTANT, albeit it is important.

We are in 2022, but the conflict in Ukraine is basically a WW2 type conflict, with better and more powerful toys. Everything matters, from terrain, to weather, to supply lines, to proximity to reserves, to economy, etc. etc.



First thing that draw my attention was WHY Russia put up a fight in Kherson region, but NOT in Kharkov region?

Second one was how come the Ukrainian/NATO forces (and soon as might fully refrain from calling the opposite forces of Russia in Ukraine and Ukrainian, and will call it what they are : NATO forces) advanced so rapidly in Kharkov region?

Thirdly, is the Russian NEW brigades formed in early March (about 50-60,000 troops, trained for 6 months), which are were ready to be deployed a week ago. WHERE ARE THEY, and why not send a part of them to stop the NATO forces advance in Kharkov region?

Fourthly, as much as I tried to find ANY PROOF that Russian forces in Kharkov region were overrun, or destroyed, or any PROOF that it was a disorganized retreat...I HAVE NOT FOUND ANY. I have seen PLENTY of pics and selfies with NATO forces at city limits signs, with UKR flags, or on top of buildings, or villages/town centers...BUT ZERO proof that showed any resemblance of either fighting or routing of Russian forces.



And last, but not the least, the expect massive Russian offensive in Donbass didn't yet take place. This is the KEY of why I consider the NATO counter-offensive in Kharkov to be a failed one.



So, let me paint a picture that many don't see it, because of TREES vs FOREST paradigm.


Russian forces in Ukraine are stretched on a VERY LONG front line. Russia is still NOT AT WAR in Ukraine, and they have a limited force (compared to what they have overall) for such a long front line. The main objective of Russia in Ukraine is to SHAPE THE FRONT LINES, so they get the maximum advantage, short and LONG TERM, in order to have their STATED OBJECTIVES SUCCESSFULLY REACHED :

-Liberate DONBASS (Lugansk and Donetsk).

-DEMILITARIZE Ukraine.

-DENATZIFY Ukraine.


Their other objectives, secondary to the main 3, are necessary to SECURE the following :

-Create a LAND BRIDGE from Crimea to Donbass

-SECURE THE WATER SOURCES for Crimean excellent agrarian potential

-SECURE Crimea from being attacked with short and medium range weapons.

-Cut-off Ukraine from the Black Sea and SECURE the ENTIRE newly occupied territories.



This are the main objectives of Russia IN UKRAINE. But as I have told you, this is not about Ukraine, this is about Russia's war against the West, and whit each day that passes, I believe that it became clear for many more, what was clear for so few (me included) before the Russian invasion even started : this is a war between the West and Russia, and Ukraine is just the beginning of it.


In the last weeks, Russia came to several conclusions, and I am sure they did, because I have seen it weeks ago :

-NATO forces are preparing a large counter-offensive.

-Because of that counter-offensive, Russia HAD to change their plans.

-In order to change their plans, Russia must REDEPLOY their LIMITED FORCES. Not to do that, would require additional Russian forces to be BROUGHT IN Ukraine.

-Putin and Russia, which are preparing for WW3, have 2 options at hand : REDEPLOY or INCREASE their forces in Ukraine.

-The additional 50-60,000 that they have just recently started to deploy in Ukraine ARE NOT ENOUGH to secure the entire front line, to use them for a massive push in Donbass, and the secure the potential gains if the push in Donbass is successful.


-So, Russia chose to REDEPLOY their troops, bring in additional troops (the 3rd newly formed army core), to SECURE KHERSON REGION (which is the KEY to secure Crimea and half of the land bridge between Crimea and Donbass (the other half being Zaporoje region), and to add more punch to the imminent Donbass push.




The lack of proof with captured Russian heavy equipment and ammo storage (and that proof should have been ALL OVER THE MEDIA AND INTERNET) in the last 4 days of NATO rapid advance in Kharkov region, along with other reasons I pointed out above, points to one, SINGLE, LOGICAL OUTCOME :


RUSSIAN FORCES STARTED TO WITHDRAW FROM KAHRKOV REGION WEEKS AGO.



There is simply no other explanation why Russia managed to withdraw SO FAST, from such a LARGE AREA, unless they ALREADY MOVED OUT THEIR HEAVY EQUIPMENT AND AMMO, and all they had left was LIGHT, MOBILE, INFANTRY and VERY SMALL FORCES, compared to what we KNEW they have there (40,000-sih troops).


The first reason why I say that Russia withdraw their heavy equipment and ammo weeks ago from Kherson, is that they couldn't have done it in 3 days. No way. Too much to move in such a short time.


The second reason is that such a big withdrawal of hardware and ammo have to be done in SMALL STEPS, that the opponent would see, at first, as SMALL, TACTICAL moves, and by the time they realize what is happening, is too late : you already moved most of it out.



And NATO realized that, this is why the so-called counter-offensive in Kharkov region (9,000 spearhead, 6,000 reserves) was much smaller then Kherson (15,000 spearhead, 20,000 reserves) : it was a HASTENED, MOSTLY INFANTRY assembled force (took like 2 weeks only, ZERO artillery barrage before advance, NO TANKS - the tanks they have sent later were obliterated by Russian air force), to quickly grab TERRITORY and presented it as a victory).



We have ALL SEEN the Russian convoys heading towards Ukraine, with the signs of the newly formed 3rd army core...the question is :


WHERE DID THEY GO?


Because it is clear as day that they didn't went to Kharkov region, to stop the NATO forces attacks.


Most of those forces went to DONBASS, and a smaller contingent (maybe up to 15,000) went to Kherson.


Second question : WHERE DID ALL THE RUSSIAN FORCES IN KHARKOV REGION GO?



The answer is that Russian forces in and around Izyum were mostly redeployed to DONBASS and some to Oskil River defense, and the ones in the northern Kharkov were withdrawn to Russia.




Let's see what Russia GAINED and LOST, with this massive strategical redeployment from Kharkov region and deployment of the newly 3rd army core.

What Russia GAINED :


1.Russia managed to safely redeploy roughly 30,000 troops from Izuym area to Dombass, and roughly 10,000 from Kupiansk area to Oskil river defense, a NATURAL, STRAIGHT, EASY DEFENDABLE front line, as opposite to the FORMER, SINUOUS, FORESTED-SWAMPY front line, which required a lot more forces for defense.

2.In the same time, Russia deployed around 40,000 troops from the newly 3rd army core to Donbass, under the propagandistic image that they are going to defend Izium. The rest (10-15,000) were already deplyed to Kherson.

3.Also in the same time, Russia overextended Ukrainian supply lines, put a massive pressure on their forces to bring additional forces to secure the newly "conquered" territory.

4.Again, IN THE SAME TIME, they STOPPED the NATO advance, which would have stopped ANYWAY, due to fast move on a large area, with not enough forces to go beyond.



So, what we have NOW, as we speak, is an ADDITIONAL 70,000 Russian troops in DONBASS (main goal of Russia), that are ready to start the long awaited Russian push, and ADDITIONAL 10-15,000 Russian troops in Kherson (which will be used to defend, and soon after, to advance towards Nykolaev and Transnistria, cutting-off Odessa from Ukraine mainland), 400 Russia jets and 300 helicopters that are waiting for A MONTH now to be thrown into battle, an OVEREXTENDED Ukrainian force that CANNOT LEAVE KHARKOV REGION, because the MAINLAND RUSSIA is just over the fence, and Russia can, AT ANY TIME, go back in (like they did TWICE in the past).



In a nutshell, IF MY ANALYSIS IS CORRECT, we will see a MASSIVE Russian offensive in Donbass very, very soon (days), followed or simultaneously with an offensive towards Nykolaev, and possibly, a LIMITED, FAKE offensive in Northern Kharkov, to pin the NATO forces there.




Now, what is the DOWNSIDE of Russia's strategical move:


First and foremost, because this was a highly secret operation, and as it happened, it cause MASSIVE PANIC among Russians (MSM and social media), secondly, it gave the West a great PR campaign potential WHICH THEY COULDN'T FULLY EXPLOIT (the Queen died, and that was a downside for the Western MSM propaganda), and thirdly, it caused a SHARP decrease of trust in Russia, from the CIVILIANS in Kharkov, and by extent, every civilian in the Russian held territory in Ukraine.



What Russia MUST DO, and DO FAST, to decrease or ELIMINATE the downsides, especially regaining partially, at least, the TRUST of civilians in current held territories and potentially future ones?


The answer is simple : A KNOCK-OUT blow to NATO forces in Ukraine, in the form a massive and successful offensive in Donbass AND Kherson, sustained by heavy airstrikes and missile strikes.




IF MY ANALYSIS IS CORRECT, THIS MUST HAPPEN VERY SOON, otherwise Russia is going to find itself in a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


IF MY ANALYSIS IS CORRECT, Putin and his military decided to do this, hence, there is ZERO DANGER for a coup in Kremlin.


IF MY ANALYSIS IS CORRECT, and the Russian offensive is highly successful, Ukraine is TOAST, and NATO would have suffered a MAJOR DEFEAT, which will come on the heels of what they consider a MAJOR VICTORY (Kharkov "liberation").




Conclusion:


The events in the last weeks and days were carefully prepared by Russia, however, no matter how successful their were, the NEXT STEPS are far more important:

-Donbass offensive must be successful.

-Kherson offensive must be successful.


I am sure that NATO understands this.


The question is : did Russia managed to do all this, managed to deploy all they need for the offensive in Donbass and Kherson BEFORE NATO redeploys their forces in 3 regions (secure Kharkov region, reinforce Donbass defense and reinforce Kherson defense) ?



WE WILL SEE, and WE WILL SEE IT VERY SOON, because one of two things will happen :


Either I was correct, the Russian moves were planned, and the large Russian offense will start (possibly tonight, with artillery and air strikes across Donbass and Kherson front lines), ending in success, or I was wrong, and Russia moves were already countered, in which case we will STILL see a massive Russian offense, but with mixed results.



If I was correct, and Russian offense will be successful, NATO will DIRECTLY INTERVENE in the conflict.

If I was wrong, and Russian offense will have mixed success, Russia will find itself in a DANGEROUS POSITION, which will force them to ESCALATE, at which point NATO will have to intervene, otherwise Ukraine is lost.



The OUTCOME of the battle between Russia and the West will be decided MILITARILY, in WW3, and not a decades long economic war, with small, proxy, conflicts here and there.

Last Edited by Recollector on 09/11/2022 09:58 AM

Now it is confirmed : Russian forces FULLY WITHDRAW from the Kharkov region.


AS I EXPECTED.


Russian MoD also announced that they redeployed they forces from Kharkov to Donbass, in the last 3 days.


This is true, except the "last 3 days" part.


They redeployed their forces from Kharkov to Donbass started weeks ago.

I just happened to be reading this when the update was posted. It fits with what DR is saying about planning troop movements, they don't happen overnight. Although his conclusion is different - he thinks Russia is just planning to retake Kharkov.

[link to www.thegatewaypundit.com (secure)]

Understanding Planning, Orders and Troop Movements in Ukraine

In my update I have said that Russia might have a fake offensive in Kharkov, to PIN the NATO forces there, which are overextended, and force more NATO reserves into the area.



Now, do I see Russia going back to retake Kharkov, and move further?


Ok, this is POSSIBLE.



However, NOT WITH CURRENT Russian forces that are deployed for Ukraine theater.



If there will be a SERIOUS Russian offensive in Kharkov, and not a fake one, as I expect, it will be only if Russia mobilizes A LOT more forces, and this means redeploy active Russian troops from inside Russia, and replace them with reservists...which means PARTIAL or TOTAL MOBILIZATION of reservists in Russia.



It is also TOO EARLY, from my point of view, for Russia to go for THREE PRONG OFFENSIVE AS OF NOW (Donbass, Kherson and Kharkiv).


Russia mainland is right next to Kharkov. They can start an offensive, a REAL ONE, at any time.




So, I do not see a REAL offensive in Kharkov, unless Russia starts to mobilize reservists.



But I see a fake offensive, only to pin the NATO forces in Kharkov.

Last Edited by Recollector on 09/11/2022 10:18 AM

I should have said in the post above, I agree with your analysis DR. Thanks for the update.

No need to clarify.


I didn't answered to your reply, per se, but to the article, and why I disagree with it.


Cheers.

I have bolded the part of your comment which I want to address.


There are only 2 options : Russia fucked up, or they didn't.


Since in my update I already made the case for the part in which Russia DID NOT FUCKED UP, I will go on and see what will happen if Russia DID FUCKED UP.



Now, this is going to be split in TWO : Russia fucked up, at strategical level, choosing to leave Kharkiv to re-deploy in Donbass and Kherson, OR, Russia fucked it up because they didn't knew that MASSIVE NATO forces were part of the offensive, and by the time they did, they had a semi-organized retreat.



I am splitting this in two, because what will happen next, depends on the conditions that made Russia fucked it up.


If Russia made the mistake of re-deploying, even if it was planned and organized, we will see with what will happen next in Donbass and Kherson : either they start the offense, and fail or have limited success (and this will be akin to a defeat for Russia), either Russia will pull off from MORE areas, because there is a MASSIVE DEPLOYMENT OF NATO FORCES in Ukraine, as we speak.



There is a small possibility that in the last weeks and days, a significant amount of NATO forces were deployed in Ukraine, and if this is TRUE, this explains why Russia pulled off so fast from Kharkov, and redeploy East and South.


Also, if this is true, Russia is going to declare WAR against Ukraine, will start full reservist mobilization, and prepare to attack ANY ENTITY involved in the now OFFICIAL WAR, no matter where they are LOCATED.



The Special Military Operation goals and allocated resources (troops, military hardware, money, etc.) are ENOUGH. There is NO NEED for mobilization in Russia and no need for a war declaration, which will drastically change the conflict.


It gives Putin and leadership of Russia massive, LEGAL POWERS on pretty much everything, not to mention the HUGE potential of what 2 million Russian reserve troops, fully equipped, along 1 million active Russian Forces, mean for Ukraine.


There is ZERO NEED for such drastic measures...UNLESS Russia KNOWS that NATO went well past supporting Ukraine with weapons, ammo, and several thousands mercs, and it is now sending tens of thousands of NATO troops in UKR uniforms to kill Russians.




EITHER WAY, Russia MUST ESCALATE, whether they fucked it or not.



RUSSIA CANNOT LOSE IN UKRAINE, because this means Russia, as a country, IS DONE FOR. So, fucked up OR not, Russia MUST ESCALATE...especially IF massive NATO forces, and not just mercs, are involved.




My entire update was based on NATO NOT DOING SOMETHING REALLY STUPID.



If they DID what I think they did...Russia is going to DECLARE WAR AGAINST UKRAINE, and by extension, against ANYONE who is involved, directly or indirectly.


OR, Russia will simply send ANOTHER 200,000+ new troops from Russia to Ukraine, without declaring war, sweeping everything from Russia's borders to Dniepr River.

Last Edited by Recollector on 09/11/2022 01:38 PM

I want to add one more thing, additional to my update and to the reply to Brazilian AC :


WHAT IF THIS IS AN OFFENSIVE, USING UKRAINE TROOPS AND NATO FORCES UNDER UKR GUISE, TO ATTACK RUSSIA PROPER, TO FORCE A RESPONSE?



Is it too wild for me to think that this can happen? Is it too far for the UKR nationalists, drunk with victory...to go PAST Russian borders?




It is TOO FAR to go where the West and the globalists want to AVOID POPULAR UPRISING in Europe, due to what is coming this winter, and fully start WW3?



I mean, nobody will have the time to protest and burn down governmental buildings, when war is going to be present ALL OVER Europe?




Will see, but as I have said yesterday, I believe SHIT WILL HIT THE FAN very, very soon, because of what had happened in Ukraine in the last 4 days.

Last Edited by Recollector on 09/11/2022 01:47 PM

Only for tonight I will post several small updates, because I think it is happening...



Major blackouts in Ukraine Eastern Regions, as well as Belgorod region in Russia.



TOTAL BLACKOUT IN KHARKOV CITY. Infrastructure reportedly hit all across the city.

Last Edited by Recollector on 09/11/2022 01:55 PM

The U.K. is under intense mass psychosis after the Queens passing. Gas to Germany is cut off. Truss the warmonger is in power along with Wallace. Anything can happen !!!!

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 09/11/2022 02:53 PM

A small heads up for anyone who believes that Russian attacks against Ukraine infrastructure is a "revenge" move because of Kharkov.


IT IS NOT.


Russia doesn't react impulsively.


The loss of Moskva was much worse then the organized retreat from Kharkov...and Russia didn't do anything out of the usual.

The loss of 10+ jets in Crimea attacks (be it sabotage or whatever) also didn't see Russia react out of the ordinary.

The deployment of HIMARS and their use was also not answered out of the ordinary.


Etc. Etc.




What is happening NOW, is Russia going to war.



The ONLY REASON Russia didn't bombed Ukraine's infrastructure was because Putin wanted a LIMITED military operation...NOT WAR.



Now, it is war against Ukraine.



And it will escalate very fast to WW3.




I do not exclude Putin appearing on TV in the next hours, announcing things that nobody here wants to hear.

Thanks for the effort on the updates OP. Interesting

Regarding your main update, you did made some very interesting observations which make the case for a possible planned move by Russia, instead of an Epic fuckup. I would only reiterate what you already mentioned in the update post itself: The only way to know for sure is to wait for the end-result of this supposed planned thing.

I'm not so sure it was something that was totally planned in advance. Maybe partially planned, but the thing is, and this ties with your previous comment about the SMO and this post I'm quoting now: US/NATO involvement.

Remember that US and its allies have a constellation of spy satellites, more numerous and in some ways more advanced than what the Russian's have at their disposal. It's very difficult for the Russian side to plan and execute any big move in secrecy because NATO (US and allies) share that information in real-time with the Ukies.

So at best, Russia can make some limited tactical moves in secrecy or if they go for big moves, NATO/Ukies can move to interfere/foil such moves. Maybe that's what happened in Kharkov: Russia was indeed executing some big planned move, when NATO interfered. This kharkov "counteroffensive" doesn't make much sense from a strategic point of view (because Russia can come back and kill them all soon thereafter) so it probably has another objective beyond pure PR by ukraine.

About the SMO and how this ties with the bolded part of your post quoted above.

See, if all Russia's problem in the universe was Ukraine, than the SMO as it is, would be the most brilliant, rational tool to deal with the problem. There are many articles by US military experts praising all the merits of this methodology and there's not much I can say, except to agree.

Thing is, Russia's problem is NOT Ukraine, it goes far beyond that. In fact, wasn't for US meddling there since the 90s, things would never become so serious for Russia as it became now, requiring such intervention etc.

As such, the SMO doesn't solve the ROOT cause of the problem; Doesn't cut off the puppeteer's hand always meddling and stirring shit for Russia.

Russia mistake was thinking that the US would ALLOW this conflict to KEEP limited, when they said from the beginning that they want to bleed Russia dry in a endless quagmire.

A SMO to deal with Ukraine, as a CLOSED conflict, would've worked just fine. But as a OPEN-ended conflict, where on one hand you have plenty of cannon folder to be used in KAMIKAZE attacks, and on the other, NATO supplying not only weapons but intelligence, training and even additional manpower disguised as common mercenaries.... not quite so, unless we severely underestimate NATO capabilities and the Ukie's resolve - suicidal as it may be - but remember WWII, when Japan went full-kamikaze mode? The US as Russia now, wasn't willing to go to WAR officially. Yeah. Ukraine is going full-kamikaze mode right now, with NATO support to boot.

Russia WILL have to escalate no matter what. They did it to themselves for being always too complacent and tolerant toward US provocations.

Had Russia decapitated Kiev's regime from the start, with massive bombings and targeted drone kills (a la Qasem Soleimani) maybe things would not have spiralled as much as they are now.

This tolerance emboldened the US and its allies to raise the stakes and make ever bigger interferences in the conflict.

It may be reached the point now where the SMO can't stay a SMO anymore, because of all that interference.

Russia probably is realizing this right now if not already, and things are poised to change very soon indeed.

As for an invasion in Russia proper, I don't think that is necessary for NATO to force Russia to SNAP. They only need to bog-down the SMO to the point where Russia will have to escalate, and this may in fact happening as we speak.

This month is shaping up to be very decisive it seems.

Reading just now about the attack on ukie infrastructure....

finally, a potential change of tactics.

This may imply many things....

is this to placate the internal pressure inside Russia? Because there was already quite some noise and discontent with the SMO approach, even before the kharkov retreat.

or is this the preparation of something much bigger?

lets see how far and deep this will go.

But Putin being Putin..... this may be just a token move to contain pressure until they figure out the next moves.

IF this is really part of a bigger and coherent plan, then it won't stop just at some random power-stations.

The fact the they didn't hit any KIEV infrastructure yet.....

until KIEV itself is hit and hit hard...

wait and see

PS: This attack may be related with the shutdown of Zaporizhzhya NPP.

The ukies forced this shutdown by relentlessly shelling the plant....

Valid thinking indeed as I believe Putin is a real conservative in our world as he could have bombed the shit outa Kieve. He chose not to tho for some reason.

For some reason in this debacle Putin has decided to not bomb the shit in that world whence American mil doc decide to just bomb from above as peon are just peon.

Fo shame on you America/our western world democratic as only Western world is allowed to murder from on high as silly old native of our world parish shake scythe at cannon.

Read it 3 times - what naught word?

They were removed.

Funny...It seems that what I have said in the above comment might actually happen.



What we see now, is that Ukraine and the West, emboldened by the PR victory in Kharkov, are only open for talks with Russia ONLY AFTER Russia is demilitarized and will fully withdraw from Ukraine.


Already, all pro-Ukraine channels are starting to talk about the "need" for Ukraine to hit Russian positions INSIDE Russia, to stop the attacks on the power grid.



Some even say that Ukraine "must" ENTER Russia PROPER, to "secure" a buffer zone...




We all know that this isn't just chest thumping. The globalists see that Russia STILL didn't went to full war, and they are pushing it.



Russia knows that, and gives them "opportunities" to do it, like the "victory" in Kharkov region.



I am telling you, one way or another, planned or not, the SMO in Ukraine is quickly becoming WAR, and soon after it becomes WAR, will become WW3.



The idiots WILL DO IT. They will hit Russia with HIMARS, and Russia CAN'T WAIT for this to happen.



Their own people will ASK TO GO TO WAR.

The west is pushing for war because they know they cannot survive the winter (at least in Europe)

They have two months or maybe less to defeat Russia. Without energy western people will be angry and no more controllable. Total economic collapse in Europe. Some other week and Germany will have to open the nord stream 2 and the war will be over

Thank you for your updates.

So...

The attacks on power stations by Russia from what I read elsewhere had the objective to stop the trains that the Ukies were still using to bring reinforcements to donbass. Seems like another ukie counteroffensive in ugledar or something like that.

This have the appearance of the Ruskies reacting to another NATO+Ukie concocted shit this time in donbass. If so... well, it shows how disruptive to Russia's plan this NATO meddling can be. Until the point the SMO will have to morph into actual war. It's progressing in that direction, but since Putin is really stuck with his incremental approaches I suspect we will see more of that for a while.

So no indication of a true change of tactics, no shock'n awe or anything like that. Still too soon to say indeed, but so far...

Gas shortages could push this surely DR ?

Gas and power shortages in Europe will push toward rationalization.


This will instantly kill the industry, for a VERY SIMPLE REASON : the population consumes a fraction of what industry consumes. If we add hospitals, water plants, public lightning, the population (depending on the country) barely consumes 10% of the energy.


In other words, you can cut-off the population's access to energy COMPLETELY, you will still have to rationalize power to the rest, which is called THE ECONOMY.



Europe is fucked. Period.



The economic collapse will NOT LEAD to reopening of Nordstream 1 or 2, or both.


It will lead to TWO OUTCOMES : either full blown revolutions, new governments, that will ATTEMPT to mend relations with Russia, OR current government will attempt to mend relations with Russia.



The evil empire (U.S.) will NOT ACCEPT Europe to give Russia TOTAL VICTORY, which is it going to be one, because Russia will ask, in return to reopening the gas, coal, power, etc. lines to Europe, Europe's TOTAL RETREAT from Ukraine, stop ALL AIDS to Ukraine, LIFT ALL sanctions, which will also mean the END of Ukraine.



So, total victory for Russia. The U.S. will not going to accept this, because this also means the END of the U.S., with Ukraine under Russia and Europe fully dependent on Russia, and EVERYONE ON THE PLANET will align to BRICS.





No, the only way out is a CLEAR WINNER, and this will only happen after WORLD WAR 3.

Indeed. The self-inflicted, by Sanctions, economic collapse in the EU will not change the course of their irrational policies.

Like I said before, the west as a whole embarked on a very irrational path at dealing with Russia. It will only get worse and more likely they will keep doubling down.

This, coupled with Russia apparent blindness to this reality, will lead straight to kinetic WW3.

No cold war 2.0 bullshit or "The US empire, the dollar, etc. will fade into irrelevance". NOPE.

Right now I agree 1000% with the view of Paul Craig Roberts expressed in this article:

[link to www.paulcraigroberts.org (secure)]

As I keep saying, the Jury is still open whether Putin strategy is the best one to deal with the west's declaration of war against Russia. Right now I'm convinced it is not, and this will guarantee WW3 sooner then it would otherwise happen.

question for u DR. will the rest of the world cut off its arm to save itself? cut off the US and our leader's BS to save themself?

we'd implode due to not making anything. and ouor stock market is heavily invested in by EU ppl and countries.

It would seem that Europe is headed to chaos either way. With power and electricity, and heating problems going just to be a domestic societal problem that is bad enough. However, if you add a war footing to that Europe is not going to make it.

The United States will have to intervene openly.

And the U.S. will intervene.

The issue is that the U.S. cannot afford to decisively intervene in Europe, conventionally, in order to defeat Russia.



It will be a symbolic intervention.



I am not going to portrait myself in knowing much about the U.S. military doctrine, however, without general mobilization, the U.S. presence in an European war will be symbolic, under 100,000k troops, and by default, a fraction of jets, helis, tanks, etc.



The U.S. active military forces are at around 1.3 million, of which a big number is deployed already all across the world, and will stay there.


A SIGNIFICANT number of what is left will have to be for the defense of the U.S., because, well, it what would any normal headed country will do.


Whatever is left, will also not be deployed to Europe, because of China-Taiwan and Pacific situation in general (NK-SK, Phillipines, etc.), which can flare up at any time, ESPECIALLY if the U.S. deploys TOO MANY forces in Europe.


Then there is Iran.



So, without mobilization, the U.S. won't be able to "save" Europe again.



But is the U.S. ready for mobilization?



Answer is : NO, they are NOT. And won't be for many years, and that is if they start NOW producing tanks, planes, artillery, ammo, etc. etc., to sustain a partial mobilization.


Europe is even WORSE then that.



The U.S. CANNOT have a war on two fronts, no matter how much they claim that they are, if those to fronts are against Russia and China.


Add Iran.


Add NK.



The U.S. is going to LOSE WW3, because it will all flare up in the same time (Russia vs Europe, China vs U.S., Iran vs Israel, NK vs SK.) and the U.S. will HAVE TO CHOOSE where is going to FULLY commit.



And the way I see it...they will do it in the Pacific (Taiwan, Japan, SK).



Europe, Israel will have to make do with what they have...and Europe doesn't have much...