WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

If we manage to look at this without being blinded by propaganda, which, to my shame, I was blinded by, we can discern a number of reasons that stood behind the bombing.


First, and foremost, Dugin was never inside Putin's inner circle, or his extended circle. Dugin never met, not spoke with Putin. If Dugin is who the Western propaganda say it is (and again, to my shame, I believed it), he and his daughter would have had a PERMANENT FSB protection, likely several agents.


Clearly, that wasn't the case, because such protection would be permanent, and it would be impossible to wire a bomb to the car without FBS knowing about it.


Now, we can go the way that FSB knew about it, and it was part of the equation, but that is just an assumption, because Dugin never had any sort of protection, simply because he was IRRELEVANT to Kremlin.



The fact that Putin, in the last years, adopted SOME of the lines of Dugin philosophy / propaganda / ideas doesn't make Putin and Dugin friends, or makes Dugin the brain behind Putin.


Dugin is an extremist. His views are way "there", and because of those views, that he promoted even before 2014, he was silenced, slowly, from appearances on Russian media.



Now, his daughter had the same basic views as her father, but much more moderate, being on the realm of "acceptable", and she had much more appeal among Russians. And that made her more dangerous then her father.


At this point in time, I believe that SHE was the primary target, or AT LEAST, both her, and her father, were the targets.



The assassination was clearly an attempt to ratchet up the heat, and it didn't mattered WHICH one of them would be killed (both would have been the logical assumption behind the attempt), the result is clear : this is AN ESCALATION, and probably it have much greater impact on Russians if the father would have been killed.



I believe that "best" result was both being killed, closely followed by then her being killed, then her father being killed.




A very important NOTE : We do not KNOW who was behind the assassination. Like I said before, on the account of killed Russians in the last decades, we can assume it was the FSB, but we're not 100% sure.


We can assume that behind Dugina assassination was a Western letter agency, or Ukrainian one...but we're not 100% sure.




I have multiple theories on this, and the only one that makes sense to me, considering the full travel ban of Russian in Europe and the FACT that Dugina was much more valuable alive then dead, is that a Western agency in cooperation with SBU, targeted Dugina, and not her father.


In order to portray the Russians as "evil" as Putin, to "encourage" any European country reticent to ban Russian travel, all you need is to provoke an emotional reaction in the Russian society, and let the social media unfold messages of hate toward Ukraine and the West, and use those messages, which are thousands of them, to portray Russian people as "crazy", "evil", "barbarians", etc.


If in the process you kill a figure that means something to the Russians, the better. Dugina was much more active then the father, and she was, ALIVE, an asset for Kremlin.


On top of the above reasoning, the pressure on Putin to retaliate will be IMMENSE, and he will have to retaliate, escalating the Ukrainian conflict, giving Western propaganda another reason to push the anti-Russian agenda, to increase sanctions, to increase arms sales to not only Ukraine, but at least in Eastern Europe and Baltic countries, to defend against the barbarian hordes from Russia.

Is this assassination not an attempt to set the stage for a false flag?

In the next few days NATO may even blow up a daycar3 full of b@bi3s that the western media will sell the news that it was Russian revenge for her death.

Just speculating, I don't know anything.

What?!!!!

Can’t be...

Terror attacks, despite its name, are not envisioned to create terror among the civilian population, though it might be a welcome colateral effect. Terror attacks are one important tool in asymmetric warfare when one side is clearly underpowered and unable to wage war conventionally. Its main objective is to alter and affect the strategy and the direction set by the most powerful part, most of the times by provoking an escalation of the conflict were the weakest part may start suffering heavy civilian casualties that might improve support for continuing the fight among locals and from abroad.

The fact that from the very beginning NATO-Ukraine have been using terror tactics against the Russians (shelling of civilians; torture, mutilation and killing of russian POWs; shelling of nuclear plants and now assassination of Daria Dugina) is a clear statement of how weak, conventionally speaking, are western forces on the ukrainian battlefield.

Ukraine might be now close to a point where most non-russian speaking civilians start to be fed up with the war, don’t like the Russians but like less the continuos flow of dead soldiers, with friends and relatives among them and start resenting the economic hardship in a country with already lots of economic problems and massive emigration before the war. That potential social unrest might render all the military strategy of the West useless, even provoking a complete collapse of the Ukranian state no matter how much money you pour into it.

Because of the above, further terror attacks and apparently reckless actions from the ukrainian side are to be expected in order to steer Russia off its set strategy, whatever that one is, which we can guess but only a handful of people know in detail.

Timing in this war is paramount. I believe an escalation, or any kind of retaliation is against russian interests. The apparent stalemate, which in reality is a slow erosion of the Ukrainian military and state structures while consolidating every inch of ground advances, brings Russia invaluable military training for its ground forces (as so many times has brilliantly pointed out the OP) and a lot of economic benefits while jeopardising, maybe for years to come, the economic viability of Western Europe, its social structures and everything than civilians there have taken for granted for decades.

The desperate open call of European leaders to their populations to accept sacrifices clearly shows how dire the situation it is and how much they need an escalation to switch to a war economy, which will allow to camouflage those sacrifices as war effort. In that strategy is paramount further vilification of the Russians, paired with a real or staged attack on European civilians.

Hard times ahead, clearly Russia’s strategy and responses will outline our imminent future as Europeans. I do hope common sense keeps guiding the Kremlin decisions.

Indeed. Both China and Russia are clearly avoiding (for now) any escalation whatsoever with the US/NATO. Heck they are making a fucking point NOT TO escalate "no matter what". Which means that they aren't fully prepared or not willing yet to do what it takes to change the current dynamic imposed by the US.

And the US, well aware of that, will also make a point to humiliate both and kick'em on the balls until this "escalation reluctance" ends.

So august is ending and the Taiwan thing oddly went completely silent. I guess we will know soon enough but I suspect this may flare up with full force at any moment, unless some serious negotiations are ongoing between China and US, but I really doubt. As for the invasion hypothesis, Scott Ritter explained that this implies a massive bombardment of military targets and any attempt of an invasion would only happen if the risks would be minimal for China. So it would be more accurate to say that China would attack/demilitarize Taiwan before sending any occupying force. But I also agree that a real blockade would be a logical first/initial step before the kinetic options. This I believe is still on the cards for the current year.

As for Russia.... well, despite the latest developments, and the month-old rumor of a "shock-and-awe" around the corner.... I suspect nothing relevant will be done by Russia barring some really extraordinary provocation by Kiev/Nato.

Putin dug it's heels on the ground and is making a point of not escalating "no matter what". Well... it's his choice and how long he will be able to keep this up, and even if in light of the broader conflict looming against US/nato this is really the wisest strategy, remains to be seem.

My guess is Russia hopes that when donbass falls, there will be some posture-change by the US and some kind of negotiation will be possible. I surely hope that Putin is not betting on that outcome, because I'm convinced that there will be NO compromise with the US ever. And when Putin realizes this, that no matter what, the US will keep using Kiev to inflict pain and damage to Russia ad eternum, the same Kiev that Russia is, contrary to traditional warfare logic, making a huge effort to keep intact with all it's leaders and decision centers....well.... they will SNAP for sure.

The cumulative shit Russia is swallowing so far, avoiding any "sudden moves" with all it's restraint etc, is likely predicated on the expectation that the economic pressure in Europe + the de facto victory on the donbass will force a posture change by the west to some kind of new status-quo that is manageable by Russia.

And I'm sure the US will make a point to guarantee that NO "manageable" outcome is EVER reached in Ukraine for Russia, forcing it keep reacting until bled dry as the US intends to, OR Russia will bring the fight direct to the instigators.

In about 6 months Russia will understand that a fight(soon, not 10-20 years in the future) with US/Nato is unavoidable and that's when we will see serious preparations by Russia for a big scale war, not inside Ukraine but globally. If the Taiwan situation doesn't blow-up this year, then next year for sure things will line-up for the kinetic phase of WW3.

I have really enjoyed all the commentary as of late, from DR and everyone else.

I am no political strategist, but was wondering if we may see escalation by the US (via NATO or others) as we get closer to the November elections in the US?

I have a suspicion that someone in Washington DC may think going to a war footing via real or false flag may help keep the Dems in power (in appearance) and win votes. Knowing how this administration has handled things in the past, I believe it would be disastrous, but they have displayed terrible judgement before.

Thoughts?

I believe if we get to October without incident, then it is unlikely China will invade Taiwan. The increased cyclone activity and strong currents through and around the Straights makes an invasion difficult in October through the spring of next year.

I do not think the Dems want war with China. However, if the world sees a terrible financial crisis in the next few months, leaders may be looking for a diversion and stress from the populace in all countries will be high... We are headed in that direction.

Do you understand the difference between TALKING and ACTION?


Erdogan is SAYING STUFF pro-Ukraine, while SIGNING TREATIES worth tens of billions with RUSSIA. Turkey is also going to join BRICS, and that is not talking, but ACTION.



I am sorry, but Turkey is with Russia.




The same way Ukraine is winning on tik-tok and twitter, the same way is Erdogan pro-Ukraine.

[link to www.businessinsider.in (secure)]

Indeed… the rest is just propaganda and positioning for reconstruction of what is left of Ukraine.

[link to asiatimes.com (secure)]

Op I don't know if russia could really trust turkey. Remember russia and turkey are at war in Siria, turkey is a historical enemy of Russia, turkey surely doesn't want the black sea to become a Russian lake... If I was putin I wouldn't trust at all. Turkey needs russian gas and grain but nothing more

Even proxy war in Syria is too costly for both parties right now. They have conflicting interests in the long term but it’s in their benefit to get along, at least for the next couple of years. Not strategic partners but neither are they enemies at the moment.

In the long term Turkey will try to reach an understanding with Russia. It’s more beneficial for them than conflict.

In the long term russia and turkey have been enemies for centuries... Since their birth if I am not wrong. They have fought dozens of wars

What happened to clevercreator

Asking for evidence is not trolling.

So you say... and so says Putin.

Putin calls it "the special military operation".

It's an invasion. An invasion and the invaded country is still trying to defend itself.

OK to call it a "special war"?

And Korea and Vietnam were not wars either.

Smells like sacrifice of a pure soul...

Not suprising to see Dugin walk away though, especially with his OTO connections, men such as us are very hard to kill. Probably heard that trademark, near audible disincarnate whisper say "Other Car".

If you wouldn't be that dumb, I would explain the difference.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/26/2022 10:48 AM

Those were wars.


Are you as dumb as the AC, not to know the difference?

Of course they were wars in the physical sense, but officially they were called "police actions", sounds a bit like a special military operation.

Ok, it seems that you need a small history lesson.


But FIRST...the Earth doesn't revolve around the U.S. You will understand WHY I tell you this.


BOTH Korean and Vietnam wars were CIVIL WARS BEFORE ANYONE ELSE got involved.


The SECOND a third part got involved, they got involved IN A civil WAR.


Now, up until this point, it is similar to Ukraine civil war, and Russia getting involved in a civil war qualifies also as war.



Let's go into differences, shall we?


Korean war first. The U.S., U.K., China and U.S.S.R were present on the front lines, along with TWENTY OTHER COUNTRIES, under the U.N. banner, WITH ACTIVE COMBAT TROOPS, OFFICIALLY.


24 countries got involved in the Korean civil war, which DE FACTO and DE JURE was a fucking WAR, with a total of 3.5 MILLION TROOPS.


Vietnam next.


Again, a civil war. How many other countries got involved? 12 other countries and several armed factions outside Vietnam, with a total of over 2.3 MILLION TROOPS.



The number of casualties is irrelevant, what is RELEVANT is how many countries got involved in the Korean, respectively Vietnam war, with how many troops, so we can safely DEFINE those conflicts as WARS.


Another important aspect is that in both Korean and Vietnam wars we've witnessed general mobilizations on both sides. In Ukraine, only one side did it.



In Ukraine, there are only 3 parties involved : the Ukrainian Army, the Separatist Forces and the Russian Army. Mercs are IRRELEVANT, they are present anywhere where a conflict is, and they do not define a conflict.



While there are similarities between the Korean and Vietnam wars and the conflict in Ukraine, the differences (mainly number of countries involved and number of troops), are those that define the first 2 as WARS, and the latter as anything you want...but not a WAR.



I am not playing semantics here, but I have to consider, by comparison, what defines as a WAR and what defines as anything else (armed conflict, U.N. intervention, U.S. police action, Russia's special military operation, etc. etc.).



We're a at the edge of properly defining the Ukrainian conflict as WAR, but we're still not there yet.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/26/2022 12:03 PM

Amen, brother

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From the above:

After the imposition of large-scale anti-Russian sanctions due to the launch of a special operation in Ukraine, Moscow began to look for ways to circumvent the restrictions or at least reduce their impact on the Russian economy and the daily life of citizens.

First of all, officials and political scientists remembered China, which is considered the main ally of all those who for various reasons have disagreements with the West.

The main calculation was connected with the help to create new supply channels for the necessary imports and trade of Russian products.

However, in reality, it turned out that selling - mainly oil - in China is possible only at a discount, and buying modern equipment - for example, telecommunications from Huawei - does not work at all.
...
Additional difficulties arose with the import of Chinese aircraft parts and the use of UnionPay national payment system cards - many Western shops refuse to accept those issued by Russian banks.

Even smartphones, laptops and other consumer electronics familiar to Russians began to arrive from China in significantly smaller quantities since the spring: in some categories, the supply volume decreased by seven times. Gadgets from Huawei itself, presented in the windows of branded Russian stores, are not available for purchase.

However, China, despite the rhetoric of its authorities, can hardly be called an ideal partner in the face of sanctions, and economic relations with it are very close.


Open support from Turkey

...

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Ankara has announced the rejection of sanctions against Moscow, citing its own economic interests.
...
In 2019, Turkish banks started cooperating with the National Payment Card System (NSPK) and supporting Mir cards issued by it.

After February 24 this year, their number increased: now you can withdraw money (Turkish lira) from the ATMs of four credit institutions, including the major Ziraat, Halkbank and DenizBank, and you can pay with the Mir card in restaurants.

With the departure of Visa and Mastercard from Russia, for many Russians flying via Istanbul, Ankara or Antalya to Europe and other countries, this option has become a lifesaver. People redeem pounds at the airport or when leaving the city for transport and then exchange them for the desired currency.

Comparison: in China, only AliExpress marketplace accepts Mir cards.
...

In addition to their own products, Turkish companies are ready to sell other people's products. So, at the end of August it became known that the fashion retailer Flo will now sell clothes and shoes in Russia from the American Reebok, which left the country after the launch of the special operation.

...

Since the beginning of the year, Turkey has doubled its purchases of Russian oil - from 98,000 barrels per day last year to 200,000.

...


At the same time, both the European Union and the United States recognize that there are not too many levers of pressure on Turkey and Erdogan personally
...
Furthermore, Turkey is a member of NATO and sanctions against it would be tantamount to breaking up the alliance.

------

For those thinking that China and Russia are now "best friends forever", the facts presented above give a glimpse of the true state of the "alliance" between China and Russia. Yes, there are some serious cooperation on key military issues, but if anyone wondered why there's still NO mutual self-defence pact, which would be a logical evolution from where things seems to stand between the two, the absolute lack of will by China to openly defy US sanctions against Russia, gives a huge clue of why.

And from where we less expect something.... Turkey of all places is, right now, showing to be a far better economic partner for Russia than China.

About China.... still nothing on the Taiwan issue anywhere. The military drills ended, it's not clear if they disbanded or not the already mobilized capacity..... so far the issue seems completely muted. The only thing I found was how China is erasing the "median line", a line conceived by a US general in 1954 to keep Taiwan and China apart... hurray.

So much for all that war chanting by China. The only concrete goal post that I would recognize as being truly significant is if China would at least put a definitive stop to US weapons sales to Taiwan.

If China doesn't manage even that, well..... lets see what happens until october. The US being the prototypical bully, will keep getting it's way until stopped. And they already smelled China's hesitance to actually do something.

That is A LOT of hogwash.


Sparkled with little bits of truth, to make it believable.


To answer your post, and to prove it that it is mostly BS, I would need to have a reply akin to an update.


So, I would rather have an update, to clarify some important FACTS (actual facts) on the current situation, how we get here, and where we going.


A readout of my latest 6-7 updates would do the trick, but I think a separate update should be better.

While you are making your update...

An unnamed investigative journalist in mexico sez:
(paraphrased)
That in regards to the nuclear power plant, of which russia has/had control, russia could clear a large secuity zone around the plant and protect it, but they arent doing so.
Why?
Putin is in on this whole thing along with his wef pals, and putin is taking orders like all the other global "leaders".

Putin has yet to make the big move that shows he is in this for real.

What say you OP?

Looks like "journalists" are equally dumb across the world, matters not if they are in the U.S., Mexico, Germany or Romania.


Let me explain to you, first how the AREA around the NPP looks like, because while I can accept a regular Joe NOT TO KNOW things, even if they are simple, a "journalist" is either dumb as fuck, or paid to spew propaganda.



The NPP at Energodar (people say Zaporoje, the region IS Zaporoje, but the town that is right next to the NPP is Energodar) is on A RIVER, which borders it along the Northern side.


Across the river...IS UKRAINIAN CONTROLLED TERRITORY, from which they use to shell the NPP.



So, in order to SECURE the entire area AROUND the NPP...Russia MUST conquer AT LEAST 70 km NORTH, NE and NW of the river, so HIMARS can't hit the NPP.


While they already SECURED the other sides (South, East and West)...IT IS NOT enough.



To be able to secure the Northern, North-Western and North-Eastern area off the NPP, Russia must control everything in between AND including the cities of Zaporoje, Krivoy-Rog and Dnepropetrovsk, in an area that is the upper half of the circle NEEDED to stop any current range of attacks that can hit the NPP.



They secured the bottom half of the circle with the center at the NPP, but the upper half is fully controlled by the Ukrainians, and contains 3 major cities : Krivoy-Rog (650,000 people), Zaporoje (750,000 people) and Dnieprpetrovsk (1 million people).




I don't know in what world that journalist lives in, but he either didn't opened a map, to see where is what, or he did, but he is masticating globalist propaganda.



Highly likely both of the above.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/27/2022 06:59 AM