WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Why would China suffer large loses attacking Taiwan?

The answer is so complex, it would require way too much time to give it to you.



The short answer is that an invasion of Taiwan, without a massive bombardment campaign first (which will trigger WW3), will end up with tremendous losses on China's side.


It would be 100 times worse then Normandy.



I don't believe that China wants to destroy half of Taiwan, and kill tens of thousands of CHINESE PEOPLE (every Taiwanese is actually CHINESE), just to take over Taiwan with minimal losses.


There are better ways to do, without destroying Taiwan, without killing Chinese people, and without starting WW3.



And if it will start WW3, they can take over Taiwan, without an invasion, but instead of killing Chinese in Taiwan, they will kill South Koreans, Japanese and Americans, to the point where Taiwan will be left with no allies able to help them.


They will simply CAVE.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/04/2022 03:46 PM

If it weren't for the 3 weeks "operational pause" of Russian forces, my prediction about Donbass falling before August, would have been correct.



Now, it's before September, maybe middle of September.



And once this happens, watch Taiwan, Kosovo and Strait of Hormuz.



Maybe even Hezbollah and Israel.



Note : I haven't expected AT ALL that Pisky and Avdeevka would be targeted BEFORE Seversk or Bakhmut be secured.


Damn Russians. They really like to go after toughest positions.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/04/2022 03:57 PM

Taiwan has little to no military experience. Taiwan nationals will fold if they fight at all.

Last Edited by PEEBALLS on 08/04/2022 04:08 PM

I think the fight will be short. But not as short as Tibet :(

DR do you think there is a plan here between Russia and China? Both communist in their main orientation?

Neither Russia, nor China are communist.


I lived under communism, and I know what communism is and what isn't.



Russia is a democracy that is almost exactly as democratic as France.



China is an autocratic regime, BUILT on communist principles, but is not longer communist since at least 1997.


Communism is a regime with ZERO PRIVATE enterprises, ZERO PRIVATE property, or very, very limited private property.



If I would want to label China, politically...I would say it is a half-commie, half-corporatism, half-militaristic, half dictatorial regime.


If you ask "why so many halves", it is because the complexity of Chinese society makes IMPOSSIBLE to say what China is.



But I can say with 100% confidence, that China, whatever it is, IT IS NOT communist.


They do have a plan, and that is to end the U.S. hegemony and stop NWO global government, replacing it with a multipolar world.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/04/2022 05:58 PM

And you are basing a short, low loss fight against Taiwan on what?

There is a 3:1 theory, that it takes 3 attackers/invaders for every one defender. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for years.

What is the casualty comparison between Ukraine and Russia? It's not easy to overtake an entrenched defending force with the home field advantage.

Actually it is possible for China to win the war with Taiwan, detonate a few nuclear above Taiwan sky to create EMP to disable as much electronic and communication as possible (except for certain EMP hardened military equipment). This could be the reason China is practicing flying missiles over Taiwan?

Taiwan doesn't have nuclear to do the same thing to China.

But I doubt there will be a war between China and Taiwan, both are trying to restrain now.

USA seeing nothing is happening, is now going to send aircraft carriers to exercise at Taiwan straits, USA very desperate to start a war between China and Taiwan no matter what it takes.

The theory is to let all my enemy engaged in a war (using their opponents soldier as cannon fodders, in this case, Ukraine and Taiwan) to weaken Russia and China, while USA will do nothing and gets stronger just by selling weapon.

Once both Russia and China is very weak at the end of the war, USA will then make the move to finish both Russia and China.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Nobody is fighting for nations anymore.

We were all attacked with a bioweapon and our nations were not able to protect us. Even worse: The nations became parts of the evil forces which are killing silently the masses now.

Why should we fight for nations which didn't protected us?

All those nations have lost their existence right, now they are only frontier lines on landsacapes, with no meaning anymore.

There will be no old war, because old frontiers do not count anymore. The whole world is the battlefield of this dirty biowar against all us.

According to YOUR list of justifications above, the OP had justification to delete your post. Anytime you post Rodney Dangerfield doing the ok sign, you just hit mockery and disrespect. Those are YOUR conditions and you hit two of them.

Next time, just ask the OP to further expand on how Russia is more democratic than communist instead instead of the snarky post you made.

I don't know what weakening you see in the case of Russia vs Ukraine, because what I see is Russia actually getting stronger.


Maybe you bought all that BS about tens of thousands of Russian losses and their GDP drop by 15%, but if those figures were actually right, Russia would have already lost Crimea and Donbass to Ukraine, and there would be massive riots in Russia, because a 15% GDP loss is catastrophic for any economy.


As for China vs Taiwan, I am sorry, but a war between China and Taiwan, without any other parties, will not even dent into China's massive military and economy.


If Russia wasn't affected, except marginally, China for sure won't be affected almost at all.



The sanctions against Russia are having much more negative effect into Western countries, so, I don't know who's getting weaker. Sanctioning China would be much worse for the West, since they make all the cheap crap.


Russia deployed 150,000 troops in Ukraine, and those troops are rotated 2 weeks in, 3 weeks out, hardly having losses at all since May, but gaining invaluable combat experience. Russia throw A LOT of their old crap into Ukraine, most being given to militias, who actually do most of the fighting.


When you have a standing army of 1 million people, sending 150,000 in Ukraine, barely having any losses in the war (war according to Ukraine, because they are getting slaughtered, for Russia is a special military operation) since like forever now, your economy is actually GROWING, trade relations and volumes with HUGE countries like China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, etc. are getting stronger and bigger, I really fail to see how exactly Russia is getting weakened.


If Japan and South Korea would intervene in a potential war between China and Taiwan, the ones who will get weaker will be the U.S. allies in the region and Europe, trade in the area will stop, which will affect the entire world, and the U.S. will have to go to war, very soon, because otherwise it will collapse economically.



The U.S. will have to go to war WAY BEFORE any attrition will affect China or Russia.


Long term, the U.S. will collapse economically, if they choose to play the obvious dumb card of "weakening your enemy", and short term, they will have to go to war to avoid the collapse, and this means direct attacks on U.S., Chinese, Russian, European and Asian cities, which will affect EVERYONE.



As for the U.S. getting "stronger" by selling weapons...you must be joking. The money the U.S. makes from weapons sales are INSIGNIFICANT. A simple 0.1% inflation rise would wipe those profits, that's how small those profits are in the grand economy of the U.S.


You need to understand that your theory is very, very wrong. There is no option of weakening your enemy, because the enemy is too damn strong, economically resilient, they prepared for this war at least since 2012, and their enemies (Ukraine, Taiwan) are very weak, no matter how hard they fight, they ARE WEAK.


Weak enough to be able to inflict such losses for Russia or China to actually weaken them enough for the U.S. to have a cake walk.



If Ukraine would do to Russia what Russia is doing to Ukraine, yes, that is WEAKENING your enemy. But up until NOW, all I see is Russia conquering Ukraine, destroying their army, their cities, villages, having almost no losses (militia losses are big, but Russia's losses are minimal), while Ukraine did what in return INSIDE Russia?


So you see, unless Ukraine starts bombing multiple Russian cities, invades Russia, inflicts massive losses to Russia...Russia is getting STRONGER, not weaker.


Same will be for China and Taiwan.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/05/2022 03:46 AM

What was the date or your post that was deleted? What were you saying?

Thanks Recollector, sorry, didn't type clearly just now, actually I mean/guess USA's original intention is to use Ukraine to corner Russia, then prolong and weaken Russia through the war but obviously Russia is now winning/stronger instead, cheers. :-)

Thanks for correcting me too and explaining, I now understand more on the possible outcome of China/Taiwan. :-)

Last Edited by whitepiedtv on 08/05/2022 04:00 AM

Oh. Good thing you made the correction.



Absolutely, that was the U.S. intention and still is. Weaken Russia and China through proxy wars.


The U.S. will fight until last Ukrainian, them last Polish, then last Romanian, etc., and in the case of Taiwan, until the last Taiwanese, then Japanese, then last South Korean, etc.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/05/2022 04:14 AM

>>The U.S. will fight until last Ukrainian, them last Polish, then last Romanian, etc., and in the case of Taiwan, until the last Taiwanese, then Japanese, then last South Korean, etc.<<

:-) Exactly, you are 100% right, USA will let all others die first before risking their own soldiers.

:-) Btw Recollector, I pro peace and against war/killing from either side as I am really scared of the nuclear war end game, what percentage of chances (at this point of time) do you think all these conflicts will end up in full nuclear war?

Raven 3 is predicting 100% chances of nuclear war few months back, hope to have your predictions in this area too, thanks in advance.

I give very low chances for nuclear war, for the near future.



If, and only if the U.S. gets directly involved in a large war against Russia and China, and not a limited skirmish, and if one of the sides is losing BADLY, I see the potential of nukes being used.


Russo-Chines plan is to goat the U.S. into direct conflict, so they can pummel the U.S. military in Europe and pacific, and strategic location across the U.S. proper.


But, this might take a while, the U.S. is not in the position of going to war against Russia and China.



I keep saying Russia AND China, because it won't be Russia OR China.

:-) Really thanks a lot Recollector, your explanation is very assuring and comforting, at least I don't have to keep worrying about full nuclear war for the time being, will wait for your marker (i.e. USA need to be at war with both Russia and China first), cheers. :-)

Last Edited by whitepiedtv on 08/05/2022 04:35 AM

What would China gain out of "pummelling" the US military? There seems to be no point in it if there is no ulterior motive and purpose, is there?

It would be just some bully's behavior on a school playing ground, wouldn't it?

That doesn't sound like the result of political thinking.

I have explained multiple times what Russia and China are planning to do, with Russia doing it, and China soon to follow.



You probably disagree with my assessment, and this is why you don't see "the point" of U.S. military and U.S. strategic locations in the U.S. being destroyed.



Political thinking you say?



I hope you do realize that WAR is 100% a political decision, taken 100% for political reasons, with 100% political outcome...right?

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/05/2022 08:32 AM

They should have deleted the other thread. It's causing more and more division with the hate. It used to have informative updates early on but turned south.

If you question anything they post, they ban you.

In my opinion, this is further proof of DR's assessment. North Korea wants to harden their troops for, future engagements. The AXIS is shaping up, Russia / China / North Korea.

Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports.

A leading defence expert in Moscow, reserve colonel Igor Korotchenko, told state TV: “We shouldn’t be shy in accepting the hand extended to us by Kim Jong-un.”

North Korea has made it clear through “diplomatic channels” that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force, reported Regnum news agency.

They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.

“The country is ready to transfer up to 100,000 of its soldiers to Donbas,” said the report by the pro-Kremlin news agency.

“Pyongyang will be able to transfer its tactical units to Donbas.”

In return, grain and energy would be supplied to Kim’s stricken economy.

The claim was seized on by Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Russia’s National Defence journal on Rossiya 1 channel, who said: “There are reports that 100,000 North Korean volunteers are prepared to come and take part in the conflict.”

He was challenged on whether they could be volunteers from North Korea where total obedience is required.

The Chinese regime is politically and economically very similar to the Spanish regime of the 1960s but with the advances of 2022

The Chinese rhetoric, warnings and threats was so "over the top", repeated by every high-ranking official including Xi telling Biden directly that quote about playing with fire.... all this is unprecedented and is generating quite the cognitive dissonance among analysts everywhere.

The overreacting hypothesis is the only that would explain an end result that doesn't match the unprecedented tone of all those threats.

However it's difficult to think the Chinese leadership would collectively commit such elementary mistake. If it was any other country sure, but China? Difficult to believe.

And IF all those threats were not an overreaction it can only mean one thing: They WILL go after the forced-reunification scenario, ending once and for all this Taiwan crap.

As for China being capable: They are more then able to do this and the US can't do shit to stop, short of appealing to nukes. Many honest US analysts repeated many times that. Also, the US conduct periodic war games regarding Taiwan, and there was no set of circumstances under which the US was able to win. So, China won every time. In fact what I heard more than once was how the window of opportunity for China to retake Taiwan by force would close by 2025 or so, when the US would then be able to actually prevent that, but I never see a proper analysis explaining why.

The fact is that, today, there's no doubt about the outcome of a forced-retake scenario (China win hands down), just as there is no doubt that Russia would win the donbass (plus odessa for sure and some other extras). Same thing regarding Israel+US x Iran. Israel war-gamed this scenario many times, and even with US support they would not beat Iran and just an attempt to do so would immediately destroy the world economy overnight, given what Iran would do if attacked.

So now that all those threats were issued, the question is if they will go for Taiwan this year. The weather will be propice for such move by september. So this month would be only the preparation.

The thing to keep an eye for is the build-up of forces. If it keeps UP it means only one thing. If they finish the drills and start to disperse/call-back the forces then nothing will happen this year and the "overreaction" hypothesis will be consummated, along with a big loss of face by China. If China has all of this properly planned, they will keep making moves eluding both the US and Taiwan until the "go" moment arrives (before october for sure).

Finally if that happens and the US try to intervene, I fully expect Russia to join the party somehow, at least tying Japan hands to prevent they from joining the US.

Is Russia a democracy almost like France? Putin is a relentless assassin, the number of dissidents he had killed, usually with poison, is unbelievable. There are times when being too polite is to condone the intolerable, OP is undoubtedly a malicious guy when he flatters the Russian regime and its psychopathic leader.

[link to www.businessinsider.com (secure)]

And these are just a few examples.

And here is a perfect example of an idiot.


Quoting western MSM to "prove" a point is stupid. Quoting any MSM to prove a point is stupid.



Putin killed dissidents...sure he did./s


I mean, are you fucking stupid? We DON'T KNOW SHIT about what is happening with those killings. Western MSM is using the USSR playbook to present Russia as being exactly the same.


UNTIL TODAY, there is ZERO proof, that any of the deaths of the "dissidents" are because of Russia's hand.



Do you know HOW EASY would be for ANY organization that kills people to kill those dissidents? Those killings, if made by CIA, or MI6, or Mossad, or even fucking Albanian security are impossible to prove who did it.



But the best option for western MSM is to blame Putin and Russia, and looking at the VAST majority of people that live in the West, who are complete IDIOTS, western MSM have maximum success regardless of what they say.



Point in case, the Ghost of Kiev.



If the VAST majority of the idiots in the West BELIEVED THAT SHIT, ofc they will believe ANYTHING.




So, we don't know who killed those "dissidents". We KNOW who put them in prison (and that is Russia), but prison IS NOT murder.



Is there ANY difference between Putin imprisoning some tards in Russia, and Macron stealing elections first time? Or accusing LePen of colluding with Russia because of a loan, second time? Who gives a FLYING FUCK on HOW things are made if the end result is the same?



Yes, Russia is a democracy like France. The possibility that France is NOT a democracy, is another story. Well, in this case, Russia isn't EITHER.



Let this into your brain, little French boy, so you will be able to understand some basics :


RUSSIA IS NOT USSR, THERE ARE NO DEMOCRACIES LEFT IN THE WORLD, AND IF THERE ARE ANY DEMOCRACIES LEFT, RUSSIA IS ONE OF THEM.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/06/2022 06:51 AM

[link to www.rt.com (secure)]

from the above:

The question now is what will China do? The current diplomacy card has, for all intents and purposes, been exhausted. While China has imposed certain economic sanctions on Taiwan, the reality is the sanctions card, as wielded by China, is insufficient to the task of responding to the Pelosi provocation.

This leaves a military response.

China has already engaged in an unprecedented mobilization of military resources, by some accounts assembling more than 40 brigades, along with significant air defense and ballistic missile forces, hundreds of aircraft, and scores of ships. By rough calculation, this amounts to some 250,000 troops, and it doesn’t appear as if the mobilization is complete. China has announced that it will be holding live fire exercises around the periphery of Taiwan, including some that encroach on what Taiwan considers to be its sovereign space, running from August 4, the day after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan, through August 7.


There is considerable cost, both in terms of fiscal resources and political capital, attached to military exercises of this scale during times of crisis. By mobilizing this amount of military resources, China has created a “use it or lose it” situation, where the military viability of the assembled force dissipates over time. The key question that needs to be answered is will China be satisfied with simply sending a signal to Taiwan and return its forces to their respective barracks once the exercises conclude, or if the Chinese government has determined that a red line has been crossed, and as such orders its military to transition from a live fire exercise to an actual invasion.
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Guess we will find out very soon. Probably China will give some sort of ultimatum to Taiwan and they will have to give some kind of very significative "non-independence guarantees" to stop an invasion. Just like Russia issued it's ultimate first to NATO then to Ukraine right before invading. The same playbook is going on here. If China doesn't pull back it's forces, even if the Drill "ends" by monday as announced, this will be the sign that there will be no de-escalation and the invasion will still be on the cards until everything is ready to "go".

I should have said "good political thinking" I suppose (not claiming I am an expert though). If there is nothing to be gained out of "pummelling" the US military then was this good political thinking from the Chinese side?

Sure, you can call anything closely or remotely related to war "political" but that doesn't make it necessarily good political thinking... as I expect you yourself would know, judging from everything you have already shown to be savvy about in this area.