WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I will try to gather my thoughts considering how much had happened since I was banned, and put them in a fashionable order, as much as I possibly can.


First, I want to get rid of some events that are minor, and not having a real impact. Boris resigning is only a sign that there is some backlash in the U.K. politics, due to sanctions backfiring. But, the U.K. stance regarding Russia, Ukraine and their side on WW3 will not change.


Secondly, the killing of Shinzo Abe. A tragic event (a man was killed) that have no meaning whatsoever, except for Japan.



Having that put aside, I will start with Putin's last speech. What he said is important, very important actually, especially the part that "we haven't started in earnest yet in Ukraine" and "if the West wants to defeat us on the battlefield, they can try", but what is more important is Putin's body language while he was having his speech.



He looked happy. Well, as happy as a former KGB officer can look. Clearly he knows he is in control of the events. After a series of gatherings (from St.Petersburg, to BRICS, to Caspin Sea and Foreign Ministers G20) it is clear, at least for me, that Russia secured the rest of the world, either support (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia) either non-involvement (lots of countries, too big of a list) either slowly detaching some countries from the U.S. influence (Mexico, Argentina).



The speech came on the heels of those meeting, and also on the heels of the massive win in Lysychansk-Sieverodonetsk area.



On the economic side, Russia is winning and the West is losing. Time is on Russia's side, and they know it. The West also knows it.



There are several things that I am expecting to happen before this month is over. I have estimated that by the end of July, Ukraine fate will be sealed : their army will be reduced to an insignificant force. Mid-June I gave Ukraine 6 weeks before their army will be defeated. Time is running out for Ukraine, as a nation.



The only thing I do not know is if the West will escalate before Ukraine army is defeated, and keep the war in Ukraine as long as possible, before it spills over in Europe, or entrench in Eastern Europe and wait for the inevitable Russian advance towards NATO borders.



Militarily, it makes perfect sense for NATO to escalate to WW3 before Ukraine army is defeated, but I am not sure that the West have all the marbles in place to do so. It remains to be seen.




I am expecting a MASSIVE Russian offensive in Ukraine, once the order is given. This "pause" that lasted for a week is almost over. Once Russian re-deployment is complete, the world will witness the biggest battle since WW2.


The way things are looking on the field, as much as I could gather, Russia will attack on multiple axes, but the main 2 will be from Izyum towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, and from east towards Siversk-Bakhmut line.



I expect heavy Ukrainian resistance, but it will be short lived, and will end up with at least 20,000 dead/captured Ukrainian soldiers in a matter of weeks. Russians will have their losses too, mainly among militias, but not more then 2,000 dead.



It is going to be bloody. 60,000 Russian and allied troops will face off around 80,000 Ukrainian troops, of which most will be weak trained and poor armed Territorial Defense Units.


Aside Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which will be surrounded, everything else in the Russian path will be overrun. Siversk, Bakhmut, Konstantinovka, and smaller towns and villages will fell fast.


Slavyanks and Kramatorsk will not stand up for long, once they are encircled.



This offensive is the most critical period for all sides, and the most risky for escalation.



One aspect I must address is HIMARS. 8 of them aren't going to change the outcome in Ukraine. It is simply not enough firepower for a frontline that is 1,000 km long.

However, there are rumors that the U.S. delivered 300km range missiles for HIMARS. If the rumors are true, we will see Ukraine hitting deep into Russian supply lines inside Ukraine.


I hope that Ukraine will not use those missiles to hit Russia proper, but to be sincere, I believe that Ukraine will use them to attack Russia proper, because I see no point in delivering those long range missiles (if the rumors are true) unless to provoke Russia.


Matters not if the missiles have 300 km range, there are still only 8 HIMARS (possibly down to 6), and range doesn't change shit unless coupled with quantity.


Ukraine knows well that without West DIRECT involvement, they will lose the war, and highly possibly their statehood. Those long range missiles will trigger a Russian response that will either be directed at NATO bases, or a massive retaliation across the whole Ukraine, which will be used by the West to intervene.



Then there is Lithuania. The back-up plan. Will see how this develops. But it is not as high risk of escalation (for now) compared to the imminent defeat of Ukrainian army.



The date I really expect to tell us where this conflict is going is July 21st, when the Nordstream 1 should re-start gas deliveries to Europe, after "reparations" are over.


I personally expect that Russia will either stop gas deliveries (if anything big enough happens till then to somewhat justify this) or will just trickle some gas in order to keep Europe on it's toes and use it as a leverage to break Germany off sanctions. Not that Russia gives a shit about lifting sanctions, but if Germany caves, it is another nail in the West coffin.



If there won't be any escalation this month or the next (but I highly believe that it will be), come September, Russia will have defeated Ukrainian army, will have Odessa and Kharkiv conquered, and will start moving towards Kiev and Central Ukraine, with minimal resistance on their way.



The energy and food crisis, along inflation and supply chains being even more broken, will get worse, with every passing week.


There is just too much shit hitting too many fans, the globalists are keen in CONTINUING their agenda, like nothing happened, and all those flying shits will end up in a big shit hitting a giant fan before winter.

waitin g for 'news' ? ?

Obviously.


We still got NOTHING about Putin meeting with the Federation Security Council.



Another thing that confirms my assessment of a rapid advance of Russian offensive is Shoigu's today order on a full on offensive on all areas, this time with FULL INVOLVEMENT of Russian military, not just artillery support for militias, Chechens and Wagner.



I believe that within 48-72 hours we will witness the most massive cruise missile attack to date across Ukraine, far greater then anything before.



This will be the prelude of the final push and utter defeat of Ukrainian army, which I expect to happen, as I previously said, before this month is over.

Obviously.


We still got NOTHING about Putin meeting with the Federation Security Council.



Another thing that confirms my assessment of a rapid advance of Russian offensive is Shoigu's today order on a full on offensive on all areas, this time with FULL INVOLVEMENT of Russian military, not just artillery support for militias, Chechens and Wagner.



I believe that within 48-72 hours we will witness the most massive cruise missile attack to date across Ukraine, far greater then anything before.



This will be the prelude of the final push and utter defeat of Ukrainian army, which I expect to happen, as I previously said, before this month is over.

Looks like this "final push" is not going to happen in the window I have previously believe to happen (48-72 hours).


It might be because several things that need to happen before that, one being cutting off the natural gas to Europe (which, as much as the force majeure announced by Gazprom points to, it is not yet coming out of Putin, Lavrov or Medvedev mouth bluntly say that Russia will stop the natural gas deliveries).


The second one is the meeting currently in Tehran, between Russia, Turkey and Iran, which is extremely important, from Syria situation to even a possible Russian delivery advanced anti-air defense to Iran up to even Russia extending it's nuclear umbrella over Iran.


The third is highly likely Ukraine stupidly throwing way to much into Siverks-Soledar-Bakhmut line, which will change nothing, except that this line will hold LONGER, but Slavyanks-Kramatorsk will fell FASTER.



However, when, not if, the final push happens, which it didn't started when I expected, it is still imminent, a question of days, maybe more, if Ukraine keeps throwing whatever they have left into Bakhmut-Siversk line.



But it is coming. And fast.