WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Those overachieving Indians managed a double mutation.....

It's been a while since I have visited this thread. It appears that I was wrong about Trump ultimately prevailing to continue as the President. However, there could very well be so many things going on behind the curtain....who really knows how it may eventually play out.

This Tom Clancy novel continues with all kinds of twists, turns and surprises with likely many more to come.

Frankly, as much time as I spend following this novel, I still don't know where we are ultimately going or what to believe and that makes it pretty difficult to make any firm plans or take any kind of meaningful action.

In my little corner of the world, the china virus seems like a big nothing burger and my biggest concern has shifted to the vaccines. I have read about soooo many concerns, risks, unknowns, etc. regarding the vaccine that I would rather take my chances with the virus. I am incredibly suspicious of the mrna vaccine that I will not take it.

GLTA

I mentioned Poland earlier as an example of a country that is equal to or worse than Brazil. I am seeing other cases in Eastern Europe and I was surprised by Hungary, 270 dead a day there, a country with only 9.6 million inhabitants. Compared to Brazil, it is as if 6 thousand people are dying a day! This is very serious. There are people who are still sleeping. Everything indicates that, from now on, we will have a scenario that is similar, or worse, than that of the Spanish flu.

Brazil starts to look like what Wuhan was at the same time last year.

"In the 20- to 54-year-old population, this is where most of the confirmed cases of Covid-19 are concentrated today. It is exactly an accentuated feature of these new variants. These are the patients who, in increasing numbers, seek the health system almost always at an advanced stage. "

[link to g1.globo.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/a/GqQ6VsM

Today I had news of 2 more dead and two more families with symptomatic cases among my acquaintances. These are distant cases, but it serves as an example for a phrase that appeared here in April last year "everyone will know someone who died of covid19"

This plague is getting too close to me, I'm starting to get worried.

I think what you think.

There is a name and it is "dystopian"

3650/day

https://imgur.com/a/rC5jfAz

DR! So good to see you! I have some catching up to do on this thread....

Is any of you interested in how fucked up things will be if the efforts to unstuck the ship in the Suez Canal fail today and tomorrow?


I am asking because virtually no one (just like with the pandemic in January 2020) is able to understand what is going on, and because I want you guys to be prepped (just like with the pandemic) ahead of the herd?

Last Edited by Recollector on 03/28/2021 09:49 AM

I'm interested, DR. Here in the States, the only good news I see is on here. MSM barely brings it up and when they do, it's more a fluff piece than info. Thanks.

As always, please do share with us what’s on your mind about, I know the Suez channel clogging is no minor issue and most people is completely oblivious of how bad things can get when supply chains are disrupted.

Yes please share, your input is greatly appreciated

Sure! I'd be happy to hear your take on the situation. Your analysis is always appreciated.

ME!

Very interested in these current events! Plus I see a connection with other incidents in Egypt, Ukraine and North Korea. Do you agree that there is more than meets the eye and attention of media and people?

Last Edited by Italiano Deplorevole on 03/28/2021 11:08 AM

At this point in time, almost everyone downplays the Suez Canal blockage, by simply stating that ships can just go around Africa, and the extra-costs are not that big of a deal.


Sure, mathematically speaking (and I will give 2 examples here), they are right.

One tanker transporting 1 million barrels from Saudi Arabia to Holland, taking the trip around Africa, will see an extra cost of roughly $350,000 (extra fuel, wages, etc.)

Per barrel, that is an extra 35 cents in transport costs.


One barrel is 42 gallons or 159 liters.


Overall, the extra cost per gallon of oil will be 0.8 cents or 0.22 cents per litre.


A container ship with 10,000 containers, with 20 tonnes of goods each, will add an extra $350,000, when taking the trip around Africa.


The extra costs will be $35 per container, or $1.75 per tonne, or 0.17 cents per kilo of goods.




So, it doesn't seem that it's a big deal, right? I mean, 0.22 cents per litre of oil or 0.17 cents per kilo of goods is basically nothing.



If this would be the only thing that will happen if the Suez Canal closes, nobody will give a shit.




The reality is that if that ship isn't out today or tomorrow (with the help of the tide), they will have to start unloading containers, and that will take weeks (they say), but more likely over a month.


I won't go into technical details, because we have no idea what is going on with that ship.



I only want to tell you guys what will happen if the Suez Canal is going to be closed for next 4 weeks, and realize that those saying that going around Africa will only see a price increase that is irrelevant, and maybe some minor delays, with some clogging in the destinations ports, that will last for mere days.



According to statistical data, 90% of the global trade is done by sea.

12% of that trade is done through Suez Canal, and pretty much the ENTIRE traffic is between Europe and Asian countries, including China (you know, the guys who make all the shit we need in Europe to build stuff, from cars, to parts, to clothes, to shoes, to drugs, to food).


Since 90% of the world trade is done by sea, it is safely to say that 90% of trade between Europe and Asia is also done by sea...THROUGH Suez Canal, basically.



Now, while the costs for the trip around Africa are insignificant, this is not WHY the prices will SKYROCKET (and that is the least issue) if the Suez Canal will stay close for just ONE month.



Think about the world we live in. Everything is working like a clock. Ports are ALWAYS fully working. Businesses do not stock up, and the did 30-40 years ago. There are NO ALTERNATIVES to sea shipping.

A single container ship, like Ever Given, with 20,000 containers, is the equivalent of 20,000 RAILROAD CARS.


We have no rail stations able to load/unload JUST the equivalent of Ever Given. Europe is receiving, on a DAILY basis, through Suez Canal, 12-13 container ships and 6-7 oil tankers.

That is AT LEAST 200,000 containers and 6-7 million barrels...A DAY.


There is no way in hell that Europe-Asia can be done by railroad, even if we disregard all the costs (which are about 4 times bigger then sea).



Now, since we excluded every alternative, except going around Africa, let's see the impact, the REAL IMPACT, of ships going around Africa, instead Suez Canal.


If we consider one month of Suez Canal being closed, and assume that ALL the ships that were crossing it will simply go around Africa, Europe will see MASSIVE SHORTAGES of ... everything : oil, gasoline, liquefied gas, textiles, food additives, cereals, chemicals for industry and agriculture, etc.


If we want to put a number on how big those shortages will be, that number is between 40 to 60% LESS stuff coming into Europe, stuff NEEDED for Europe to function AND trade with the rest of the world, for at last one month.



Currently, from the Horn of Africa to Rotterdam, a ship needs 14 days, going through Suez canal.
From the same point, going around Africa, a ship needs 24 days.


That is a 10 days DELAY in trip, which is about 40% of 14 days if the ship would go through Suez Canal.



Now, since we live in a world that works like a clock (well, less in the last year, but still), and there aren't ships just doing nothing...the trade between Europe and Asia will NEED, and this is a FACT, an EXTRA 40% shipping capacity, if the trade volume is to remain unchanged, and everything will keep functioning, in the ENTIRE WORLD, as it was before Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given.



If a tanker transports 1 million barrels every 14 days, from Horn of Africa to Rotterdam, the same tanker will transport the same 1 million barrels, in 24 days.


The thing is, Europe needs that 1 million barrels EVERY 14 DAYS, not every 24 days.


For Europe to get 1 million barrels of oil every 14 days, but tankers go around Africa...well, Europe needs 2 tankers, instead one, or a bigger tanker, with 1.4 million barrels, not 1 million.


Same for everything.



So you see, since the world, TODAY, is working as it is, if the Suez Canal will be closed for next 4 weeks, the raise in prices will be the LAST THING that will matter.


Imagine a business in Europe that NEEDS some crap from Asia, to function, and all of a sudden, it only gets 60% of what it needs.

That business will have to close, at least temporarily.


On top of that, Europe will get only 60% of the oil, and gasoline that is needed by industry, agriculture, trucks, buses, cars, planes...



What will happen, in Europe, when what it needs to function, all of a sudden, is 40% LESS?


What will happen to Asian countries that need shit from Europe, when that is going to be 40% less?



There will be a massive snowball effect, all over the world, if the Suez Canal won't open for another month.


We have no additional ships to cover the deficit, over night. Sea lanes are LONG, ships are contracted for months and YEARS in advance, and NOBODY will just start building ships just because the Suez Canal is closed for a month.


I won't go into other aspects, just this simple one :


IF the trip around Africa is 40% LONGER, the DEFICIT in goods, oil, energy, chemicals, etc. that are NEEDED in Europe and Asian countries that trade with Europe (China mainly) will also be 40%.


Unless we have couple thousands of empty ships, sitting around, doing nothing, ready to pick up this deficit, the shortages will be massive, prices will skyrocket and a TON of businesses will close.



Not only in Europe...but all over the world.



The impact of Suez Canal being closed for ONE MONTH ONLY, will be MASSIVE.




My advice is simple : start prepping like you did when pandemic started.


And pray that they won't fuck it up with that ship, and rush things, possibly causing a break in the hull of the ship or capsizing it.

Last Edited by Recollector on 03/28/2021 11:55 AM

Thanks DR. Good information to keep in mind.

Do you see a pattern behind the Suez Canal blocking?

Last Edited by Italiano Deplorevole on 03/28/2021 12:23 PM

Looks like it's a "go" to unload the cargo.



Thread: Egyptian President Orders Operation To Lift Containers From Trapped Suez Canal Ship


Are sandbars a concern in the area? Can the ground be shifting?

Good to see you back OP!

spot on as always DR. i mentionesd that ship yesterday in giving some predictions for APRIL. the supply chain is already losing ground due to the pandemic. this will add to it.

there is talk that this was done on purpose. it does give a nice excuse for the shortages that will happen. without goods, manufacturing of other goods is slowed or stopped.if u have to keep the lights on and only produce half as much stuff,the prices must double to pay the overhead bills.

the supply chain now has 2 weak links which puts more pressure on other links.could break the chain soon.