Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 2,082 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 976,522
Pageviews Today: 1,743,651Threads Today: 744Posts Today: 13,282
07:46 PM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes

 
InterMezzo

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:27 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Introduction

Looking at all the threads and discussions about the current coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, I thought it was interesting to provide some background information regarding simulations that were done between 2001 and 2019, where a pandemic outbreak situation was played out. They were all organized by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (in combination with others.)

In the past two decades there have been 4 simulations:

Dark Winter (22-23 June 2001.)
Atlantic Storm (14 January 2005.)
Clade X (15 May 2018.)
Event 201 (18 October 2019.)


The first three events were simulations of bioterrorist attack. The first two events were about the deliberate spread of smallpox, the third even about a man made coronavirus and the last event was a simulation of an actual outbreak of a coronavirus originating from pigs.

In my follow up posts I will provide more in depth information of each separate event. This information is freely available on the internet, so I will provide links to event pages, youtube videos and (if available) some media coverage. For the Clade X event I could not find a good summary video, so I downloaded it from FB and uploaded it to YouTube.

Some of the videos have (how could it be else) political statements in them about current or previous administrations. These are not my views or statements. It is up to everyone for themselves to decide which political side they wish to choose or which statements they wish to believe.

Bioterrorism or biological warfare is of all ages. In 1346, the bodies of Mongol warriors who had died of plague were thrown over the walls of the besieged Crimean city of Kaffa (now Theodosia). After a protracted siege, during which the Mongol army under Jani Beg was suffering the disease, they catapulted the infected corpses over the city walls to infect the inhabitants. It has been speculated that this operation may have been responsible for the arrival of the Black Death in Europe. (source Wikipedia.)

For those who want more information on what a pandemic actually is:
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Please keep in mind that for a virus outbreak to be deemed pandemic, time goes by. Information trickling out of China on the current outbreak is insufficient and most likely not correct (in my opinion.) We can argue and ridicule each other about it being a global outbreak or not, but that has no use at this point. Based on the exponential growth in the next 4-6 weeks, this discussion has much more value then. Keep your ears and eyes open and do not believe everything you hear or see. Do help each other getting informed and be prepared just in case.

In that respect this thread is also about awareness.

Because I myself want my family, friends and loved ones to be safe and prepared. I do not wish anyone ill or dead. Not in China, not in the rest of the world. If we can stick together and teach and help the uninformed, together we could save lives, without having to rely on what is fed to us by agenda driven governments or institutions. Lives, of ourselves and others.

I created google doc regarding the progress of the coronavirus, with tables and graphs on official numbers as given by the World Health Organisation. Link:

[link to docs.google.com (secure)]

It contains three tabs (you can find them in the bottom):

- Numbers
- Graph Cases
- Graph Increase in percentage compared to the previous day + number of countries

Source:
[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]

Other source:
[link to bnonews.com (secure)]

I will update this a few times a day for the coming time. Even though these numbers are most likely too low, it at least gives an idea of the trend and the spreading of the virus.

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/29/2020 05:44 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:29 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Event 1: Dark Winter (22-23 June 2001)

Event page:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

The Dark Winter exercise, held at Andrews AFB, Washington, DC, June 22-23, 2001, portrayed a fictional scenario depicting a covert smallpox attack on US citizens. The scenario is set in 3 successive National Security Council (NSC) meetings (Segments 1, 2 and 3) that take place over a period of 14 days. Former senior government officials played the roles of NSC members responding to the evolving epidemic; representatives from the media were among the observers of these mock NSC meetings and played journalists during the scenario's press conferences. (more in link above. Page has internal links to other sections as well, right side, under “Related content”.) George W. Bush was the initiator of the event.

Highlights video:



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Context:
Taiwan-China Tensions
Nuke/Bio Smuggling (Al Qaida / Bin Laden)
Suspected Bioweapon production - Iraq
Southwest Asia tensions Iraq - Kuwait

President remark beginning event:

“..This is an extremely serious situation. Smallpox no longer exists in nature. Presumably, this disease has been deliberately introduced and these cases are the result of a bioterrorist attack on the United States. We have received no notifications from other countries or groups claiming credit, and at present the FBI has no information regarding who might have mounted this attack or how they accomplished it...”

Intelligence briefing:
“..Wide area satellite imagery taken of a suspected bioresearch facility outside of Samarra, Iraq reveals what appears to be an expanded “exclusionary zone” around the facility. Security checkpoints now exist (in a 10 mile radius) on all approaches to the zone. It appears that all civilian activity within the zone has ceased. Several small villages show no signs of human, animal or vehicular activity. Activity in and around the biofacility appears normal..”

Late stage memo to FBI Director:
“..Prominent Iraqi defector is claiming that Iraq arranged the bioweapons attacks on the US through intermediaries. This information is now deemed highly credible. There is no forensic evidence to support this claim however. Iraq has denied any involvement; however Iraq’s Deputy Minister has vowed to retaliate in ‘highly damaging ways’ if US takes action against Iraq...”

Timeline:
Dec 17 2001. End 1st Gen: 3K cases, 1K death US, 10 countries affected.
Jan 3 2002. End 2nd Gen: 30K cases, 10K deaths US, global spread.
Jan 20 2002. End 3rd Gen: 300K cases, 100K deaths US, global spread.
Feb 6 2002. End 4th Gen: 3M cases, 1M deaths US, global spread.

The full script is available here. Warning: Contains graphic pictures!!!:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Summarized (fictional):
Not enough vaccines available (12M), production 12M/month.
Martial law declared. Social unrest. Civil War. Economy crash.
From first cases to full blown in 7 weeks.
Health Care system failed.
Every country / state for their own. No coordination globally.
Closed borders. Travel restrictions.

After this event, G.W. Bush ordered the production of smallpox vaccines for all US citizens.

Questionable events:
September 11, 2001. Twin Tower and other attacks. Al Qaida or staged?
March 20, 2003. Beginning of Iraq War, based on WMD theory.

More on Operation Dark Winter (including external links):
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 04:38 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:29 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Event 2: Atlantic Storm (14 January 2005)

Event page:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

How would world (global) leaders manage the catastrophe of a fast-moving global epidemic of deadly disease? Atlantic Storm was a ministerial table-top exercise convened on January 14, 2005 by the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, the Center for Transatlantic Relations of the Johns Hopkins University, and the Transatlantic Biosecurity Network. The exercise used a fictitious scenario designed to mimic a summit of transatlantic leaders forced to respond to a bioterrorist attack. (more in link above. Page has internal links to other sections as well, right side, under “Related content.” )

Highlights video:



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Video is hidden from search on YouTube.

Context:
Cases of smallpox in Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and Turkey. The attacks were carried out by vaccinated terrorists who walked throughout the target locations for several hours during periods of peak occupancy. A commercially available dry powder dispenser the size of a small fire extinguisher was hidden in a backpack and used to disseminate the agent.

Full scenario here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Summarized (fictional):
From 51 cases to 3.320 cases in 4.5 hours, with transatlantic spread.
Not enough vaccines available (10% of global population.)

Link: [link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]
Lack of coordination between leaders and our country first policy.
See for other conclusions the scenario link above.

More on Operation Atlantic Storm (including external links):
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 04:38 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:30 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Event 3: Clade X (15 May 2018):

Event page:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

The scenario begins with an outbreak of novel parainfluenza virus that is moderately contagious and moderately lethal and for which there are no effective medical countermeasures. The virus is called Prepared as background material by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security for the Clade X tabletop exercise “parainfluenza clade X.” Outbreaks of disease first appear in Frankfurt, Germany, and Caracas, Venezuela, and are spreading person-to-person. The disease is spread primarily by coughing and causes severe symptoms requiring hospitalization and intensive care in about half of the people infected. Overall, 20% of the severely ill patients die. (More in link above, page has links to other sections of the event top, right and below.)

Unlike Ebola, which spreads through direct contact and bodily fluids, the “Clade X” virus in the Johns Hopkins simulation was a flulike respiratory virus, which would spread far more easily from person to person through coughing and sneezing. That’s how the 1918 influenza pandemic spread. It killed more than 50 million people and is the deadliest pandemic in history. (If you ask infectious disease experts what they fear most, without fail they answer: “pandemic influenza.”)

The fictional outbreak was revealed to be a virus engineered in a Swiss lab by a terrorist group. In another grabbed-from-the-headlines twist, the terrorists had inserted deadly genes from the Nipah virus, a rare brain-damaging virus.

more in link: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

More media articles to be found here (some restricted):
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Highlights video (downloaded from FB and uploaded to YouTube):



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Disclaimer: As said in the introduction, some media (like video above) contain political statements about current or previous administrations. These are not my views or statements. It is up to everyone for themselves to decide which political side they wish to choose or which statements they wish to believe.


Full episodes of the event here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Or here through YouTube Search:
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Summarized (fictional):
No vaccine available. Takes 20 months.
150 million deaths in 20 months = 2% of world population.
Mostly same conclusions as first two events regarding coordination, martial law, travel bans, economy crash and added restrictions on (social) media.
Health systems crash.

Thoughts:
It shows that the production of vaccines is no priority for the private sector. Basically it is financially driven, based on “what if the virus changes?”
In this scenario the US president gets severely ill and half of US congress dies. In my belief that is a very political biased add on to the scenario, also looking at the statements in the highlights video. Personally I don’t see any value in this, other than trying to influence US voter opinion.

For who ever believes in predictions. Apparently the blind mystic Baba Varga predicted chemical attacks, mortal illness for President Trump and an assassination attempt on Putin in 2020 :
[link to www.dailymail.co.uk (secure)]

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 06:47 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:32 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Event 4: Project 201 (18 October 2019):

Event page:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms. The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. (More in link above, page has links to other sections of the event top, right and below.)

Full scenario here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Media coverage here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Highlights video:



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Full episodes of the event here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Or here through YouTube Search:
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Summarized (fictional):
No vaccine available in the first year. 10% fatality rate.
Cases increasing from 30.000 to 12 million in 3 months.
Deaths increasing from 2.000 to 1 million in 3 months.
After 18 months, 65 million deaths.
Financial system collapse. Martial law. Social unrest, etc.
Recession bigger than the Great Depression.
Social Media (FB, Twitter) restricted.
No countries able control the spread.
Travel, finance, service, manufacturing, health, insurance hit the hardest.
Economic recovery takes at least a decade, gaining trust back even longer.

Advice on communication from players:
Social media platforms need to be broadcasting instead of being technology platform.
Centralised international communication to counter conspiracy topics.
Collect data to find misinformation and fake news.
Flood good information through trusted channels.
Awareness of false info through governments for political gain.

This summary is more extended, because it is the event that took place most recent and has a coronavirus as subject.

More info on the Johns Hopkins Center, all events and extended external links:

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 06:24 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:32 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Closing notes:

The above events and scenarios may be fictional, but they can serve as a blueprint in case of an actual pandemic situation. It might read as a fiction book or movie, but in fact it is a very scary situation, that in reality may lead to widespread disaster. My basic goal is not to scare anyone or be a disaster tourist, but to make people aware of how fast a local disease can lead to a global pandemic. Either man made or spread through animals.

What struck me most in these events is the following:
Governments talk a lot, but are not ready for events like these.
When push comes to shove, it is mostly each for their own.
Private and public sector interests are (still) miles apart.
Vaccine production is NOT a priority, financially driven.
Governments unable to coop with speed pandemic.
World Health Organisation (WHO) is basically invisible.
WHO is subjective to governments’ political agenda.
Honest, speedy information is not a quality (to say the least.)

And there for sure are much more remarks to make, subjective and objective, about communication, internet, social media, the causes of the current outbreak etc. Everyone has their own opinion on that and is entitled to it. But keep it clean. Like my other threads, I will not tolerate insulting or name calling. Discuss, but in a respectful and mature way.

I myself am left with the feeling that in case such a pandemic will occur, we need to rely on our own circle of influence rather than trusting the governments, but also be aware of false information spread by those who have no other goal than to spread chaos.

My friends, apart from the current situation, we live in challenging times. Mother Nature is angry, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods. Drums of war. People are angry and divided, often not even knowing why or triggered by the immature, subjective political climate (no matter what side of the spectrum.)

But this world is not all bad. Not by far. Just look around you. Your neighbor of so many years is still the same neighbor, whether you like him or not. We can still laugh about silly stuff, play our music, live our lives the way we do. We do have happy times, even though spending to much time online might make you think otherwise.

We need to help those we can help and make them aware and prepare for what might come. If it doesn’t happen, no harm done, right? All the better! There is nothing lost in preparation, but also not in putting people at ease, lending them an ear or a shoulder or whatever help they can use. We all live on this piece of rock together, so we better make the most of it.

So take care of yourself and each other!hf

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 04:45 PM
captain
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78266136
France
01/26/2020 04:42 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Excellent closing notes.
Unfortunately, I live next to the neighbour from hell.
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 04:50 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Excellent closing notes.
Unfortunately, I live next to the neighbour from hell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


Merci mon ami! We will be alright. Stay calm and safe! hf
captain
Arnie

User ID: 78321524
United States
01/26/2020 04:53 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
ty56
AKA Auntie Arnie
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78394469
United States
01/26/2020 04:53 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
historic models will be misleading if this is chimera.

.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76862800
United States
01/26/2020 04:56 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Closing notes:

The above events and scenarios may be fictional, but they can serve as a blueprint in case of an actual pandemic situation. It might read as a fiction book or movie, but in fact it is a very scary situation, that in reality may lead to widespread disaster. My basic goal is not to scare anyone or be a disaster tourist, but to make people aware of how fast a local disease can lead to a global pandemic. Either man made or spread through animals.

What struck me most in these events is the following:
Governments talk a lot, but are not ready for events like these.
When push comes to shove, it is mostly each for their own.
Private and public sector interests are (still) miles apart.
Vaccine production is NOT a priority, financially driven.
Governments unable to coop with speed pandemic.
World Health Organisation (WHO) is basically invisible.
WHO is subjective to governments’ political agenda.
Honest, speedy information is not a quality (to say the least.)

And there for sure are much more remarks to make, subjective and objective, about communication, internet, social media, the causes of the current outbreak etc. Everyone has their own opinion on that and is entitled to it. But keep it clean. Like my other threads, I will not tolerate insulting or name calling. Discuss, but in a respectful and mature way.

I myself am left with the feeling that in case such a pandemic will occur, we need to rely on our own circle of influence rather than trusting the governments, but also be aware of false information spread by those who have no other goal than to spread chaos.

My friends, apart from the current situation, we live in challenging times. Mother Nature is angry, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods. Drums of war. People are angry and divided, often not even knowing why or triggered by the immature, subjective political climate (no matter what side of the spectrum.)

But this world is not all bad. Not by far. Just look around you. Your neighbor of so many years is still the same neighbor, whether you like him or not. We can still laugh about silly stuff, play our music, live our lives the way we do. We do have happy times, even though spending to much time online might make you think otherwise.

We need to help those we can help and make them aware and prepare for what might come. If it doesn’t happen, no harm done, right? All the better! There is nothing lost in preparation, but also not in putting people at ease, lending them an ear or a shoulder or whatever help they can use. We all live on this piece of rock together, so we better make the most of it.

So take care of yourself and each other!hf
 Quoting: InterMezzo


THE GREAT GURU SPEAKS!.........AMEN.
akasuzanne

User ID: 78185358
United States
01/26/2020 04:57 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Thank you so much for analyzing and posting this information!!
akasuzanne

User ID: 78185358
United States
01/26/2020 05:01 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Event 4: Project 201 (18 October 2019):

Event page:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms. The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. (More in link above, page has links to other sections of the event top, right and below.)

Full scenario here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Media coverage here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Highlights video:



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Full episodes of the event here:
[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Or here through YouTube Search:
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Summarized (fictional):
No vaccine available in the first year. 10% fatality rate.
Cases increasing from 30.000 to 12 million in 3 months.
Deaths increasing from 2.000 to 1 million in 3 months.
After 18 months, 65 million deaths.
Financial system collapse. Martial law. Social unrest, etc.
Recession bigger than the Great Depression.
Social Media (FB, Twitter) restricted.
No countries able control the spread.
Travel, finance, service, manufacturing, health, insurance hit the hardest.
Economic recovery takes at least a decade, gaining trust back even longer.

Advice on communication from players:
Social media platforms need to be broadcasting instead of being technology platform.
Centralised international communication to counter conspiracy topics.
Collect data to find misinformation and fake news.
Flood good information through trusted channels.
Awareness of false info through governments for political gain.

This summary is more extended, because it is the event that took place recently.
 Quoting: InterMezzo


I was shocked during the opening when the participants were announced.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77417224
France
01/26/2020 05:02 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Thanks for putting this information together!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78266136
France
01/26/2020 05:04 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Excellent closing notes.
Unfortunately, I live next to the neighbour from hell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


Merci mon ami! We will be alright. Stay calm and safe! hf
 Quoting: InterMezzo


Thanks op, much appreciated. What I am wondering, is if and when the tipping point will come with regards social unrest and panic globally.
Have you got any idea at all, at what time frame, from say the outset of the current situation (if we take the start date as being December 31 st 2019), from what info there is on the information you posted?

I suspect I am asking this to get a feel as to when to start stocking up on items which may be needed, and I dare say a lot of folk out there would like to know the same.
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 05:38 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Excellent closing notes.
Unfortunately, I live next to the neighbour from hell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


Merci mon ami! We will be alright. Stay calm and safe! hf
 Quoting: InterMezzo


Thanks op, much appreciated. What I am wondering, is if and when the tipping point will come with regards social unrest and panic globally.
Have you got any idea at all, at what time frame, from say the outset of the current situation (if we take the start date as being December 31 st 2019), from what info there is on the information you posted?

I suspect I am asking this to get a feel as to when to start stocking up on items which may be needed, and I dare say a lot of folk out there would like to know the same.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


First, let me say that I am not an expert and secondly, that we do not know whether this current outbreak leads to a global pandemic. Your guess is as best as mine.

Having said that, based on the Event 201 time line cases increased to 1 million in 6 weeks in many countries. So we would take 31 December as a start, that would mean we would reach that number around 14 February. Even at at 3% fatality rate that still means 30K death.

There was word that the daily cases of the current virus increase by 35% each day. I made a calculation for that:

Thread: Covid19/2021-22 OMICRON/ VIRUS "IHU" FRANCE:P13310/NEWEST VIRUS: "NEOCOV" HIGH INFECTION RATE+1 IN 3 DIE !?! P13315 (Page 243)

But as said, based on a number that was going around. No factual truth.

If those numbers are true, by the time we reach mid February, there will be travel restrictions and serious shortage of health care. Health care staff will not be able to keep up, also due to the fact there is no vaccine.

People's trust in reliable info will be at a low point, the economy will start to crash in several areas, beginning in low income countries, leading to social unrest etc. So you can imagine that in such case, people will be stocking up between now and 14 February.

But as said, based on the simulation. I believe the coming week or two will be crucial. But it is never a bad idea to be prepared. IF there is a run on stock, you might not be in time.

I don't want to be a doom thinker. Just practical. That is why I keep saying this is based on a simulation. We have yet to see real proof of a pandemic evolving. But it is never bad to prepare now.

There is a preparation thread by Trinity here:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 05:40 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
ty56
 Quoting: Arnie


blwkss
captain
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78266136
France
01/26/2020 05:45 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Excellent closing notes.
Unfortunately, I live next to the neighbour from hell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


Merci mon ami! We will be alright. Stay calm and safe! hf
 Quoting: InterMezzo


Thanks op, much appreciated. What I am wondering, is if and when the tipping point will come with regards social unrest and panic globally.
Have you got any idea at all, at what time frame, from say the outset of the current situation (if we take the start date as being December 31 st 2019), from what info there is on the information you posted?

I suspect I am asking this to get a feel as to when to start stocking up on items which may be needed, and I dare say a lot of folk out there would like to know the same.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78266136


First, let me say that I am not an expert and secondly, that we do not know whether this current outbreak leads to a global pandemic. Your guess is as best as mine.

Having said that, based on the Event 201 time line cases increased to 1 million in 6 weeks in many countries. So we would take 31 December as a start, that would mean we would reach that number around 14 February. Even at at 3% fatality rate that still means 30K death.

There was word that the daily cases of the current virus increase by 35% each day. I made a calculation for that:

Thread: Covid19/2021-22 OMICRON/ VIRUS "IHU" FRANCE:P13310/NEWEST VIRUS: "NEOCOV" HIGH INFECTION RATE+1 IN 3 DIE !?! P13315 (Page 243)

But as said, based on a number that was going around. No factual truth.

If those numbers are true, by the time we reach mid February, there will be travel restrictions and serious shortage of health care. Health care staff will not be able to keep up, also due to the fact there is no vaccine.

People's trust in reliable info will be at a low point, the economy will start to crash in several areas, beginning in low income countries, leading to social unrest etc. So you can imagine that in such case, people will be stocking up between now and 14 February.

But as said, based on the simulation. I believe the coming week or two will be crucial. But it is never a bad idea to be prepared. IF there is a run on stock, you might not be in time.

I don't want to be a doom thinker. Just practical. That is why I keep saying this is based on a simulation. We have yet to see real proof of a pandemic evolving. But it is never bad to prepare now.

There is a preparation thread by Trinity here:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
 Quoting: InterMezzo


A massive massive thankyou for your honesty and time. Much appreciated OP.
I will seriously take everything you have said there onboard.
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 05:45 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
historic models will be misleading if this is chimera.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78394469


I agree. Discussing this in a simulation is also still far from acting in a real situation. When action has to be taken across borders, emotions and domestic agenda come into play and I honestly don't believe that the WHO, with all due respect, can keep a lid on this above domestic priorities.

Next to that, people are still either in the unknown or in a phase of not trusting the info there is. My heart with that goes out to all those health care workers, who really know what is going on and what is true and what not.

So in fact you get emotions from several sides. People and government. That in itself will lead to serious upheaval.
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 05:48 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
I was shocked during the opening when the participants were announced.
 Quoting: akasuzanne


I hear you Suzanne. There are so many conflicting interests and tied hands. Finances will be a big problem as well. Governments alone will not be able to pay for it. And there will be pointing at others.

Add the emotion factor in, vaccines not being available and I honestly think they simply will not get it done.

Stay safe though! hf
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 05:49 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Thanks for putting this information together!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77417224


hf You are most welcome! Let's hope it won't come to this. Stay safe my friend!
captain
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78338041
United Kingdom
01/26/2020 05:57 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes


talks about event 201 in 2019
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75546315
Canada
01/26/2020 05:58 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Joe Biden knew exactly when his NWO buddies would be infecting PatienT Zero to wipe out most of the world's population...

Thread: Did you catch Biden saying "we need to get trump out by the 17th"
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 06:08 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

talks about event 201 in 2019
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78338041


Thanks for sharing this. I have watched a bit of it (will finish later), but I agree with what he says. It seems more than a coincidence that 2 months after the event we might be in a situation like this.

On top of that I thought it suspicious that Event Clade X and Event 201 were so close in follow up (2018, 2019) after 13 years of silence and both about coronaviruses. But that is my own interpretation.

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 06:09 PM
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 06:12 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Joe Biden knew exactly when his NWO buddies would be infecting PatienT Zero to wipe out most of the world's population...

Thread: Did you catch Biden saying "we need to get trump out by the 17th"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75546315


Who knows. All I know is that it is better to trust on your own judgement than that of those in power, which ever side of the political spectrum you might prefer.
captain
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 06:18 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
What also strikes me is how little YouTube views these events have. Must be a millennial effect. Our climate in that regard has changed. Apparently people rather watch a Justin Bieber video than the be informed about possible threats.

I know Greta, mocking Justin Bieber...

howdareyou

But you know what? Here's our response from The Netherlands.

:fygr:

On a serious note, might also be because there hasn't been much news coverage in the mainstream media about it.

Last Edited by InterMezzo on 01/26/2020 06:25 PM
captain
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78388543
United States
01/26/2020 06:24 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
event 201

01/2020 event

get it!
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 06:26 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
event 201

01/2020 event

get it!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78388543


qpim
captain
El Capo

User ID: 76863864
United States
01/26/2020 06:27 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
Introduction

Looking at all the threads and discussions about the current coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, I thought it was interesting to provide some background information regarding simulations that were done between 2001 and 2019, where a pandemic outbreak situation was played out. They were all organized by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (in combination with others.)

In the past two decades there have been 4 simulations:

Dark Winter (22-23 June 2001.)
Atlantic Storm (14 January 2005.)
Clade X (15 May 2018.)
Event 201 (18 October 2019.)


The first three events were simulations of bioterrorist attack. The first two events were about the deliberate spread of smallpox, the third even about a man made coronavirus and the last event was a simulation of an actual outbreak of a coronavirus originating from pigs.

In my follow up posts I will provide more in depth information of each separate event. This information is freely available on the internet, so I will provide links to event pages, youtube videos and (if available) some media coverage. For the Clade X event I could not find a good summary video, so I downloaded it from FB and uploaded it to YouTube.

Some of the videos have (how could it be else) political statements in them about current or previous administrations. These are not my views or statements. It is up to everyone for themselves to decide which political side they wish to choose or which statements they wish to believe.

Bioterrorism or biological warfare is of all ages. In 1346, the bodies of Mongol warriors who had died of plague were thrown over the walls of the besieged Crimean city of Kaffa (now Theodosia). After a protracted siege, during which the Mongol army under Jani Beg was suffering the disease, they catapulted the infected corpses over the city walls to infect the inhabitants. It has been speculated that this operation may have been responsible for the arrival of the Black Death in Europe. (source Wikipedia.)

For those who want more information on what a pandemic actually is:
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Please keep in mind that for a virus outbreak to be deemed pandemic, time goes by. Information trickling out of China on the current outbreak is insufficient and most likely not correct (in my opinion.) We can argue and ridicule each other about it being a global outbreak or not, but that has no use at this point. Based on the exponential growth in the next 4-6 weeks, this discussion has much more value then. Keep your ears and eyes open and do not believe everything you hear or see. Do help each other getting informed and be prepared just in case.

In that respect this thread is also about awareness.

Because I myself want my family, friends and loved ones to be safe and prepared. I do not wish anyone ill or dead. Not in China, not in the rest of the world. If we can stick together and teach and help the uninformed, together we could save lives, without having to rely on what is fed to us by agenda driven governments or institutions. Lives, of ourselves and others.
 Quoting: InterMezzo


glassesoff
Made Member
MsMc
For the Children

User ID: 78349980
United Kingdom
01/26/2020 06:49 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
bump

I think we will wake up to a bit of bother about all this in the Morning;
to say the least.

Gods Speed and Wings to all of us.

I think this maybe a "Fandango Rangers" Moment for us all Xx
InterMezzo  (OP)

User ID: 45716769
Netherlands
01/26/2020 06:53 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes
bump

I think we will wake up to a bit of bother about all this in the Morning;
to say the least.

Gods Speed and Wings to all of us.

I think this maybe a "Fandango Rangers" Moment for us all Xx
 Quoting: MsMc


You might be right hon. hugs Things are really developing fast and it does show similarities.

But we will always be alright. Believe in that! hf
captain





GLP