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| 02:27 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,220 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 144,789 | |
| Pageviews Today: 235,364 | Threads Today: 79 | Posts Today: 1,416 |
| 02:27 AM | ||
Coronavirus Lancet Report: 15% Mortality 83% Infection 8-14 Day Incubation-SYMPTOMS Update P3 | |
| Lily User ID: 78059415  United States01/26/2020 05:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So we have a Texas A&M student that came back from wuhan, not feeling well, hob nobbed around College Station, Texas and went to class for four days and decided on the 5th day he was sick and turned himself in to Baylor Scott and White hospital. right, so he could have spread it all over that area. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78277784 Yes. In a nutshell. |
Failure To Communicate
 User ID: 76788611 United States01/26/2020 05:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76641565 United States01/26/2020 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So we have a Texas A&M student that came back from wuhan, not feeling well, hob nobbed around College Station, Texas and went to class for four days and decided on the 5th day he was sick and turned himself in to Baylor Scott and White hospital. right, so he could have spread it all over that area. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78277784 [link to www.fox4news.com (secure)] Thanks for the post. I bet there's a CDC jet on it's way there right now, if it hasn't already landed. He was admitted to ER last wednesday, they still don't know the results of his test |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76792534 United States01/26/2020 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Wharf Rat
User ID: 77537178 United States01/26/2020 05:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | and all but 2 were 61 years or older. of those, half were over 80 years old. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76927361 Now there's a 9 month old baby confirmed to have it. [link to www.cnn.com (secure)] ~Wharf Rat |
| Pabamus V
User ID: 78136695 01/26/2020 05:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78342051  Canada01/26/2020 06:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "the analysis shows that the attack rate is as high as 83%" Attack rate? Interesting choice of words. Would that be the same as R0? They previously said that the R0 in high density areas could be as high as 3.8 Which is already damn high. If attack rate is the same as R0 then this is unbelievably bad. |
| JustBobTX
User ID: 75840006 United States01/26/2020 06:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "the analysis shows that the attack rate is as high as 83%" Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78342051 Attack rate? Interesting choice of words. Would that be the same as R0? They previously said that the R0 in high density areas could be as high as 3.8 Which is already damn high. If attack rate is the same as R0 then this is unbelievably bad. My friends call me Bob. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77887629 Canada01/26/2020 06:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | .... the new coronavirus’s incubation period was about 10 to 14 days, and that the period is contagious. “There have been mild cases where observation has shown that the patients were contagious during the incubation period. The incubation period is around 10 days,” he said. “The shortest time before the disease’s onset was one day. The longest was 14 days. This is very different from SARS.” [link to www.nytimes.com (secure)] |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77977795  Spain01/26/2020 06:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76288549 United States01/26/2020 06:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | n = 41 exposed, 6 deaths. 15% is NOT the mortality rate.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78176690 First of all, up till now we know 2000 have been infected and around 60 have died (official). However, many agree the number infected is vastly underestimated, something like 5% of the total... ie. 2000 x 20 = 40,000,,, So the mortality rate is 60 per 40,000,,,, or 15,000 per million... or 0.15%. You're talking about the number infected being 40,000. BUT, of those infected, we don't know yet how many of those will recover or how many of those will die from the infection. Here is what we know so far: - Confirmed cases: At least 2,070 in China, 37 abroad - Deaths: 56 - Cured: 49 [link to www.cgtn.com (secure)] If we go by THAT information, out of a total of 105 people who've either recovered or died from the illness, 56 have died. That tells me that over 53% of the infections have resulted in death! Expect many more of those currently infected to perish. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78342129 United States01/26/2020 07:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| everLearner
User ID: 74886023 United States01/26/2020 07:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | My take is the truth is somewhere between Chinese gov reports and these Taiwanese reports. Both are probably skewed. China gov obviously cannot be trusted. Could have known about this outbreak long before going public. I've been seeing articles about Chinese officials warning they expect it to worsen. Such statements give them room to gradually increment the severity of their announcements. They've probably padded the numbers on the low side. On the other hand, Taiwanese press know that any kind of bad news for China equals click-bait, for obvious reasons. Just like fear porn equals click-bait on here. All indications are this coronavirus is quite damn serious, but it's good to exercise a measure of skepticism. We don't really know how long the virus has been spreading, but we might learn more about its degree of virulence over this and next week. I won't make assumptions purely based on Taiwan nor China news. Last Edited by everLearner on 01/26/2020 07:37 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76377772 Canada01/26/2020 07:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76377772 Canada01/26/2020 07:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78395225  Ireland01/26/2020 07:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  Thread: Coronavirus Ground Zero = Umbrella Corporation from Resident Evil. Look at the logos. Racoon City Thread: HO LEE SHIT! It IS happening! Coronavirus! Ground Zero! Thread: Nothing to see here folks! US Patent for Coronavirus Patent (Patent # 10,130,701) Thread: So Wuhan translates to Raccoon City in English |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78395278 United States01/26/2020 07:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to broward.ghost.io (secure)] To maximize mobility, the weapon should minimize mortality at first. That means it will look deceptively innocuous. But mortality will drastically rise at the end of its cycle. If the average virologist is looking for a typical pattern, they might be baffled by its behavior. Right now, the Wu Flu's rate is reported as 3%, 15% or 55% mortality rate, depending on how its measured and who is measuring it. If this is a chimeric virus, I'd expect the final rate to be closer to 55% than 3%. |
| dodger007
User ID: 77690112 United States01/26/2020 08:11 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The Microsoft tycoon warned the world was at risk from super-pathogens spreading quickly across our planet — and that we should prepare for this as we would for war. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78390810 [link to www.thesun.co.uk (secure)] [link to godlike.com (secure)] [link to www.the-scientist.com (secure)] Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78384456 Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate The creation of a chimeric SARS-like virus has scientists discussing the risks of gain-of-function research. Nov 16, 2015 JEF AKST MERS coronavirus FLICKR, NIAID Ralph Baric, an infectious-disease researcher at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, last week (November 9) published a study on his team’s efforts to engineer a virus with the surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus, found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone of to one that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice. The hybrid virus could infect human airway cells and caused disease in mice, according to the team’s results, which were published in Nature Medicine. The results demonstrate the ability of the SHC014 surface protein to bind and infect human cells, validating concerns that this virus—or other coronaviruses found in bat species—may be capable of making the leap to people without first evolving in an intermediate host, Nature reported. They also reignite a debate about whether that information justifies the risk of such work, known as gain-of-function research. “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, told Nature. In October 2013, the US government put a stop to all federal funding for gain-of-function studies, with particular concern rising about influenza, SARS, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). “NIH [National Institutes of Health] has funded such studies because they help define the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, enable the assessment of the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, and inform public health and preparedness efforts,” NIH Director Francis Collins said in a statement at the time. “These studies, however, also entail biosafety and biosecurity risks, which need to be understood better.” Baric’s study on the SHC014-chimeric coronavirus began before the moratorium was announced, and the NIH allowed it to proceed during a review process, which eventually led to the conclusion that the work did not fall under the new restrictions, Baric told Nature. But some researchers, like Wain-Hobson, disagree with that decision. The debate comes down to how informative the results are. “The only impact of this work is the creation, in a lab, of a new, non-natural risk,” Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and biodefence expert at Rutgers University, told Nature. But Baric and others argued the study’s importance. “[The results] move this virus from a candidate emerging pathogen to a clear and present danger,” Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, which samples viruses from animals and people in emerging-diseases hotspots across the globe, told Nature. WOW  You can count on America to do the right thing after exhausting every other alternative." Winston Churchill |
| Torchie
User ID: 77354011 United States01/26/2020 08:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | n = 41 exposed, 6 deaths. 15% is NOT the mortality rate.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78176690 First of all, up till now we know 2000 have been infected and around 60 have died (official). However, many agree the number infected is vastly underestimated, something like 5% of the total... ie. 2000 x 20 = 40,000,,, So the mortality rate is 60 per 40,000,,,, or 15,000 per million... or 0.15%.  untying the shoelaces of the internet one post at a time love tastes best from teal buckets go GIT in your STALL! a Spark does not fall far from the Torchie |
| Torchie
User ID: 77354011 United States01/26/2020 08:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So we have a Texas A&M student that came back from wuhan, not feeling well, hob nobbed around College Station, Texas and went to class for four days and decided on the 5th day he was sick and turned himself in to Baylor Scott and White hospital. right, so he could have spread it all over that area. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78277784 Yes. In a nutshell. either many die or none. time tells untying the shoelaces of the internet one post at a time love tastes best from teal buckets go GIT in your STALL! a Spark does not fall far from the Torchie |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76377772 Canada01/26/2020 08:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | n = 41 exposed, 6 deaths. 15% is NOT the mortality rate.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78176690 First of all, up till now we know 2000 have been infected and around 60 have died (official). However, many agree the number infected is vastly underestimated, something like 5% of the total... ie. 2000 x 20 = 40,000,,, So the mortality rate is 60 per 40,000,,,, or 15,000 per million... or 0.15%. :commoncorn: they are also lying about how many people are dead. the government ordered all funerals canceled, and bodies to be immediately cremated. You can see leaked videos from hospitals in China with bodies being piling up in hallways next too sick people waiting too see a doctor. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 72510977 United States01/26/2020 08:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How the numbers work: if 9 get better and 11 die, then you only worry about the number of sick people for purposes of contagion. 9:11, or 11/20 die. That would be 55% mortality rate (of those cured or dead, which means, those that got over it, one way or the other). Actual Given Numbers in "reality" (what we're *told*): So far, it's been a bit all over the place, but...one source I'm seeing is 52 recovered, 55 dead. I know this isn't the be all end all and may not be accurate. There may be many many more deaths that haven't been counted, and there may also be many more people that caught it that refuse to seek treatment. But, going by that, it's 55/107, which is in reality 51.4% mortality rate. If you have different numbers, then only add up "cured" ("C") + dead ("D"), and then taken the D/C+D. That will be the real mortality rate. It may change slightly (or greatly) as the affected populations change (might be different for various races, age groups, genders, regions due to environmental variants, etc). |
| Rosicrucian1 User ID: 78248401 Canada01/26/2020 08:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Mike Adams doesn't dick around with this stuff...that's exactly why I'm posting this. If he's freaked, then I'm a tad concerned myself. I've been in and around emergency management for 30 years. I'm still waiting for more confirmation from my own sources. Quoting: WEDGE PLISSKEN 1st set of Risk Factors Are In From Lancet 10 minute video, but the main info is in the first half: 83% X 15% = 12.45 this means if you come in contact with an infected person you are more than 10% likely to die. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 72510977 United States01/26/2020 08:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How the numbers work: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72510977 if 9 get better and 11 die, then you only worry about the number of sick people for purposes of contagion. 9:11, or 11/20 die. That would be 55% mortality rate (of those cured or dead, which means, those that got over it, one way or the other). Actual Given Numbers in "reality" (what we're *told*): So far, it's been a bit all over the place, but...one source I'm seeing is 52 recovered, 55 dead. I know this isn't the be all end all and may not be accurate. There may be many many more deaths that haven't been counted, and there may also be many more people that caught it that refuse to seek treatment. But, going by that, it's 55/107, which is in reality 51.4% mortality rate. If you have different numbers, then only add up "cured" ("C") + dead ("D"), and then taken the D/(C+D). That will be the real mortality rate. It may change slightly (or greatly) as the affected populations change (might be different for various races, age groups, genders, regions due to environmental variants, etc). I can't edit, but basically that. Forgot brackets. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76799292 United States01/26/2020 08:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Rosicrucian1 User ID: 78248401 Canada01/26/2020 08:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 72619462 United States01/26/2020 08:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BREAKING: Coronavirus Hits 15% Fatality Rate, 83% Infection Rate for Those Exposed; Lancet Publishes Early Study That Points to Alarming Consequences for Humanity Quoting: WEDGE PLISSKEN Saturday, January 25, 2020 by: Mike Adams [link to www.naturalnews.com (secure)] BREAKING: The U.S. news media is currently running about one to two days behind the Chinese media in covering the bombshell revelations surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. Natural News has Chinese-speaking investigators on the ground in Taiwan, and they’re scanning the Chinese media for the most important announcements. Earlier today, the Taiwan media began reporting on a new mainland Chinese study that specifically looked at the individuals involved in this Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. We have a partial translation and link below. According to this news, which is widely circulating in the Taiwan press and is based on a study published in The Lancet, the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%. These numbers are virtually unheard of in the world of microbiology and infectious disease transmission. It means that 15 out of every 100 infected people will die. It also means that 83 out of 100 exposed people will become infected and able to transmit the disease to others. So for every 100 people who are exposed, around 12 will die (15% of 83). The only criticism of this study is that its sample size was relatively small, given that it’s still very early in the outbreak of this disease. The study looked at 41 cases of individuals who were exposed. If the infection rate stands at 83%, this pandemic will be impossible to contain Also note the more detailed list of symptoms offered by The Lancet: Fever: 98% Cough: 76% Fatigue: 44% Sputum production: 28% Headache: 8% Haemoptysis: 5% (coughing up BLOOD) Diarrhea: 3% Also note it took eight days to develop dyspnoea, or difficulty breathing. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 72619462 United States01/26/2020 08:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OMFG!! YOUR A RETRAD!! HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA!!!! |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78395278 United States01/26/2020 09:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the CDC/WHO models are flawed. they're averaging the two states of the virus. as an example: mobility phase, suppose it has R0 of 10 and mortality of 1%. mortality phase, suppose it has R0 of 1 and mortality of 60%. their models can't account for the binary nature, that's why the numbers are all over the place. it depends on the current cluster, when it was measured, etc. and needs to be differentiated. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 3941884 United States01/26/2020 09:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BREAKING: Coronavirus Hits 15% Fatality Rate, 83% Infection Rate for Those Exposed; Lancet Publishes Early Study That Points to Alarming Consequences for Humanity Quoting: WEDGE PLISSKEN Saturday, January 25, 2020 by: Mike Adams [link to www.naturalnews.com (secure)] BREAKING: The U.S. news media is currently running about one to two days behind the Chinese media in covering the bombshell revelations surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. Natural News has Chinese-speaking investigators on the ground in Taiwan, and they’re scanning the Chinese media for the most important announcements. Earlier today, the Taiwan media began reporting on a new mainland Chinese study that specifically looked at the individuals involved in this Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. We have a partial translation and link below. According to this news, which is widely circulating in the Taiwan press and is based on a study published in The Lancet, the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%. These numbers are virtually unheard of in the world of microbiology and infectious disease transmission. It means that 15 out of every 100 infected people will die. It also means that 83 out of 100 exposed people will become infected and able to transmit the disease to others. So for every 100 people who are exposed, around 12 will die (15% of 83). The only criticism of this study is that its sample size was relatively small, given that it’s still very early in the outbreak of this disease. The study looked at 41 cases of individuals who were exposed. If the infection rate stands at 83%, this pandemic will be impossible to contain Also note the more detailed list of symptoms offered by The Lancet: Fever: 98% Cough: 76% Fatigue: 44% Sputum production: 28% Headache: 8% Haemoptysis: 5% (coughing up BLOOD) Diarrhea: 3% Also note it took eight days to develop dyspnoea, or difficulty breathing. Not being a spoil sport, but as a healthy guy in mid 30s I had the symptoms over the new year, for about 3-4 days. It was no big deal, I've had worse hangovers that this. Go to bed with a water bottle and sweat it out, the cough up the debris fir the next few weeks... What I'm saying is, can the symptoms appear just like a flu with chest infection for some people? Because that's not a big deal for some people. Only for, elderly and babies. If it’s anything like the Spanish flu the healthiest people with the best immune systems were who died as their body went into over drive to kill the virus and well... couldn’t and the white blood cell over production killed their lungs. It’s why NYC was left with 30,000 orphans after it hit in the fall and why the military was hit so incredibly hard. In Massachusetts army base they were losing over 100 soldiers per day where they died sometimes 24 hours after symptoms appeared... wasn’t the flu that killed them persay, but their body’s reaction to try and defeat something it didn’t know how to |
Mortality rate for Chinese population, already a people under stress and deficient.
