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Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions

 
Relik
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01/25/2020 07:06 AM
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Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
It's unfortunate that people aren't understanding that the fatality rate is very high at 3%. That doesn't sound like much?

A) The regular seasonal flu in December infected 13 million in the US and killed 6,600. On a numbers basis, that sounds much worse than this coronavirus they are scaring us with, right? 1 person died out of every 1,969 people infected.

B) With this coronavirus, 1 out of every 33 people infected are dying. See the problem? If the same 13 million people in the US got this virus in a month, 390,000 would die.

C) Next month another 10 million may get it, another 330,000 dead. The month after that it might mutate and EVERYONE once again is subject to a 3% chance of death if they get it.

D) It is very likely and only a matter of time that this number of people may contract the virus in the US. With a current estimated Ro of 3.8 - 4.0, it is twice as infectious as the seasonal flu. Again, do I need to remind everyone that the seasonal flu infected 13 million people in December alone?

E) Go ahead and try to locate a simple bare minimum N95 mask right now. I checked online at Home Depot, Lowe's, Wal-Mart and others and every single store has limited or no stock. They are not purchasable via their online sites. I ended up buying some at Amazon for early February delivery. No one in the US has even died yet and there are already no masks available!

F) According to a Youtube video I watched, they say Chinese drop shippers in the US have purchased massive numbers of N95 masks and are sending them back to China to make a profit.



G) I made a spreadsheet after using the official Chinese data of 17 cumulative deaths on Jan 22 and 25 cumulative deaths on Jan 23. I made this on January 23rd.

On January 24th, China announced 41 cumulative deaths. Do you see that this is even higher than my predictive function below indicated (37)? This predictive function increases at a very simple exponential rate - every day take the cumulative people that have died and over the next 24 hours 1/2 again as many people will die. The scary thing is this has proven true so far.

1st column "Date" - Numbers taken late evening Eastern time.
2nd column "Cumulative worldwide deaths"
3rd column "Deaths over next 24 hr period"
4th column "Official count when available" - Post will be updated

Jan 22 - 17 - 8 - 17 official
Jan 23 - 25 - 12 - 25 official
Jan 24 - 37 - 18 - 41 official
Jan 25 - 55 - 27 - 56 official
Jan 26 - 82 - 41 - 80 official
Jan 27 - 123 - 61 - 106 official (new confirmed cases still skyrocketing)
Jan 28 - 184 - 92
Jan 29 - 276 - 138
Jan 30 - 414 - 207
Jan 31 - 621 - 310
Feb 1 - 931 - 465
Feb 2 - 1,396 - 698
Feb 3 - 2,094 - 1,047
Feb 4 - 3,141 - 1,570
Feb 5 - 4,711 - 2,355
Feb 6 - 7,066 - 3,533
Feb 7 - 10,599 - 5,299
Feb 8 - 15,898 - 7,949
Feb 9 - 23,847 - 11,923
Feb 10 - 35,770 - 17,885
Feb 11 - 53,655 - 26,827
Feb 12 - 80,482 - 40,241
Feb 13 - 120,723 - 60,361
Feb 14 - 181,084 - 90,542
Feb 15 - 271,626 - 135,813
Feb 16 - 407,439 - 203,719

I'm not going to show you further data because I predict the exponential function will slow down at this point. I also don't want to predict that tens of millions of people may die.

If you don't believe me, save this post and come back to it in a few days. If on January 27th China has reported more than 123 deaths maybe you will start to grasp the situation. You need to be warned though that China might start to really manipulate the numbers when the deaths start getting high. For all we know they are already grossly underreported.

This is my first post here. Please vote/pin and discuss.

Update : Beginning Jan 25th I will provide archived copies of this page, hopefully between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. [link to multimedia.scmp.com (secure)]

Apparently I can't link to "archive DOT is" links here so I can't provide my proof of the official number. If anyone has a suggestion to get around this, let me know.

Last Edited by Relik on 01/27/2020 09:42 PM
Interested_1

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01/25/2020 07:29 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not.

Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s.
Take the red pill now...later it will come as a suppository.
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 07:31 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Maybe the sun it's cold spots are tiny and warm elsewhere
...
Relik  (OP)

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01/25/2020 08:13 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not.

Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s.
 Quoting: Interested_1

I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere.

Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out.

Soap & disinfectants are also critically important.
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 08:19 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
there are plenty on amazon and the internet for the usual price.
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01/25/2020 08:22 AM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not.

Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s.
 Quoting: Interested_1

I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere.

Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out.

Soap & disinfectants are also critically important.
 Quoting: Relik


Can’t hurt to save and revisit!

I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared.
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01/25/2020 08:23 AM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not.

Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s.
 Quoting: Interested_1

I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere.

Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out.

Soap & disinfectants are also critically important.
 Quoting: Relik


Can’t hurt to save and revisit!

I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared.
 Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST


Better to be safe then sorrry....
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Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 08:30 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
there are plenty on amazon and the internet for the usual price.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78338186


Share links please in u can. I searched Amazon and I see all makes that are like $10+ and up
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 08:31 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
If every person infects around 4 other persons then this bug will completely overwhelm most countries. There just isn't any way to deal with so many sick people.

The official number of 1300 infected is estimated to be 5% of the total.

You can't just build hospitals that fast.
Relik  (OP)

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01/25/2020 08:38 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
there are plenty on amazon and the internet for the usual price.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78338186


Not 3M and not available now. 3M 8210 20 pack. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

Current price $25.71, arriving Jan 29 - 30 (Price 7 days ago $14.75) EDIT 1hr later: NOW $27.00

Usual price $17.83 sold by Amazon, but not in stock until March 10th.

3M 8511's. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

Purchased yesterday for $19.99 delivery February 5th. (Price 7 days ago $13.28)

Today's price is $23.99 arrives Feb 14 - March 9... EDIT 1hr later: NOW $28.45 is the cheapest!

Let's check camelcamelcamel shall we?

[link to camelcamelcamel.com (secure)]

Unclick Amazon on the chart since they aren't in stock until March. Check 3rd party new. See the graph spiking up to levels never seen before?

I wish we could inline pics, but this will have to do: [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 09:42 AM
Relik  (OP)

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01/25/2020 09:05 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared.
 Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST

I wish I had ordered 7 days ago. Prices are up 50%.

For those interested, one of the better deals is this:

[link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

8210Plus for $1.36 ea in a 20 pack, in stock. $27.20

EDIT 1hr later: $44.96 is now the cheapest.

Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 10:00 AM
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 09:33 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Why you really need to pay attention:

It's a FALSE FLAG

to force VACCINE and

to scare people away from CASH.

Financial Reset coming.

Look in to XRP.
Interested_1

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01/25/2020 11:09 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Why you really need to pay attention:

It's a FALSE FLAG

to force VACCINE and

to scare people away from CASH.

Financial Reset coming.

Look in to XRP.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78380631


Yep. You're going to be damned if you do or damned if you don't regarding vax.

I, too, thought about cash as I was out buying some dog shampoo this a.m.--people will refuse to use it.

Then, one of the other threads brought up the Event201 last Oct...this is one of the videos:



[link to youtu.be (secure)]

There are other videos, too.
Take the red pill now...later it will come as a suppository.
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01/25/2020 06:13 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
We’re at 41 already...
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01/25/2020 06:15 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
bump
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01/25/2020 06:17 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Pin request.
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Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 06:26 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
If every person infects around 4 other persons then this bug will completely overwhelm most countries. There just isn't any way to deal with so many sick people.

The official number of 1300 infected is estimated to be 5% of the total.

You can't just build hospitals that fast.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78032786


And think about THIS...

Even IF this virus did NOT actually kill...but instead made you very ill for a month or so..
So that you were pretty much bedridden and moaning..

EVERYTHING WOULD GRIND TO A HALT...

EVERYTHING.

BANKS

POWER PLANTS

NUCLEAR REACTORS

HOSPITALS

SHOPS

AGRICULTURE

TRUCKS

LAW ENFORECEMENT

FURE BRIGADES


FUCKING EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN.

NO ONE TO FIGHT FIRES...STOP LOOTING..KILLINGS...BURNINGS...ACCIDENTS...EXOSIONS...

NOTHING WORKING.

EVERYONE TOO SICK TO MOVE.

ITS LIKE AN EMP...ONLY FAR FAR FAR FAR WORSE.

IS ANYONE COMPREHENDING YET JUST WHAT KIND OF DOOM HAS DECENDED ON THE PLANET YET??
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 06:27 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
kramcool

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01/25/2020 06:29 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
bump
“Auschwitz begins wherever someone looks at a slaughterhouse and thinks,they’re only animals.”
~Theodor W. Adorno
“We have enslaved the rest of the animal creation, and have treated our distant cousins in fur and feathers so badly that beyond doubt, if they were able to formulate a religion, they would depict the Devil in human form.” ~ William Ralph Inge
"If people want to be real meat eaters, I'd love to see people eat raw flesh from the bone, down to the bone with nothing left but the bones, day after day after day." ~ Gary Yourofsky
Earthlings (The Movie) AKA "The vegan maker"! Do you have the balls to watch it?!?!
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
"For as long as men massacre animals, they will kill each other. Indeed, he who sows the seed of murder and pain cannot reap joy and love." ~Pythagoras (6th century BC)
"Holy crap, what have we done?" `David Coles
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Gary Yourofsky, Best Speech You Will Ever Hear!
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
The great debate, "Should animals be taken off the menu?
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Because your FAT ASS eats meat and dairy! Are you sick yet? On meds?
[link to www.medicinenet.com (secure)]
The sun will nova in 2046...... The Diehold Foundation.... Doug Vogt
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
"I would save/rescue/fight for/defend, a non-human animal before I would a human animal!" ~ Kram Cool
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01/25/2020 06:35 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
1st column "Date" - Numbers taken late evening Eastern time.
2nd column "Cumulative worldwide deaths"
3rd column "Deaths over next 24 hr period"
4th column "Official count when available" - Post will be updated

Jan 22 - 17 - 8 - 17 official
Jan 23 - 25 - 12 - 25 official
Jan 24 - 37 - 18 - 41 official
Jan 25 - 55 - 27
Jan 26 - 82 - 41
Jan 27 - 123 - 61
Jan 28 - 184 - 92
Jan 29 - 276 - 138
Jan 30 - 414 - 207
Jan 31 - 621 - 310
Feb 1 - 931 - 465
Feb 2 - 1,396 - 698
Feb 3 - 2,094 - 1,047
Feb 4 - 3,141 - 1,570
Feb 5 - 4,711 - 2,355
Feb 6 - 7,066 - 3,533
Feb 7 - 10,599 - 5,299
Feb 8 - 15,898 - 7,949
Feb 9 - 23,847 - 11,923
Feb 10 - 35,770 - 17,885
Feb 11 - 53,655 - 26,827
Feb 12 - 80,482 - 40,241
Feb 13 - 120,723 - 60,361
Feb 14 - 181,084 - 90,542
Feb 15 - 271,626 - 135,813
Feb 16 - 407,439 - 203,719




As of a few hours ago:


54 confirmed

Pretty close OP
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Relik  (OP)

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01/25/2020 07:04 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
As of a few hours ago:

54 confirmed

Pretty close OP
 Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST

Eerie, right? I generally have been collecting numbers around 8-10 PM Eastern to be consistent, so I'll update my first post with whatever number is current around that time.

I was just coming here to post this:

The number of confirmed deaths from a viral outbreak in China has risen to 54, with authorities in hard-hit Hubei province on Sunday reporting 13 more fatalities and 323 new cases.

[link to news.yahoo.com (secure)]

EDIT: I should also note that you need to be careful on Amazon. I have recently noted a number of SCAM sellers listing attractive pricing. These scammers are collecting your information!

Example: 180 3M 8511 respirators : $49.99 + $11.99 shipping. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

Seller has 88% negative reviews in the past 30 days and canceling all orders : [link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 07:10 PM
Relik  (OP)

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01/25/2020 08:06 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
This is the time when I collect the official number for my spreadsheet. 8 PM EST


South China Morning Post : The number of virus infections in mainland China now stands at 1,785 and the death toll at 55.

[link to www.scmp.com (secure)]

The article was posted 12 hours ago but updated within the past hour to 55 deaths. It shows 56 in a graphic.
Anonymous Coward
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01/25/2020 08:55 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not.

Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s.
 Quoting: Interested_1

I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere.

Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out.

Soap & disinfectants are also critically important.
 Quoting: Relik


My local Walmart had a lot of masks available today. I had no idea what brand/type to get, but bought the 3M N95 in the two-pack (there were only a couple of those left). I just bought those over other cheaper ones because they looked more comfortable.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/25/2020 11:46 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
I can't speak for every Walmart, Home Depot, etc but anyone who waits even 5-7 days from now before buying some masks will be very disappointed. IF they are available it will cost you twice as much as they are now. Amazon prices for masks have already gone up twice what they were a week ago, not to mention shipping at a later date as well.

By the time it's apparent to even 5% of the population that this is a crisis, it will be too late to prepare.
Badnickname

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01/26/2020 05:52 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Nice work on the chart. Thanks for sharing.

I am a bit skeptical though. There are so many videos of dead people in hospital hallways in Wuhan, and so many videos of people falling to their face dying in public, that it is absolutely impossible the official numbers are true.

So, knowing this, the CCP might is probably releasing a pre-approved series of numbers to the public. So it's not just about the number of dead, but also the progression. It could be far worse than this calculation also.

We are living in interesting times.
The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel a man to unfold his powers.
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01/26/2020 06:02 PM

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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
78 DEATHS
TRUMPS FAULT
Relik  (OP)

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01/26/2020 06:16 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
78 DEATHS
 Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST

Thanks for the report. I use this source here which is official : [link to multimedia.scmp.com (secure)]

It's reporting 80 deaths. I take the number from there in 2-3 hours, so my prediction of 82 by then is .... ominous.

This is all math.
John_the_Baptist_

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01/26/2020 06:35 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
78 DEATHS
 Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST

Thanks for the report. I use this source here which is official : [link to multimedia.scmp.com (secure)]

It's reporting 80 deaths. I take the number from there in 2-3 hours, so my prediction of 82 by then is .... ominous.

This is all math.
 Quoting: Relik


Thanks for that link, I posted it to my Facebook where lots of people who aren't paying attention tend to congregate ;)
"This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a gasp."

Stephen King, Under the Dome
Relik  (OP)

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01/26/2020 11:19 PM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Main post updated.

With a mathematical formula this accurate predicting future deaths, I can't get a pin? Do I need to say I got these numbers beamed to my brain by an extraterrestrial?
wtf

I cannot manipulate the data in my table as it's calculated very simply:
f(1) = 17 = Jan 22
f(n) = f(n-1) + floor( f(n-1) * 0.5 )
The math of any row can be checked using that formula.
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 02:37 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 02:39 AM
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Re: Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions
Too many pined threads on the topic right now I think. We will keep it bumped and it might get pined tomorrow.





GLP