Why you need to pay attention to the coronavirus - analysis & numerical predictions | |
Interested_1
User ID: 77128962 United States 01/25/2020 07:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not. Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s. Take the red pill now...later it will come as a suppository. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78385977 Netherlands 01/25/2020 07:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 08:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not. Quoting: Interested_1 Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s. I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere. Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out. Soap & disinfectants are also critically important. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78338186 United States 01/25/2020 08:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 08:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not. Quoting: Interested_1 Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s. I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere. Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out. Soap & disinfectants are also critically important. Can’t hurt to save and revisit! I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared. TRUMPS FAULT |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 08:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not. Quoting: Interested_1 Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s. I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere. Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out. Soap & disinfectants are also critically important. Can’t hurt to save and revisit! I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared. Better to be safe then sorrry.... TRUMPS FAULT |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 72121849 United States 01/25/2020 08:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78032786 Finland 01/25/2020 08:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If every person infects around 4 other persons then this bug will completely overwhelm most countries. There just isn't any way to deal with so many sick people. The official number of 1300 infected is estimated to be 5% of the total. You can't just build hospitals that fast. |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 08:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not 3M and not available now. 3M 8210 20 pack. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)] Current price $25.71, arriving Jan 29 - 30 (Price 7 days ago $14.75) EDIT 1hr later: NOW $27.00 Usual price $17.83 sold by Amazon, but not in stock until March 10th. 3M 8511's. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)] Purchased yesterday for $19.99 delivery February 5th. (Price 7 days ago $13.28) Today's price is $23.99 arrives Feb 14 - March 9... EDIT 1hr later: NOW $28.45 is the cheapest! Let's check camelcamelcamel shall we? [link to camelcamelcamel.com (secure)] Unclick Amazon on the chart since they aren't in stock until March. Check 3rd party new. See the graph spiking up to levels never seen before? I wish we could inline pics, but this will have to do: [link to i.imgur.com (secure)] Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 09:42 AM |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 09:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I put up a post earlier in the week stating the N95 masks were disappearing quickly.... no one cared. Quoting: AR 15-SPECIALIST I wish I had ordered 7 days ago. Prices are up 50%. For those interested, one of the better deals is this: [link to www.amazon.com (secure)] 8210Plus for $1.36 ea in a 20 pack, in stock. $27.20 EDIT 1hr later: $44.96 is now the cheapest. Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 10:00 AM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78380631 United States 01/25/2020 09:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Interested_1
User ID: 77128962 United States 01/25/2020 11:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why you really need to pay attention: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78380631 It's a FALSE FLAG to force VACCINE and to scare people away from CASH. Financial Reset coming. Look in to XRP. Yep. You're going to be damned if you do or damned if you don't regarding vax. I, too, thought about cash as I was out buying some dog shampoo this a.m.--people will refuse to use it. Then, one of the other threads brought up the Event201 last Oct...this is one of the videos: [link to youtu.be (secure)] There are other videos, too. Take the red pill now...later it will come as a suppository. |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 06:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 06:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 06:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78388382 Australia 01/25/2020 06:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If every person infects around 4 other persons then this bug will completely overwhelm most countries. There just isn't any way to deal with so many sick people. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78032786 The official number of 1300 infected is estimated to be 5% of the total. You can't just build hospitals that fast. And think about THIS... Even IF this virus did NOT actually kill...but instead made you very ill for a month or so.. So that you were pretty much bedridden and moaning.. EVERYTHING WOULD GRIND TO A HALT... EVERYTHING. BANKS POWER PLANTS NUCLEAR REACTORS HOSPITALS SHOPS AGRICULTURE TRUCKS LAW ENFORECEMENT FURE BRIGADES FUCKING EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN. NO ONE TO FIGHT FIRES...STOP LOOTING..KILLINGS...BURNINGS...ACCIDENTS...EXOSIONS... NOTHING WORKING. EVERYONE TOO SICK TO MOVE. ITS LIKE AN EMP...ONLY FAR FAR FAR FAR WORSE. IS ANYONE COMPREHENDING YET JUST WHAT KIND OF DOOM HAS DECENDED ON THE PLANET YET?? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78342129 United States 01/25/2020 06:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
kramcool
User ID: 75668248 United States 01/25/2020 06:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | “Auschwitz begins wherever someone looks at a slaughterhouse and thinks,they’re only animals.” ~Theodor W. Adorno “We have enslaved the rest of the animal creation, and have treated our distant cousins in fur and feathers so badly that beyond doubt, if they were able to formulate a religion, they would depict the Devil in human form.” ~ William Ralph Inge "If people want to be real meat eaters, I'd love to see people eat raw flesh from the bone, down to the bone with nothing left but the bones, day after day after day." ~ Gary Yourofsky Earthlings (The Movie) AKA "The vegan maker"! Do you have the balls to watch it?!?! [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] "For as long as men massacre animals, they will kill each other. Indeed, he who sows the seed of murder and pain cannot reap joy and love." ~Pythagoras (6th century BC) "Holy crap, what have we done?" `David Coles [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] Gary Yourofsky, Best Speech You Will Ever Hear! [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] The great debate, "Should animals be taken off the menu? [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] Because your FAT ASS eats meat and dairy! Are you sick yet? On meds? [link to www.medicinenet.com (secure)] The sun will nova in 2046...... The Diehold Foundation.... Doug Vogt [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] "I would save/rescue/fight for/defend, a non-human animal before I would a human animal!" ~ Kram Cool |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/25/2020 06:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1st column "Date" - Numbers taken late evening Eastern time. 2nd column "Cumulative worldwide deaths" 3rd column "Deaths over next 24 hr period" 4th column "Official count when available" - Post will be updated Jan 22 - 17 - 8 - 17 official Jan 23 - 25 - 12 - 25 official Jan 24 - 37 - 18 - 41 official Jan 25 - 55 - 27 Jan 26 - 82 - 41 Jan 27 - 123 - 61 Jan 28 - 184 - 92 Jan 29 - 276 - 138 Jan 30 - 414 - 207 Jan 31 - 621 - 310 Feb 1 - 931 - 465 Feb 2 - 1,396 - 698 Feb 3 - 2,094 - 1,047 Feb 4 - 3,141 - 1,570 Feb 5 - 4,711 - 2,355 Feb 6 - 7,066 - 3,533 Feb 7 - 10,599 - 5,299 Feb 8 - 15,898 - 7,949 Feb 9 - 23,847 - 11,923 Feb 10 - 35,770 - 17,885 Feb 11 - 53,655 - 26,827 Feb 12 - 80,482 - 40,241 Feb 13 - 120,723 - 60,361 Feb 14 - 181,084 - 90,542 Feb 15 - 271,626 - 135,813 Feb 16 - 407,439 - 203,719 As of a few hours ago: 54 confirmed Pretty close OP TRUMPS FAULT |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 07:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Eerie, right? I generally have been collecting numbers around 8-10 PM Eastern to be consistent, so I'll update my first post with whatever number is current around that time. I was just coming here to post this: The number of confirmed deaths from a viral outbreak in China has risen to 54, with authorities in hard-hit Hubei province on Sunday reporting 13 more fatalities and 323 new cases. [link to news.yahoo.com (secure)] EDIT: I should also note that you need to be careful on Amazon. I have recently noted a number of SCAM sellers listing attractive pricing. These scammers are collecting your information! Example: 180 3M 8511 respirators : $49.99 + $11.99 shipping. [link to www.amazon.com (secure)] Seller has 88% negative reviews in the past 30 days and canceling all orders : [link to www.amazon.com (secure)] Last Edited by Relik on 01/25/2020 07:10 PM |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 08:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is the time when I collect the official number for my spreadsheet. 8 PM EST South China Morning Post : The number of virus infections in mainland China now stands at 1,785 and the death toll at 55. [link to www.scmp.com (secure)] The article was posted 12 hours ago but updated within the past hour to 55 deaths. It shows 56 in a graphic. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78310900 United States 01/25/2020 08:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great post. Yes...I just checked the Home Depot and Lowes in my area...limited # of N95 masks available. Gonna run out & pick some up for family that I am sure has not. Quoting: Interested_1 Thanks for the effort on the spreadsheet. I'm definitely checking back to see the updated #s. I encourage everyone to check for masks. They will be surprised by the results. They are nearly sold out in most major cities from comments I've read elsewhere. Ideally you should pay $1.50 to $2.00 for each 3M mask. 8210/8211 recommended. A few walmarts near me have 2 packs available for $10 - $5 per mask is very high for a disposable N95 mask, but even they will sell out. Soap & disinfectants are also critically important. My local Walmart had a lot of masks available today. I had no idea what brand/type to get, but bought the 3M N95 in the two-pack (there were only a couple of those left). I just bought those over other cheaper ones because they looked more comfortable. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 78373734 United States 01/25/2020 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can't speak for every Walmart, Home Depot, etc but anyone who waits even 5-7 days from now before buying some masks will be very disappointed. IF they are available it will cost you twice as much as they are now. Amazon prices for masks have already gone up twice what they were a week ago, not to mention shipping at a later date as well. By the time it's apparent to even 5% of the population that this is a crisis, it will be too late to prepare. |
Badnickname
User ID: 78394541 Germany 01/26/2020 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nice work on the chart. Thanks for sharing. I am a bit skeptical though. There are so many videos of dead people in hospital hallways in Wuhan, and so many videos of people falling to their face dying in public, that it is absolutely impossible the official numbers are true. So, knowing this, the CCP might is probably releasing a pre-approved series of numbers to the public. So it's not just about the number of dead, but also the progression. It could be far worse than this calculation also. We are living in interesting times. The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel a man to unfold his powers. |
AR 15-SPECIALIST
Admit it! We’re Fucked User ID: 77914377 United States 01/26/2020 06:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78393745 United States 01/26/2020 06:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for the report. I use this source here which is official : [link to multimedia.scmp.com (secure)] It's reporting 80 deaths. I take the number from there in 2-3 hours, so my prediction of 82 by then is .... ominous. This is all math. |
John_the_Baptist_
User ID: 75220565 United States 01/26/2020 06:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for the report. I use this source here which is official : [link to multimedia.scmp.com (secure)] It's reporting 80 deaths. I take the number from there in 2-3 hours, so my prediction of 82 by then is .... ominous. This is all math. Thanks for that link, I posted it to my Facebook where lots of people who aren't paying attention tend to congregate ;) "This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a gasp." Stephen King, Under the Dome |
Relik
(OP) User ID: 78393745 United States 01/26/2020 11:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Main post updated. With a mathematical formula this accurate predicting future deaths, I can't get a pin? Do I need to say I got these numbers beamed to my brain by an extraterrestrial? I cannot manipulate the data in my table as it's calculated very simply: f(1) = 17 = Jan 22 f(n) = f(n-1) + floor( f(n-1) * 0.5 ) The math of any row can be checked using that formula. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78392403 United States 01/27/2020 02:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78392403 United States 01/27/2020 02:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |