COVID* STANDFORD MASK STUDY---Elsevier journal to retract widely debunked masks study whose author claimed a Stanford affiliation p345

Yeah, I’m much more concerned about the economic and social fallout than the virus. The world economy has been on the brink for 12 years, and any decent-sized breakout in one of our cities will be big trouble.

Since the virus started in central China and there’s a two-week incubation period, it stands to reason that the only cases would be Chinese currently. If, as you said, in another 8-10 days, all the cases are still ethnically Chinese, we could start to be suspicious that it discriminates, but I very much doubt that will be the case.

Well, shit. There goes Plan B.

"Rumor 5: drinking can kill the virus

锡 Xin Yanxin, the leader of the pneumonia expert group for the treatment of new coronavirus infection in Hebei Province, said that the new coronavirus is indeed intolerant to alcohol, and alcohol has a good disinfection effect. However, after a person drinks alcohol, alcohol enters the bloodstream through the gastrointestinal tract and is eliminated by liver metabolism. The new type of coronavirus infection is that the virus enters the respiratory tract and causes airway and lung lesions. "After a person drinks alcohol, the content of alcohol in the airways is far from enough to kill the virus, so there is no possibility of drinking to prevent or treat new coronavirus infections. On the contrary, excessive drinking reduces the body's resistance and easily leads to more serious Infection. "Yan Xixin said."

[link to news.workercn.cn]

I've been following Chinese-originated pandemic possibilities since the early 2000's.

Of course the numbers are way understated. Chinese hubris.

This is different. Way different. 10+ cities, 30-40 million people "quarantined". This is unprecedented in modern times. Even NOT considering the virus, the social and economic implications boggle the mind. I think China is done as a perceived superpower for quite a while. They are done as a world economic powerhouse for a long time. Just the social and economic recovery will take years. Foreign companies and countries are pulling their people out of China. It will be months or years before they can go back.

Now, add this stupid virus in to the mix, and other countries unwillingness to do the smart thing. Monitoring airports and expecting people to self-report or self-quarantine are just stupid. People suck. They will not comply. They will medicate just to get past airport checks. But, more importantly...ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS. FFS, how many "Mary Mallons" are coming in to the US every day. 5? 10? All it takes is ONE. FYI, Mary Mallon is better known as Typhoid Mary.

So, it feels different, because it is different. Way different. Personally, I don't see things getting better for China, the US, or the world, any time soon. Do I think this is it? The big one? The thing some people prepare for for years or decades but hope it never happens? I just don't know. Currently, for me, it's a struggle between seeing all this horrifying information, and normalcy bias- it can't happen, because it doesn't happen. (But, pandemics do happen, do kill millions. I just can't convince myself we are headed to a worse-case scenario.)

Damn. Sorry to carry on like this. As you can see, I, too, am trying to work through some shit. Putting it in writing certainly helped.

Good luck.

h/t Treyfish at FT

[link to www.china-briefing.com (secure)]

Coronavirus: Latest Emergency Measures Announced by the PRC Government



China’s central government has made an announcement concerning measures designed to combat the spread of the coronavirus, which has already been identified across many Chinese cities. The key points are as follows:

*The Chinese New Year holiday period will be extended “as appropriate”. This is designed to reduce the motivation for people to travel back from their home towns to where they work during this critical period.
*The start of the upcoming semester at schools and colleges around the country will also be delayed.

[snip]

*Suzhou residents currently outside of the city – are not to return to Suzhou. Those residents currently in Suzhou shall only move around when required. For companies operating within the administrative district, staff may not come back to work before February 8. Schools may not re-open before February 17. Exceptions exist for organizations involved in providing basic services for residents (provision of water, gas, electricity etc.) and those involved in combating the spread of the virus.

*For any Suzhou residents in transit (returning to Suzhou), inspections shall be carried out on every individual at stations, ports, roads, and highway exits. All such persons shall be restricted to their homes or sent to specialist facilities for a minimum period of 14 days after their return.

*Any resident who has traveled to Hubei in the past two weeks, or those who have had physical contact with people from Hubei, or those who have had physical contact with anyone already infected with the coronavirus – are required to report to a medical center to report their health condition and have their temperature taken. They should then be restricted to their homes or go to specialist facilities for observation.

*All meetings and gatherings are to be cancelled. Group social meals of all types, whether organized by companies or individuals, are prohibited. Any pre-planned events must be cancelled or delayed. All cinemas, leisure facilities, internet cafes, saunas, etc. are to be closed. Retirement homes and rehabilitation facilities are to be locked-down.

*

What concerns me is that I'm sure China is not putting out real numbers. One reason is because of the medical personel we've seen or heard breaking down over this. Medical workers are used to working long hours and they are used to seeing death and sickness. If there were only 56 deaths at this point, I don't think they would be reacting like they have been. In reality 50 something in a city of millions doesn't seem like a lot. Also they are going to great measures to block the city off.

There are confirmed cases here in the states and other places. Hopefully if others have caught it from confirmed cases in places besides China, we are given actual numbers. I'm feeling though it will be a week or so before we start hearing about it given incubation times.

This whole thing is worrysome. I have followed the Sars, ebola and mers outbreaks. This has a different feel to it and I'm not a panicer.

Yeah, I’m much more concerned about the economic and social fallout than the virus. The world economy has been on the brink for 12 years, and any decent-sized breakout in one of our cities will be big trouble.

...
I know it is really happening and expect it to come to the USA, I just can hardly process it emotionally.

I’m worried about the zombies that will roaming the streets.

If I’m in my house and I’m not infected then no one else will be allowed up my driveway.

Have a box with some food, but there will also be sign time not to come past a certain point.

Anyone I bring in..IF I would, will have to stay quarantined for two weeks or more in a tent to make sure they aren’t infected.

I’m worried about the zombies that will roaming the streets.

If I’m in my house and I’m not infected then no one else will be allowed up my driveway.

Have a box with some food, but there will also be sign time not to come past a certain point.

Anyone I bring in..IF I would, will have to stay quarantined for two weeks or more in a tent to make sure they aren’t infected.

Me too.
Same steps as grieving.

Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance (get there, get ready, prep, do it now).

I just made my last store run. Will hunker down for a week and see how things play out.

Nawty -- been so busy, have not yet had a chance to say "Thank You" for this thread.

Thank You

I've been following Chinese-originated pandemic possibilities since the early 2000's.

Of course the numbers are way understated. Chinese hubris.

This is different. Way different. 10+ cities, 30-40 million people "quarantined". This is unprecedented in modern times. Even NOT considering the virus, the social and economic implications boggle the mind. I think China is done as a perceived superpower for quite a while. They are done as a world economic powerhouse for a long time. Just the social and economic recovery will take years. Foreign companies and countries are pulling their people out of China. It will be months or years before they can go back.

Now, add this stupid virus in to the mix, and other countries unwillingness to do the smart thing. Monitoring airports and expecting people to self-report or self-quarantine are just stupid. People suck. They will not comply. They will medicate just to get past airport checks. But, more importantly...ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS. FFS, how many "Mary Mallons" are coming in to the US every day. 5? 10? All it takes is ONE. FYI, Mary Mallon is better known as Typhoid Mary.

So, it feels different, because it is different. Way different. Personally, I don't see things getting better for China, the US, or the world, any time soon. Do I think this is it? The big one? The thing some people prepare for for years or decades but hope it never happens? I just don't know. Currently, for me, it's a struggle between seeing all this horrifying information, and normalcy bias- it can't happen, because it doesn't happen. (But, pandemics do happen, do kill millions. I just can't convince myself we are headed to a worse-case scenario.)

Damn. Sorry to carry on like this. As you can see, I, too, am trying to work through some shit. Putting it in writing certainly helped.

Good luck.

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Study refers to Wuhan pneumonia 1 pass 2 or 3+ Zhong Nanshan claims fast clinical trial of new drugs

After research and analysis, many infectious disease experts concluded that Wuhan pneumonia new coronavirus can be widely transmitted from person to person and the infectious power ranges from "2" to "3+", which means one patient can be infected Two to three or more close contacts. Liang Zhuowei, director of the Li Ka Shing School of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong, described that the spread of the new coronavirus in Wuhan is not weaker than SARS. Without epidemic prevention measures, the number of patients will at least double within a week.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist at Harvard University in the United States, quoted a preliminary estimate yesterday (25th) that the infectivity of the new virus in Wuhan is 3.8, which is described as a thermonuclear plague. He later quoted the third edition of the latest edition of the Royal College of London, UK, saying that the estimated infectivity of the virus is 2.6, that is, one person can infect 2.6 people, the situation is extremely bad, and the epidemic will be difficult to stop. He also quoted report author Neil Ferguson on Twitter on the 25th, saying that although China and other countries have worked very hard, everyone must be prepared, "it may not be possible to stop the virus."

[snip]

In terms of mortality, Liang Zhuowei quoted experts inferring that the death rate of pneumonia in Wuhan reached 14%, that is, one death per 7 to 8 people, and the death rate of SARS was 17%.

“Everything we’ve learned with working with coronaviruses, with SARS and MERS, are helping us very rapidly get a jump on things with regard to this new virus.”

Nawty -- been so busy, have not yet had a chance to say "Thank You" for this thread.

Thank You

Nothing will happen in the US

Where did that train of thought even begin (that the virus only targets Chinese)? I agree with you, another week and we'll know for sure, but it doesn't seem likely that it would target only one ethnic group. That statement keeps popping up all over GLP but no one ever posts anything to support it other than "only Chinese people have died". To me, that's like saying that because there was a car crash in China, only Chinese people crash cars. Bad logic. Fact is, right now, we don't have enough information to make any kind of real assessment of the situation.

I don't understand this infectability rating at all. It makes no sense.

If it were true, that would mean that an infected person on a bus with 50 other people would only infect as many people as a person in a room with five other people.

Common sense tells me that the more people an infected person is in contact with, the more they will infect.

How can it be that anyone infected will only infect 2 or 3 people?

Someone tell me how I'm being dumb about this.

Well, shit. There goes Plan B.

"Rumor 5: drinking can kill the virus

锡 Xin Yanxin, the leader of the pneumonia expert group for the treatment of new coronavirus infection in Hebei Province, said that the new coronavirus is indeed intolerant to alcohol, and alcohol has a good disinfection effect. However, after a person drinks alcohol, alcohol enters the bloodstream through the gastrointestinal tract and is eliminated by liver metabolism. The new type of coronavirus infection is that the virus enters the respiratory tract and causes airway and lung lesions. "After a person drinks alcohol, the content of alcohol in the airways is far from enough to kill the virus, so there is no possibility of drinking to prevent or treat new coronavirus infections. On the contrary, excessive drinking reduces the body's resistance and easily leads to more serious Infection. "Yan Xixin said."

[link to news.workercn.cn]

I didn't realize the label of "Coronavirus" applied to a range of viruses with similar traits. I thought "Coronavirus" was its own animal and didn't have anything to do with SARS and MERS, other than all of them being microbes.

Now I understand why the word "Coronavirus" predates the current form of that virus. That it isn't necessarily a case of Dr Evil conjuring up things in his lab.

.