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JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript

 
XJDUB

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04/15/2018 10:42 PM

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JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript


Since 1995 statistics for the Watchtower society have rapidly become less encouraging for Jehovah's Witnesses in almost every indicator. Most dramatic has been the increase in the number of people leaving along with the number of hours required for a single convert. This is now over 17,000 hours of preaching just to have one additional "publisher" (where it was approximately 4,000 hours in 1980. See video at 0:45).

American studies show that Jehovah's Witnesses have the highest turnover of any major religion in the United States.

Between 1996 - 2005 there were close to 3 million baptisms. The increase in the number of publishers in that time was 1.4 million. This shows that 1.5 million stopped publishing in that time.

The majority of growth is now coming from developing countries in Africa and South America. In 2016, 70% of the increase came from just 7 countries. Angola (10k), Brazil (21k), Ecuador (3k), Ghana (4k), Mexico (11k), Nigeria (3k), The Rep. of Congo (34k).

On the other hand, developed countries with the highest level of wealth, education, and internet access had very little to zero growth. In 2016, many of these countries reported less publishers than the previous year. Such as Britain, Australia, Germany, Italy, USA, Canada, and Japan.

The following figures highlight important trends and show a significant drop in growth and increase in the percentages leaving. More reliance can be placed on these trends rather than the specific numbers due to the limitation in how Watchtower reporting is. For instance, "Hours Preaching Required Per Baptism" is limited in that it cannot be determined how many baptisms were NEWLY interested people from the territory as opposed to children that were raised in the religion. Also the figures for Publishers includes those who were not yet baptized as a "publisher" (but) go door to door preaching. And it cannot be determined how many of these publishers then go on to be baptized.

Watchtower has changed the criteria over the years so that now a person can be considered a "publisher" who only does 15 minutes of preaching in the entire month whereas the minimum used to be one hour.

Start of reference

... those who are temporarily limited because of serious illness or injury are aware of the provision that allows them to report field service time in 15 minute increments if they are not able to report a complete hour during one month. - Kingdom Ministry, October 2002, p. 8.

End of reference

Average Publishers are a better statistic than Peak Publishers because "Peak Publishers" can include months where a single publisher puts in several reports at the same time; such as in August, the end of the reporting year, when the elders may try and get all the publishers who haven't reported, the irregular ones, to put all their reports in that one month and then that will create an artificial peak.

Start of reference

"Peak Publishers" is the highest number for any one month of service year and may include late reports that were not added to the preceding month's report. In this way some publishers may be counted twice. - WT, Aug 15, 2011, p. 22.

End of reference

In the five years prior to 1975 the number of publishers was increasing up to 14% per year. During the 80's and 90's growth continued at around 5% per year. This has now fallen to between 1% and 3%, hardly more than the world's population growth rate. And considering a large number of new publishers are teenagers that were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses, this indicates that with 2 billion hours of preaching Watchtower can only replace the ones that are leaving (with those) raised as Jehovah's Witnesses.

The increase in Jehovah's Witnesses "Average Publishers" peaked at around 250,000 back in 1995. They've since declined to around 100,000 per year.

The rate of growth of publishers dropped from an average of 5.46% per annum over the fifteen years prior to 1995 to 2.45% between 1995 and 2014. Had growth remained at that 5.46% rate the 4.9 million witnesses in 1985 would have exceeded 14 million in 2014. Instead, in 2014 there was only 8 million witnesses. A difference of 6 million. Factors on conversion and retention, such as internet education, resulted in a growth of only 2 million instead of 8 million; just a quarter of that expected in 1995.

Baptisms

The number of baptisms reached an all-time high of 375,000 in 1997. Since then there has been a rapid fall in baptisms of 30% to an average of only 250,000 per year. When comparing baptisms to the increase in "Average Publishers" there is over 100,000 people unaccounted for each year. Baptisms are less than half of what they were in the 1990's when compared as a percentage to "Average Publishers".

Strikingly, the number of baptisms gravitates around double the number of increase in "Average Publishers", which shows about 50% are leaving each year.

One of the most striking statistics is the "Hours Preaching Per Conversion". In 1969 there was 1 baptism for every 1,983 hours of preaching. During the 1980's it had risen to 3,000 hours per baptism. In the 15 years from 1997 to 2011 the number of hours of preaching required per baptism increased from 3,000 to 6,000 (an increase of 100%). More significant is the number of hours required for an additional "publisher" due to the large increase in the number of witnesses that are leaving each year. The number of hours required for an additional "publisher" doubled from 4,000 in the early 1990's to 8,000 in 2000. It then went to 12,000 in 2014;a 300% increase in "hours required" in just 20 years.

Conversion Rate

Of greatest concern to the Governing Body must be the rapidly falling conversion rate (percentage of "Bible Studies" that go on to baptism). This has dropped dramatically. For the "Annual Number Baptized" compared to "Average Bible Studies" fell from a high of 1 in 5, or 22%, prior to 1975 to now a mere 1 in 33, or 3%. 22% down to 3%. During the 1980's and 90's the conversion rate was consistently around about 8%. This has steadily declined to less than 3% in 2014.

One thing to know is that just prior to 1975 the conversion rate went up to over 20%; double what it had been 10 years earlier. So when Jehovah's Witnesses say there was nothing special proclaimed about 1975, even the statistics themselves (let alone all the articles) show that there was a significant influence on people's mindset.

And whilst there is roughly 1 "Bible Study" conducted each month for each "publisher", only a minute amount of these ever "progress to baptism". Despite the number of "studies" doubling to 9 million in the 20 years from 1995 to 2014, the number of baptisms is actually decreasing. Plummeting from around 350,000 per year in the 1990's to flat lining around the 275,000 mark for the last few years.

Growth Compared to Total "Publishers"

This graph highlights the very small amount of growth compared to the entire number of Jehovah's Witnesses globally. (see video at 9:18)

Growth in Congregations

Because few religions actually report on the number of people preaching (they don't even have to report) it's more of an informal preaching work they carry out. The number of congregations provides the way for different religious groups to be able to compare each other. The figure for "Average Publishers" doesn't include "newly interested ones" or the youth that are coming along. From this graph (see video at 9:51) we can see a slow but steady increase in congregations over the years. One thing that has happened is that the average number of "publishers" per congregation has increased from 52 in 1970 to 68 in 2010. Again, the percent increase in congregations is going down over the decades.

Extrapolations

From this information that's been provided I've made a number of extrapolations. I want to make clear this is not an exact science. But it's very interesting to see the trends that come out.

Number Leaving

It's very interesting to see the number that are leaving. From this table here (see video at 10:28) the number missing has been calculated as the "Average Publishers" from the previous year plus "Baptisms" less the "Average Publishers" THIS year. You see how many are missing. This rate has grown quite dramatically over the years to well over 100,000 to 150,000 a year now that are leaving. We can see now that the percentage of the ones that have stopped publishing is gravitating up around the 50% mark.

For additional information regarding Watchtower lies, cover-ups, failed predictions, and human rights abuses please visit the following thread:

Thread: Jehovah's Witnesses/Watchtower Contradictions

Last Edited by XJDUB on 04/17/2018 12:16 PM
Let the facts fall wherever, whenever, and however they may.

INTP - The Logician. 'Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.' - Albert Einstein.
XJDUB  (OP)

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04/17/2018 12:16 PM

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Re: JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript
To be fair there is a number of people that die each year. The average death rate on a global basis is now .85%. (See video at 11:03) I've redone this graph taking out the ones who've died to see what number of people are actually voluntarily leaving or through being disfellowshipped or becoming inactive on their own behalf. To this I included the number of those disfellowshipped. Around about 1% of Jehovah's Witnesses are disfellowshipped each year.

Start of reference

In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers. - WT 1992, July 1, p. 19.

End of reference

About only one third of those Jehovah's Witnesses ever come back to the religion.

Start of reference

36,671 persons had to be disfellowshipped... in that same period 14,508 persons were reinstated. - WT 1975, August 1, p. 466. (This equates to 36.9% being reinstated.)

End of reference

Start of reference

During the service year of 1958-1959 there were 6,552 individuals disfellowshipped... and there were 1,596... reinstated. - WT 1960, December 1, p. 728 (This equates to 24% reinstated.)

End of reference

If I include .66% (net % disfellowshipped annually that do not return) for the numbers that are disfellowshipped each year from this I can work out how many are actually leaving of their own accord. These ones that leave of their own accord are the ones that become "inactive" (reported no preaching for 6 months).

The number of "inactive" ones is made up of three figures; the ones that have died, the ones that have been disfellowshipped, and the ones that have voluntarily stopped preaching. To the former Jehovah's Witnesses, these ones that voluntarily stop preaching are known as "faders". This category of faders has seen a significant increase since 1995. However, they are the most volatile group because some of these faders have not really determined that the Watchtower Society is not the true religion; they just stop. Often, because they're still not sure of their beliefs, they will get "reactivated" whenever there is a period of crisis. If you look at the graph here (see video at 12:41) you'll see that there are a few years where the number that fade out is actually a negative amount, which means there's more people coming back into preaching than are leaving at that particular time. These are during periods of crisis.

When we had 911, with the World Trade Center terrorist act, that created a lot of concern in people's minds who didn't really understand whether the Watchtower is true or not and so they got reactivated.

It happened again in 2008 during the midst of the global financial crisis. There was also quite a significant number of earthquakes at that time.

Then again in 2014 when it was the 100th year anniversary of "Jesus' invisible presence".

These people that "fade" and get reactivated are quite volatile because then they'll fade out again. These are really weak-minded individuals in that they're unable to make a determination whether they believe it's "the truth" and work hard for it or whether they've come to understand that it is not the true religion.

By Continent (2011) (see video at 13:50 and 14:16)

Saturation - 1 JW for every X inhabitants

Americas - 240
Oceania - 416
Europe - 462
Africa - 721
Asia/Middle East - 6,124

Comparing the number of Jehovah's Witnesses by continent highlights how dependent one's chance of being a Jehovah's Witness is on their place of birth. As an American religion, the Americas have the highest saturation of Jehovah's Witnesses with 1 witness for every 249 people. This is followed by Europe and then Oceania. These are all traditionally Christian continents. It immediately becomes apparent that the likelihood of becoming a Jehovah's Witness is dependent on being born in a Christian country.

Africa has about half the rate of JW's as Europe, which follows on from Africa being fairly evenly split between Muslims and Christians. Christian African countries have high JW density levels similar to Latin America.

In Hindu and Muslim countries, such as in Asia and the Middle East, there is a tiny fraction of Jehovah's Witnesses. Despite a population of over 4 billion people in Asia and the Middle East, half the world's population, the number of "publishers" increased in (2016) by only 12,000.

5 Year Figures

Comparing the statistics over a five year timeframe evens out some of the spikes. If we look at this (see video at 15:11) we see that several hundred thousand people every five years end up leaving the religion. It comes out at about half the people baptized.

Memorial Attendance

Growth in Memorial attendance aligns closely with growth in "publishers" and represents about 2.6 times the number of publishers (see video at 15:30). The difference was 2 in the 1960's but steadily increased until it stabilized at about 2.6 the 1980's. Many of these attendees could be considered "fence sitters"; hedging their bets that if Armageddon is real and does occur they'll jump back on board just beforehand.

Conclusion

Start of reference

Jehovah is not slow concerning his promise, as some people consider slowness, but he is patient with you because he does not desire anyone to be destroyed but desires all to attain to repentance. - 2Peter 3:9, New World Translation, 2013 Revised Edition.

End of reference

The Watchtower explains that "The Last Days" have continued for so long because "Jehovah desires ALL to attain to repentance".

Start of reference

Consequently, he is exercising patience and is having the good news declared in all the earth so that people may have every opportunity to live. - WT 2006, February 1, p. 18.

End of reference

Watchtower teaches that only Jehovah's Witnesses will survive Armageddon. As we've seen from these graphs, your chance of ever hearing about Jehovah's Witnesses is next to none in over half of the world.

Start of reference

In terms of net gains (births minus deaths), we are adding over 200,000 people to this planet every day, or over 140 people every minute. That equals over 75 million more people every year, about the same as the combined populations of California and Canada. - [link to www.google.ca (secure)]

End of reference

Every single day on average there is 200,000 people born but only 224 that convert to being Jehovah's Witnesses. So 2Peter 3:9 does not make any sense if it's applied to Jehovah's Witnesses; that "Jehovah is holding off Armageddon so that everyone has the opportunity to live".

In actual fact, every day that Armageddon has been "held off" since 1914 more and more people are going to be destroyed. In fact billions more are going to be destroyed and about 200,000 every single day are lined up for destruction if Watchtower doctrine is correct, that only Jehovah's Witnesses will survive Armageddon.

Start of reference

Why, during the 2015 service year, 8,220,105 Kingdom publishers have been active in the world field! The last part of (Isaiah's) prophecy should affect all Christians personally, for our heavenly Father says: “I myself, Jehovah, will speed it up in its own time.” - WT (Study Edition) 2016, August, p. 20.

End of reference

Another theme commonly stated by Watchtower is that Jehovah is "speeding up the work".

Start of reference

Jehovah is now speeding up the ingathering of sheeplike ones. Surely, then, this is no time for his people to slow down in their Kingdom-preaching and disciple-making work. - WT 1988, July 15th, p. 15.

End of reference

Statistics show that this is no longer true. (See video at 17:41 for graph showing "% Increase in Congregations"; peaking in 1973 at approximately 12% and steadily declining to below 1% in 2017.) Watchtower growth is steadily slowing.

It will take major policy change for the Watchtower Society to have a hope of turning around this trend and to start growing at any significant rate.

The expectation is that Jehovah's Witnesses will get to a zero and then eventually a negative growth rate over the coming years and decades.
Let the facts fall wherever, whenever, and however they may.

INTP - The Logician. 'Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.' - Albert Einstein.
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2018 12:19 PM
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Re: JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript
Over the past two years, the Watchtower is losing net congregations in the US.
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2018 01:27 PM
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Re: JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript
Over the past two years, the Watchtower is losing net congregations in the US.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 41063916


"Tis a religious Order. One need only go to court with a thing to see its true bones. Arrrrrrrrr."
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04/17/2018 01:28 PM
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Re: JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript
In court do we find
the truth of God's weal

And also to find
who is shark
and who is
seal?

The seal he be smart,
and able to find
purchase on any old rock,

With shark left behind.
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2018 01:31 PM
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Re: JWFacts - Facts About Jehovah's Witnesses Transcript
Hmm God's weal
what's the feel?
Is means hit by the rod?
A red line on ass
doth it be from God?

Or is't something God feel?
His greatest appeal
He spanketh some tribe
beatin them as they deal

In the courts is where you
will have your appeal
and the price is a PACER
Of this planet's holy seal.





GLP