Why second Korean war is just around the corner

I will try to be as short as possible, everyone's time is precious.

I will start from the assumption that North Korea won't be attacked, even if they test nuke after nuke , and ballistic missiles on a daily basis.

I will just assume that everyone is dumb as fuck, and will accept the above.



Now, what will happen in the next 10 to 15 years, if North Korea is left unchecked.

They will have, most likely, over 50 working nukes, ballistic missiles capable to reach the entire continental U.S. and subs capable of launching nuclear tipped missiles.

In the same time frame, China will expand their nuclear capabilities (most likely overpassing 500 nukes), drastically modernize their army, and having 4, maybe 5 carriers.

Also, in the same time frame, N.K. trading volume with China will quadruple, easily.


So, we will get to the point where the U.S. won't be able to do anything against North Korea.Unless war.

Once N.K and China will have the above capabilities (could be 10 years, 15 years, maybe 20 years), N.K., as China's proxy, will demand U.S. to fully retreat from South Korea and Japan.

This will lead to war.

But let's say they don't do it.


During the same time frame (10, 15 , maybe 20 years), both South Korea and Japan will realize that the U.S. have failed them, and won't be able to defend them against China and North Korea.

Both S.K. and Japan will be forced to either accept the inevitable Chinese influence or the inevitable war in the region between U.S. and China/N.K.

Unless they develop their own nukes.

But here is the problem with S.K and Japan having nukes : China won't ever, ever accept that, and this also leads to war, China will attempt to stop the S.K. and Japan becoming nuclear powers.


I could continue with other scenarios, but they all lead to war between China/N.K. and the U.S., and nukes will be used.


There is simply no scenario where N.K., as a major nuclear power in the region, won't lead to war.



Basically, the U.S. have to decide only about ONE SINGLE THING :

When to attack N.K.

Now, or later.


The more the U.S. pushes the attack time line, the worst it will be for them.


There is a possible (because everything is possible) scenario that will push the war 50 years or more :

The U.S. fully retreats from Pacific, and let China control it.

But somehow, I don't see that happening peacefully.

Last Edited by Recollector on 04/17/2017 10:43 AM