I have a somewhat different take. I think this is the calm before the storm where both sides are mobilizing forces into play. I'm not sure the people involved expected how the events would play out, and before this referendum, it's hard to say what will happen next.

But, if Russia does annex Crimea, that will surely cause some sort of response, if not a military one. And I think Ukraine has hesitated from escalating affairs because they know Russia could and believe they would take the eastern part of their nation.

If they only lose Ukraine and get to the west, then maybe all the people on the outside who are really pushing the buttons will be satisfied, in the short term.

In the longer term, I think this is just one more flashpoint in a world that's getting more incendiary, and I have a growing belief a currency war is coming shortly down the line. And I expect certain people may have planned it that way, and a lot of maneuvering may be cover toward that end.