Can ISON hit the Earth? WARNING math inside

Because whenever there is a cme the magnetic field lines of objects facing the cme get affected

Ison is currently composed of multiple debris.


So how does one redirect, not a merely a singular comet, but a mass of countless fragments.

If comet ison is electric, wouldn't it become attracted to a magnetic field line near it? Like a tractor beam?

I am not an astronomer but have basic knowledge of Newton physics. My goal here is to estimate how much energy we need in order to change the course of Ison so it will hit the Earth.

So let's start.

t: it takes 28 days for ISON to reach the Earth from Sun (2.4 x 10e6 sec)

Se: closest approach to the Earth 63,000,000 km (6.3 x 10e10 m)

Ss: distance from Earth to Sun: 149,600,000 km (1.5 x 10e11 m)

Vi: speed of Ison 86000 m/s = 8.6 x 10e4 m/s

m: estimated mass 7,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e12 g) to 7,000,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e16 g) from [link to www.nasa.gov] , for our calculation we take lower number.

angle between Earth - Sun - Projected Ison path
atan(Se/Ss) = atan(6.3 x 10e10 / 1.5 x 10e11) = atan(0.2625) = 14.7 degrees

This is how much the course of Ison or one of its debrees must be changed in order to hit the Earth.

The speed we need to push Ison in perpendicular vector towards the Earth
V = Se/T = 6.3 x 10e10 / 2.4 x 10e11 = 2.6 x 10e4 = 26000 m/s

This is how much energy needed to do that:
E = mVxV/2 = 7 x 10e12 x 6.76 x 10e8 / 2 = 2.4 x 10e21 Joels

(1 kiloton of TNT equals to 5 x 10e12 Joels so we need
2.4 x 10e21 / 5 x 10e12 of kilotons = 4.8 x 10e8 kilotons = 30,000,000 Hiroshima bombs)

It looks a lot but considering total Kinetic energy of Ison:

8.6x8.6x 10e8 x 7 x 10e12 / 2 = 259 x 10e20 = 2.6 x 10e22 Joels = 5.2 x 10e9 kilotons = 325,000,000 Hiroshima bombs

we need only 9% of the total Ison energy to be redirected in order to change the course towards the Earth.
It does not look a lot.

Let's take only small chunk of Ison (we don't need the full comet for the disaster. For example for one Million of Hiroshima bomb we need 1/325 of Ison's mass thus it is enough to redirect 9%/325 = 0.028% of the total Ison energy to change the course of this chunk.
Remember we used lowest mass estimation. So the number can be even less.

Astromut and other experts!
Am I wrong? If yes show where.

I am not an astronomer but have basic knowledge of Newton physics. My goal here is to estimate how much energy we need in order to change the course of Ison so it will hit the Earth.

So let's start.

t: it takes 28 days for ISON to reach the Earth from Sun (2.4 x 10e6 sec)

Se: closest approach to the Earth 63,000,000 km (6.3 x 10e10 m)

Ss: distance from Earth to Sun: 149,600,000 km (1.5 x 10e11 m)

Vi: speed of Ison 86000 m/s = 8.6 x 10e4 m/s

m: estimated mass 7,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e12 g) to 7,000,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e16 g) from [link to www.nasa.gov] , for our calculation we take lower number.

angle between Earth - Sun - Projected Ison path
atan(Se/Ss) = atan(6.3 x 10e10 / 1.5 x 10e11) = atan(0.2625) = 14.7 degrees

This is how much the course of Ison or one of its debrees must be changed in order to hit the Earth.

The speed we need to push Ison in perpendicular vector towards the Earth
V = Se/T = 6.3 x 10e10 / 2.4 x 10e11 = 2.6 x 10e4 = 26000 m/s

This is how much energy needed to do that:
E = mVxV/2 = 7 x 10e12 x 6.76 x 10e8 / 2 = 2.4 x 10e21 Joels

(1 kiloton of TNT equals to 5 x 10e12 Joels so we need
2.4 x 10e21 / 5 x 10e12 of kilotons = 4.8 x 10e8 kilotons = 30,000,000 Hiroshima bombs)

It looks a lot but considering total Kinetic energy of Ison:

8.6x8.6x 10e8 x 7 x 10e12 / 2 = 259 x 10e20 = 2.6 x 10e22 Joels = 5.2 x 10e9 kilotons = 325,000,000 Hiroshima bombs

we need only 9% of the total Ison energy to be redirected in order to change the course towards the Earth.
It does not look a lot.

Let's take only small chunk of Ison (we don't need the full comet for the disaster. For example for one Million of Hiroshima bomb we need 1/325 of Ison's mass thus it is enough to redirect 9%/325 = 0.028% of the total Ison energy to change the course of this chunk.
Remember we used lowest mass estimation. So the number can be even less.

Astromut and other experts!
Am I wrong? If yes show where.

No, we DO need it to wipe us out. Humans are a cancer on this planet. We need civilisatoin to start over, this one is completely f*cked.

start with yourself, worm.

you pieces of dung that wish for the conscious human, the jewel of reality, to be gone are the real drones produced by the machine. The human isn't evil, the machine is.

Would you like to try the math on a bigger object that is now a debris field!

[link to i791.photobucket.com]


The sizes based on the above Frank Whitmer photograph are 72,000 kilometres for the Head Coma (H) and 10,800 kilometres for the Core ©. The Earth has a diameter of 12,742 kilometres. So the Coma in this image is 5.6 Earth diameters and the Core is 85% of the Earth's diameter between Venus and Mercury in size.

[link to i791.photobucket.com]

Here is the close up of the Find edges and Contrast adjustment image so you can see the bad boy up close and personal.

Mass is based on a diameter of 10,800 kilometres and a density the same as an Iron Core object like Mercury of 5.427 g/cm3 is 2.84E+12 kg.

I guestimate 1/3 of the debris field is now heading our way.

OP, you forgot something - the energy required to change ISON's direction is a function of how much of a directional change needs to be made.

So, when it was closer to the sun, or right at the sun, the smallest possible vector change would bring it to Earth.

As it moves away from the sun, greater and greater angles of redirection are necessary to bring it to Earth.

And the greater the angle of redirection necessary, the greater the amount of energy.

But when it was the closest to the sun, it required the least amount of energy because it requird the least amount of redirection - but it had the most amount of energy input, since the sun was blasting it up close.

Think of driving down a street. If you change the angle of a car slightly, then by the time you get to the end of the block, you could be on the other side of the street. That takes just a small twitch of the steering wheel.

But the farther you move down the street, the more you have to move the steering wheel, until, if you wait to the end of the street, you have to crank it all the way over to get to the other side of the street before you run out of street.

So the question is, could ISON's vector have been affected by the blasting of the sun at perihelion enough to redirect its angle so that it hits Earth? Answer, of course, since what hit it actually broke it into pieces.

BUT - Earth is only one of a million places it could be redirected to. So if you add up all the OTHER places it could have been smacked into going, the Earth is an extremely tiny possibility.

I am not an astronomer but have basic knowledge of Newton physics. My goal here is to estimate how much energy we need in order to change the course of Ison so it will hit the Earth.

So let's start.

t: it takes 28 days for ISON to reach the Earth from Sun (2.4 x 10e6 sec)

Se: closest approach to the Earth 63,000,000 km (6.3 x 10e10 m)

Ss: distance from Earth to Sun: 149,600,000 km (1.5 x 10e11 m)

Vi: speed of Ison 86000 m/s = 8.6 x 10e4 m/s

m: estimated mass 7,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e12 g) to 7,000,000,000,000 kg (7 x 10e16 g) from [link to www.nasa.gov] , for our calculation we take lower number.

angle between Earth - Sun - Projected Ison path
atan(Se/Ss) = atan(6.3 x 10e10 / 1.5 x 10e11) = atan(0.2625) = 14.7 degrees

This is how much the course of Ison or one of its debrees must be changed in order to hit the Earth.

The speed we need to push Ison in perpendicular vector towards the Earth
V = Se/T = 6.3 x 10e10 / 2.4 x 10e11 = 2.6 x 10e4 = 26000 m/s

This is how much energy needed to do that:
E = mVxV/2 = 7 x 10e12 x 6.76 x 10e8 / 2 = 2.4 x 10e21 Joels

(1 kiloton of TNT equals to 5 x 10e12 Joels so we need
2.4 x 10e21 / 5 x 10e12 of kilotons = 4.8 x 10e8 kilotons = 30,000,000 Hiroshima bombs)

It looks a lot but considering total Kinetic energy of Ison:

8.6x8.6x 10e8 x 7 x 10e12 / 2 = 259 x 10e20 = 2.6 x 10e22 Joels = 5.2 x 10e9 kilotons = 325,000,000 Hiroshima bombs

we need only 9% of the total Ison energy to be redirected in order to change the course towards the Earth.
It does not look a lot.

Let's take only small chunk of Ison (we don't need the full comet for the disaster. For example for one Million of Hiroshima bomb we need 1/325 of Ison's mass thus it is enough to redirect 9%/325 = 0.028% of the total Ison energy to change the course of this chunk.
Remember we used lowest mass estimation. So the number can be even less.

Astromut and other experts!
Am I wrong? If yes show where.

Above us, huh? Made me think of this...
[link to youtu.be]
Embed please?

YES IT CAN!!

Listen to scientist from MIT explain how Ison threatens the Earth:

Op I checked the math and it looks all good to me.

It still won't hit earth though, because there is nothing that could redirect 9% of ison's energy.

What are you thinking?

OP, you forgot something - the energy required to change ISON's direction is a function of how much of a directional change needs to be made.

So, when it was closer to the sun, or right at the sun, the smallest possible vector change would bring it to Earth.

As it moves away from the sun, greater and greater angles of redirection are necessary to bring it to Earth.

And the greater the angle of redirection necessary, the greater the amount of energy.

But when it was the closest to the sun, it required the least amount of energy because it requird the least amount of redirection - but it had the most amount of energy input, since the sun was blasting it up close.

Think of driving down a street. If you change the angle of a car slightly, then by the time you get to the end of the block, you could be on the other side of the street. That takes just a small twitch of the steering wheel.

But the farther you move down the street, the more you have to move the steering wheel, until, if you wait to the end of the street, you have to crank it all the way over to get to the other side of the street before you run out of street.

So the question is, could ISON's vector have been affected by the blasting of the sun at perihelion enough to redirect its angle so that it hits Earth? Answer, of course, since what hit it actually broke it into pieces.

BUT - Earth is only one of a million places it could be redirected to. So if you add up all the OTHER places it could have been smacked into going, the Earth is an extremely tiny possibility.

OP, the AC is correct.
I rode on top of ISON as it went around the sun. Although I couldn't see the whole comet all at once, as it's massive, I am pretty sure that nothing hit it, fracturing it and causing a redirection of portions of it. I also do not think the sun did anything funny with the comet, like heat it up and cause any kind of fragmentation from that, nor did the sun behave in a way it never has before. Because we know everything about the sun, and how it has always behaved and will continue to behave, uniformally, throughout time...and judging by my knowledge about the sun, which is nothing short of everything, I can tell that it behaved as it does every second of every day.

Truly, OP...What ARE you thinking?