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comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 05:39 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
[link to www.space.com]

"It doesn't look like Comet ISON will live up to the considerable hype, one researcher says.

ISON has been billed as a potential "comet of the century," with some experts saying it could blaze as brightly as the full moon around the time of its close solar approach in late November. But the comet's recent behavior suggests that such a dazzling show is not in the cards, says astronomer Ignacio Ferrín of the University of Antioquia in Medellín, Colombia.

"Comet ISON has presented a peculiar behavior," Ferrín said in a statement Monday (July 29). "The light curve has exhibited a 'slowdown event' characterized by a constant brightness, with no indication of a brightness increase tendency. This slowdown took place around January 13th, 2013. For 132 days after that date and up to the last available observation, the brightness has remained constant."


Also below from Reuters

[link to uk.re*ters.com]

"'Comet of the Century' already may have fizzled out"


Astronomers slated to meet this week to discuss observing plans for Comet ISON may not have much to talk about. The so-called "Comet of the Century" may already have fizzled out.

"The future of comet ISON does not look bright," astronomer Ignacio Ferrin, with the University of Antioquia in Colombia, said in a statement on Monday.

Ferrin's calculations show the comet, which is currently moving toward the sun at 16 miles per second, has not brightened since mid-January. That may be because the comet is already out of ice particles in its body, which melt as the comet moves closer to the sun, creating a long, bright tail.

Are there any legit astronomers here?
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 06:21 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Is the earth going to pass through the tail of ISON or not?

If so will above ground water supplies be contaminated by iron oxide?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13391804


It like that comet with any names spins around our solar system twice before depart for another just over 300 years.

Isaac Newton mention it rightly mathematically splendour.
Meadow1

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08/03/2013 06:32 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Comets and Contagion

[link to cosmology.net]
“So comes snow after fire, and even dragons have their endings.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Hobbit
Turtles Voice

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08/03/2013 06:45 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Thanks for the thread 5 stars and karma.
"In order to arrive at what you are not,
You must go through the way in which you are not."

-TS Eliot

[link to www.turtlesvoice.com]

Momma Said Write A Book About It - New novel [link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 06:52 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
You sure held my interest. Thank you for your hard work.
FrenchyMary

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08/03/2013 06:55 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
good job OP 5* and karma for you hf
ladyannie2009  (OP)

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08/03/2013 07:01 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Very interesting indeed. Just something else occurred to me tho. If we calculate in leap years what would this do? No idea why that popped into my head.....
 Quoting: RAG 44280215




interesting! I hadn't even considered the leap years... hf

<snipped>

The math seems to work out beautifully when you add an extra day to the calendar every four years to compensate for the extra quarter of a day in the solar year. As we said earlier, however, the solar year is just about 365 ¼ days long, but not exactly! The exact length of a solar year is actually 11 minutes and 14 seconds less than 365 ¼ days. That means that even if you add a leap day every four years, the calendar would still overshoot the solar year by a little bit—11 minutes and 14 seconds per year. These minutes and seconds really start to add up: after 128 years, the calendar would gain an entire extra day. So, the leap year rule, "add a leap year every four years" was a good rule, but not good enough!

To rectify the situation, the creators of our calendar (the Gregorian calendar, introduced in 1582) decided to omit leap years three times every four hundred years. This would shorten the calendar every so often and rid it of the annual excess of 11 minutes and 14 seconds.

This ingenious correction worked beautifully in bringing the calendar and the solar year in harmony, pretty much eliminating those pesky extra 11 minutes and 14 seconds. Now the calendar year and the solar year are just about a half a minute off. At that rate, it takes 3,300 years for the calendar year and solar year to diverge by a day.

[link to www.infoplease.com]

----

thanks to all for the comments & links! hearts
"the truth will stand up, when nothing else will"
- annie's mom

"When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for."
- Dr. Clarissa Pinkola Estes
homelessguy92

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08/03/2013 07:08 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Prompted by a glp thread opened by AstraI Goat, I had researched the rudimentary basics of Comet Ison

Thread: THE COMET THAT WILL CHANGE US FOREVER: Comet ISON, What you need to know....

Because of some other information I've come acrossed, & some additional information provided by fellow glp'ers (linked below) ..... I've decided this is worthy of its own thread.

-----

C/2012 S1 was ‘discovered’ (I’m using that term loosely here) by the Russians & was officially announced to the world in Sept 2012. Depending on what site is referenced, it had first been photographed near the end of 2011 or early 2012 through one of the russian asteroid programs.

Follow-up observations came months later, using a reflecting telescope at their ‘International Scientific Optical Network’……The acronym stuck & comet ‘ISON’ was born.

Since that time, there seems to be as much conflicting information as there are agreed upon facts. Unfortunately, there’s sometimes no easy way to discern which.

The whole world is talking about this ‘comet of the century’ yet when you listen to the experts…… they all begin to sound like they’ve come down with a sudden case of ‘diarrhea of the mouth’ with one expert contradicting another to the point that you feel as if you’re watching some wretched tennis match.

If you’re not an astronomer or solar-tard, you’re left feeling more confused after listening to the experts than you were before they uttered their first words.

Celestial <anything> is not my strong suit….. and I’ve gotten so frustrated & angry with how these ‘experts’ (I’m also using this term loosely) are lying to the populous just to save their own collective asses. These people are truly the most self-serving, egotistical, lying, & manipulative breathing objects on this planet……. And I’m being ~kind~ in stopping there…..

For most of the people on this forum, or for those following this thread, this is probably gonna feel like repeating day 1 at kindergarten….. but allow me to share with others who may be walking in similar shoes as myself. People with little or no planetary expertise that are trying to sort thru the bullshit to (hopefully) find some answers.

ISON is a sun-grazing comet….. which is one of the few facts the ‘experts’ agree with.

What does that mean & why is that relevant?

A sun-grazing comet passes (grazes) at a very close proximity to the sun. Many evaporate or are destroyed because of the sun's intensity. When the experts started talking about ISON possibly ‘fizzling out’…… this is what they were referencing..... discussing whether ISON could/will make the orbit without being obliterated.

Sometimes, especially with the larger comets, they can ‘fragment’ themselves into 2 or more pieces. Which can also fragment with each subsequent orbit. One piece becoming 2…. 2 pieces becoming 6.

**keep ^^that^^ in mind while I continue**

The most famous sun-grazing comets were/are the ‘Kreutz’ sun-grazers which all originated from a single (and much larger) comet. These comets follow the same elliptical/orbital pathway…(called the kreutz path).

Depending on the source you’re referencing, 83-85% comets in this orbital path is said to be part of the ‘kreutz’ family – meaning, at one time they were part of the big guy but have since broken into smaller pieces.

Please note: I have found many articles stating unequivocally that ISON is ~NOT~ part of the kreutz family of comets. Most cite the main reason as being ISON is not following along in the kreutz orbital path-way.

I have also found many articles that make the claim that ISON’s path IS similar to the kreutz family of comets.

I am not a comet-tard, so discern for yourself, cuz I have no idea which is correct.

*kreutz comet family: [link to en.wikipedia.org]

*Ison: [link to en.wikipedia.org]

*parabola (elliptical) orbits: [link to en.wikipedia.org]

-------

OP referenced the ‘great comet’ of 1680 – so let’s go there next.

-------

<snipped>

…Late in the autumn of 1680 the good people of Manhattan were overcome with terror at a sight in the heavens…..

.....An enormous comet, perhaps the most magnificent one on record…..

…… the whole mass was growing brighter…..it reappeared like a blazing sun …….

……..threw out a tail in the opposite direction as far as the whole distance between the sun and the earth……

On the 20th of December, 1680…..It was a magnificent object, having a tail 90,000,000 miles in length.

…….at its perihelion we know that it was about one-sixth part of the sun’s diameter from his surface….

….about one-sixtieth part of our distance from it. …..

…….When it did reappear, after wheeling round the sun with a speed of 1,200,000 miles an hour, it had developed an enormous tail……

….. after carefully considering all the observations of the comet of 1680, came to the positive conclusion that it did move in a parabolic orbit with the sun in its focus……….

[link to www.jwwerner.com]

-------

<snipped>

The Great Comet of 1680 —This comet has an orbit strikingly similar to Comet ISON, begging the question of whether both objects are one and the same or at the very least are somehow related. Discovered on Nov. 14, 1680 by German astronomer Gottfried Kirsch, this was the first telescopic comet discovery in history. By Dec. 4, the comet was visible at magnitude +2 with a tail 15 degrees long.

A report from Albany, N.Y. indicated that it could be glimpsed in daylight passing above the sun.

In late December, it reappeared in the western evening sky, again of magnitude +2, and displaying a long tail that resembled a narrow beam of light that stretched for at least 70 degrees

[link to www.space.com]

------

Some additional information:

Since sometime in early June, ISON has been hidden/obscured by the sun. This is the cause of all the speculation going on about what/how ISON is doing.

However, by the end of august, ISON will once again be visible using ground telescopes and more information should become available.

Then, in September, the comet should be visible enough to see using a decent pair of binoculars.

OP mentioned ions for a very important reason.

Once the comet loops back around the sun (like an arc), and assuming that it actually survives the trip and isn’t pulverized in the process by the sun’s force, ISON will be bombarded with MAJOR (ionizing) radiation. This will illuminate the comet, making it much easier to detect without high-powered and/or specialized equipment.

During the last week of November (around the 28th) ISON will make its closest approach to the sun.

Then around December 26th….. it will pass at its closest point to earth.

[link to www.space.com]

------

I'm not sure what to make of this next grouping of information so perhaps someone with more knowledge can comment. I found this during my research & thought it too bizarre & way to coincidental to just dismiss it.

However, it could be just a whole lot of nothing.

------

2013 (this year) – 1680 (great comet year) = 333 years

<snipped>

It was difficult to study the disease (bubonic plague) as it was highly infectious and death usually came (mercifully) within four days of the first signs of the illness. It is believed that priests and monks unwittingly spread the infection as they would go from home to home to perform last rites.

It is also estimated that 90% of priests and 75% of physicians died during the epidemic because of their willingness to minister and serve during the worst of the plague.

Eventually running its course in the 14th century, the plague reappeared in London in 1665, and Marseille in 1680.

While many died, it did not reach the same level of infection and death as the scourge of the 1300s did.

[link to healthdecide.orcahealth.com]

--------

1680 – 333 = 1347

<snipped>

The Black Death, the most severe epidemic in human history, ravaged Europe from 1347-1351. This plague killed entire families at a time and destroyed at least 1,000 villages.

[link to thenagain.info]

------

1347 – 333 = 1014

<snipped>

In England 1014 AD, on the eve of St. Michael’s day (September 28, 1014) “came the great sea-flood, which spread wide over this land, and ran so far up as it never did before, overwhelming many towns, and an innumerable multitude of people.” This is clearly a reference to a tsunami similar to the one that struck Indonesia in December 2004 which killed over 250,000 people.

What could have caused this tsunami? Could a meteor or comet impact in the Atlantic Ocean have been the cause?

In other words, the evidence suggests that a comet or meteor slammed into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and ejected material from the bottom of the ocean which flew over 3800 kilometers and landed in the bog at Black Rock Forest in New York.

[link to www.freerepublic.com]

-------

1014 – 333 = 681

In 681 A.D.- Rome suffers a plague that kills thousands

[link to www.enotes.com]

--------

So the questions left are:

1. Is ISON on a 333 year orbit?

2. Is the comet of 1680 part of the kreutz family comets?

3. Is ISON part of the kreutz family?

4. Are the orbits of the kreutz comets somehow related to the plague epidemics experienced in the past? If so…..how?

5. The plague was already ~here~ but could the composition of the comet have weakened people’s immune system? Less able to fight off the infection? How is the plague connected to these comets?

--------
 Quoting: ladyannie2009



Thanks for this. I'm anxiously awaiting when it will be visible to my telescope.
psalm90

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08/03/2013 07:24 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
FYI, as far as timing and odd coincidences, posted this on an earlier thread,

Not sure about NASA's dates, but I did discover one timeline I thought was interesting,

And while I do not believe this is a tribulation date/timeline etc., (I don't pretend to know when Jesus is coming back) but if ISON should put on a show, it would be interesting as a possible sign in the heavens for anyone looking,

Israel Restored May 14th, 1948 ——25200 days (70 years) ——–>| May 12th 2017
Hanukkah, November 28th, 2013 |–--------1260 days—-------–>| May 12th 2017
"So teach us to number our days, that we may apply our hearts unto wisdom."

"Return, O LORD, how long? . . ."

Psalm 90
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 07:46 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
where is tolec when you need him, isn't some star ship coming down to take us away before the comet cums?
 Quoting: tony wonder 37037976





only the unfortunate ones, but yes

they won't be who they've led you to believe they will be however

in this case the cowards whose impetus it will be to flee, thinking themselves unworthy to suffer the consequences ordained for the earth in this last generation, will be taken quite by surprise once they've given their free will permission to be airlifted out

trick AND treat

treated to something they won't soon forget...
ladyannie2009  (OP)

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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Comets and Contagion

[link to cosmology.net]
 Quoting: Meadow1



wow meadow! this is an amazing link! it certainly helps to connect some of the dots from the last few years!

HUGE contribution!!! thank you!!! thumbs

for those interested, here's a snip from the link above:

<snipped>

In 2005, scientists from the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Washington, D.C., resurrected the 1918 virus from bodies that had been preserved in the permanently frozen soil of Alaska. They soon discovered that a completely new virus had combined with a old virus, exchanging and recombining genes, creating a hybrid that transformed mild strains of the flu virus into forms far more deadly and pathogenic. They also confirmed that the 1918 Spanish flu virus originated in the sky, first infecting birds and then spreading and proliferating in humans.

Not uncommonly, the comet's tail may cross the orbit of the Earth. When these rocks, dust, and watery ice strike the atmosphere, they often ignite, showering the Earth with "shooting stars." This is exactly what happened in 1910 when the Earth passed through the tail of Halley's Comet. Millions of pieces of debris impacted the atmosphere, lighting up the skies with flashes of light, and showering the planet with tons of cometary debris. In fact, over 2 million pounds of cosmic dust falls to Earth every day.

However, the smaller particles and any microbes and viral particles attached to them, do not burn up. Instead, they fall upon the upper atmosphere, and then slowly drift upon the air currents, sometimes staying aloft for years, crisscrossing the planet, gently falling downward, until finally making a soft landing on whatever is beneath them, be it ocean, river, animal, plant, or woman and man.

And attached to these particles of dust?

[link to cosmology.net]
"the truth will stand up, when nothing else will"
- annie's mom

"When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for."
- Dr. Clarissa Pinkola Estes
Anonymous Coward
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
OP

superb thread 5 stars

one of the best ive seen!
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 08:12 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
"In 2005, scientists from the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Washington, D.C., resurrected the 1918 virus from bodies that had been preserved in the permanently frozen soil of Alaska. They soon discovered that a completely new virus had combined with a old virus, exchanging and recombining genes, creating a hybrid that transformed mild strains of the flu virus into forms far more deadly and pathogenic. They also confirmed that the 1918 Spanish flu virus originated in the sky, first infecting birds and then spreading and proliferating in humans."

Uh... no. The 1918 "Spanish Flu" originated in Iowa in swine... having been created at Ames, Iowa, at an experimental biological warfare station there at Iowa State University.

US Army biologists had moved a form of bird flu into swine... once in swine it completely ravaged the countryside. The first killed were in Kansas City -- soldiers... exposed to it on purpose.

Wake the fuck up.
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 08:18 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
excellent...5 stars
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2013 09:49 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
I ONLY take my ISON bews from NewThor

Who exactly do you think you are?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44532733


Thor never mentioned those other comets and the black plague. Let OP live
Phase-Sphere

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08/03/2013 10:23 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Great work!


LMoonShower
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08/03/2013 10:53 PM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Good job OP. GLP should make its own ISON update page. It definitely needs to be watched closely.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 01:20 AM
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
bump
Anonymous Coward
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
bump
FrenchyMary

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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
bump
Anonymous Coward
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
comet ison for intelligent people: it doesn't exist.
Meadow1

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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
Excellent presentation, Milady.
“So comes snow after fire, and even dragons have their endings.”
&#8213; J.R.R. Tolkien, The Hobbit
Anonymous Coward
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
bump
NobodysFriend
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
thanks
Anonymous Coward
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Re: comet ison for dummies: the rudimentary basics of C/2012 S1
I read somewhere that the symptoms of the plague match up quite well with the symptoms of radiation poisoning. I don't know enough about the black plague or 14th century medicine to know how the people of the time judged sicknesses and transmissions from people to people. But someone had suggested that it could be possible that this comet emitted a ton of radiation as it went by, and as we passed through its tail, we got hit with huge amounts of radiation, which could have seemed to be a plague... no idea how much validity there is to that theory, but just thought it was interesting.





GLP