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Democrats Take Lead Over Republicans Amid Bush Woes, Poll Shows

 
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04/13/2006 01:29 AM
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Democrats Take Lead Over Republicans Amid Bush Woes, Poll Shows
[link to www.bloomberg.com]

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats, buoyed by President George W. Bush's problems, have taken commanding leads over Republicans on most issues and in voter preferences for the November congressional elections, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows.

The poll found that registered voters favor Democrats by 49 percent to 35 percent as the party they would like to see win their congressional district this year. Democrats are preferred even on issues that often favor Republicans, such as taxes and the budget deficit, and lead by wide margins on traditional Democratic strengths like Social Security and health care.

While Republicans maintain an edge in handling terrorism and the war in Iraq, the party's disapproval rating among all Americans has jumped 6 percentage points since January, to 50 percent. That corresponds with a souring national mood, as 65 percent say the U.S. is on the wrong track.

``These numbers indicate deep trouble for the party this fall,'' said Vin Weber, a former Republican lawmaker from Minnesota with close ties to the Bush administration. ``For House Republicans, it means that a lot of seats that they have been thinking of as safe are going to be competitive.''

`Not for the People'

Celeste Pikey, a 60-year-old disabled retiree and lifelong Republican from Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin, illustrates the party's problems.

``The Republicans used to be for the people,'' said Pikey, a poll participant who spoke in a follow-up interview. ``They're not for the people anymore,'' she said, citing Republicans' handling of health care and the war in Iraq.

Unhappiness with Bush is so pervasive that 49 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Massachusetts Senator John Kerry if the 2004 presidential election were held today, to 39 percent who say they would vote for the president. Pikey, who backed Bush in the last two elections, says she would now vote for Kerry.

Overall the poll shows the president's approval rating at 39 percent, statistically unchanged from 38 percent in January.

The poll of 1,357 adults, including 1,234 registered voters, was conducted April 8 to 11 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Iraq War

Bush's rating on handling terrorism is down 5 points from January, to 43 percent. While he saw a 4-point boost on Iraq in that period, only 37 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the war.

Iraq is the biggest drag on Bush's popularity, said Ari Fleischer, the president's first press secretary. ``So long as Iraq remains the source of so much seeming bad news, it will remain tough'' for Bush, Fleischer said.

The latest Iraq-related problem for the president, the poll indicates, is the disclosure on April 6 that he authorized the leaking of classified intelligence to a reporter: Two-thirds of those polled say Bush's actions weren't appropriate.

While Americans are divided over whether Bush's authorization of warrantless wiretaps on Americans was acceptable, a majority, 56 percent, believe the actions aren't grounds for impeachment. Americans are evenly split on whether Bush should be censured for the wiretaps, with 46 percent saying yes and 45 percent saying no.

The public is also divided on the question of whether Bush generally shows good judgment in a crisis: 49 percent say no, while 46 percent say yes.

Opinion Gaps

The poll exposed an opinion gap on a range of issues, with Democrats holding the advantage on every issue except for terrorism and the war in Iraq. Democrats hold a 4-point advantage on immigration.

On taxes, usually a Republican strength, Americans by 41 percent to 29 percent say Democrats can do a better job. The Democrats enjoy much bigger margins on handling prescription drug coverage for senior citizens, the budget deficit and Social Security. Republicans also trail on such broader questions as which party better represents American values and can keep the country prosperous.

The survey suggests the Democrats are experiencing some success in their effort to paint the Republicans, who control both houses of Congress as well as the presidency, as corrupt. Thirty-five percent of Americans say Republicans listen more to lobbyists and special interests than their constituents, while 26 percent say Democrats do.

The Republicans' 10-point advantage on national security and terrorism is less than in some previous polls, and Americans now are evenly divided on which party can better deal with Iraq.

Personal Favorability

Bush has long enjoyed high personal favorability ratings from the public. The poll shows that trend continues, though about as many Americans, 62 percent, say they don't like his policies as say they like him, 61 percent.

Women and men differ sharply in their views of Bush's handling of a number of issues, including Iraq and the war on terrorism, where women give Bush a 34 percent approval rating to 53 percent among males. Three-fifths of women disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy, while roughly half of men disapprove.

Among all respondents, Bush saw a 2 percentage-point improvement in his handling of the economy to 39 percent since March. Americans' general perceptions of the economy dipped by 4 points from March, though; 52 percent now say the economy is doing well.

Congress's overall approval rating fell to 28 percent in the poll, a record low in Los Angeles Times polling, which suggests Americans are frustrated with both parties. For instance, Americans see no difference between the parties on which has more honesty and integrity, with 30 percent saying Democrats and 29 percent choosing Republicans.

`Political Bums'

``The whole system stinks,'' said Jerry Green, an 83-year- old retired commercial pilot and Democrat. ``I think they ought to have a president for six years and the same for Congress. That's it,'' said Green, who lives in Deerfield Beach, Florida. ``These fellas are political bums.''

Democrats need to pick up a net of 15 seats to win back control of the House of Representatives. When asked which party they would like to control the House after the November elections, voters by 51 percent to 38 percent say the Democrats.

By contrast at a comparable time in 1994, voters were evenly divided. The Republicans that year went on to score a landslide victory in November and take control of the House.

The poll also yielded conflicting results on abortion. A majority, 58 percent, said they disapprove of a new law South Dakota has adopted banning all abortions except to save the life of the mother. Yet in a separate question, 51 percent of Americans said they believe abortion should either be illegal without exception or illegal except in the cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Nicholas Johnston in Washington at [email protected]





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