the Kawaii Atom-Boy
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User ID: 16118007
 Japan
05/23/2012 06:22 AM
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Report Copyright Violation | Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents is higher than expected Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents
is higher than expectedCatastrophic nuclear accidents such as the core meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima are more likely to happen than previously assumed. Based on the operating hours of all civil nuclear reactors and the number of nuclear meltdowns that have occurred, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz have calculated that such events may occur once every 10 to 20 years (based on the current number of reactors) — some 200 times more often than estimated in the past.
The researchers also determined that, in the event of such a major accident, half of the radioactive caesium-137 would be spread over an area of more than 1,000 kilometres away from the nuclear reactor. Their results show that Western Europe is likely to be contaminated about once in 50 years by more than 40 kilobecquerel of caesium-137 per square meter. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, an area is defined as being contaminated with radiation from this amount onwards. In view of their findings, the researchers call for an in-depth analysis and reassessment of the risks associated with nuclear power plants.
The reactor accident in Fukushima has fuelled the discussion about nuclear energy and triggered Germany's exit from their nuclear power program. It appears that the global risk of such a catastrophe is higher than previously thought, a result of a study carried out by a research team led by Jos Lelieveld, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz: "After Fukushima, the prospect of such an incident occurring again came into question, and whether we can actually calculate the radioactive fallout using our atmospheric models." According to the results of the study, a nuclear meltdown in one of the reactors in operation worldwide is likely to occur once in 10 to 20 years. Currently, there are 440 nuclear reactors in operation, and 60 more are planned.
To determine the likelihood of a nuclear meltdown, the researchers applied a simple calculation. They divided the operating hours of all civilian nuclear reactors in the world, from the commissioning of the first up to the present, by the number of reactor meltdowns that have actually occurred. The total number of operating hours is 14,500 years, the number of reactor meltdowns comes to four — one in Chernobyl and three in Fukushima. This translates into one major accident, being defined according to the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), every 3,625 years. Even if this result is conservatively rounded to one major accident every 5,000 reactor years, the risk is 200 times higher than the estimate for catastrophic, non-contained core meltdowns made by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1990. The Mainz researchers did not distinguish ages and types of reactors, or whether they are located in regions of enhanced risks, for example by earthquakes. After all, nobody had anticipated the reactor catastrophe in Japan.
25 percent of the radioactive particles are transported further than 2,000 kilometres [ link to phys.org] Nuclear meltdowns 200x more likely than previously estimatedThe computer simulations revealed that, on average, only eight percent of the 137Cs particles are expected to deposit within an area of 50 kilometres around the nuclear accident site. Around 50 percent of the particles would be deposited outside a radius of 1,000 kilometres, and around 25 percent would spread even further than 2,000 kilometres. These results underscore that reactor accidents are likely to cause radioactive contamination well beyond national borders.
The results of the dispersion calculations were combined with the likelihood of a nuclear meltdown and the actual density of reactors worldwide to calculate the current risk of radioactive contamination around the world. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an area with more than 40 kilobecquerels of radioactivity per square meter is defined as contaminated.
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If a single nuclear meltdown were to occur in Western Europe, around 28 million people on average would be affected by contamination of more than 40 kilobecquerels per square meter. This figure is even higher in southern Asia, due to the dense populations. A major nuclear accident there would affect around 34 million people, while in the eastern USA and in East Asia this would be 14 to 21 million people. [ link to scienceblog.com] After 50 Years they slowly realize it!
Let us hope that the next one is not in your Hometown!Last Edited by The real and almighty Atom-Boy on 05/23/2012 06:27 AMG.Y.!B.E. |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 16515777
 United Kingdom
05/23/2012 06:35 AM
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Report Copyright Violation | Re: Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents is higher than expected To put that into simple terms: after so many fuck up they had to admit that fuck ups are probable. |
12.21.12
User ID: 9992933
 United States
05/23/2012 06:37 AM
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Report Copyright Violation | Re: Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents is higher than expected To put that into simple terms: after so many fuck up they had to admit that fuck ups are probable.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16515777  , well put |
the nemui Atom-Boy
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User ID: 16118007
Japan
05/23/2012 06:42 AM
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Report Copyright Violation | Re: Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents is higher than expected
I think they are very surprised about the Size of the contaminated Area! (25% further than 2.000 Kilometer) In Chernobyl they thought this happened because of the Graphite Fire which was sooooooo hot that the Isotopes get kicked very high in to the Stratosphere but there was no Fire in F'Shima! What they would do if something happened in the big Centers like Northern Europe or the East-coast of the US? What a Nightmare, i can understand the Germans very, very well. G.Y.!B.E. |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1320412
 Germany
05/23/2012 07:35 AM
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Report Copyright Violation | Re: Probability of contamination from severe nuclear reactor accidents is higher than expected The probability should be much higher. Regarding: [ link to en.wikipedia.org] + some other I know of, I count at least 19 meltdowns so far. party on... |
