Recent observations on Yellowstone for serious magmatards

Hi, thanks for the reply. I haven't got much of a clue as you on the subject lol, but I posted my findings to share the information with everyone. Then after posting I came across yours.

What I do find interesting is the article I posted on my thread that states that Sour Creek Dome is located at or near Pelican Cone. Apparently, according to them, this is where the epicenter will be of Yellowstone erupting.

I am merely an interested amateur myself.

Yes you are correct, the Sour Creek dome is one of the two resurgent domes with the other being Mallard Lake.

You are also correct in stating that the resurgent domes would be expected to become epicenters of any future explosions.

[link to www.colorado.edu]


Thee YPC is fairly close to the Sour Creek dome geographically. The LKWY and the YPC sensors are both close to the Sour Creek dome from what I am able to ascertain.

[link to pubs.usgs.gov]

[link to volcanoes.usgs.gov]


Sensor map:

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

Keep us updated emerald eyes.

:thank-you:

Shes gonna blow!!!! About 13,134 AD or so. Don't worry people back to sleep.

I would definitely say something is going on at Pelican Cone, taking a look at todays seismographs

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

Hi guys,

I wanted to provide an update about the YPC (Yellowstone Pelican Cone) situation with respect to some information that I have been looking into. I know that there have been several recent threads on this development, so I wanted to update on my thread, as well to give my perspective.

Kudos to the other threads for bringing attention to certain recent developments.


First of all, there were several requests to link the seismographs: [link to www.isthisthingon.org]
to the USGS seismographs.

The above site is handy because it displays all of the graphs at once. The USGS site shows the graphs separately, but the information can be verified here by clicking on the individual stations:
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
For example, here is the YPC from 12-28-11:
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
Which is consistent with the YPC 12-28-11 from the “isthisthingon.org” site
[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

One thing that I noticed today was that the YPC and the YMP both seem to be “turned off” after around 5:00 AM MST (local time) today.
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

The reason that I make that statement is because to the right of each graph there are some little numbers (DC), which record maximum amplitudes (both positive and negative) on each graph line. Usually there is some fluctuation and an isolated line will read zero, but not all of the lines after a specific time period. The probability of all of those subsequent lines reading zero on both recorders (with one tiny exception of a “1”) would seem to be pretty small with correctly functioning recorders.

Anyway, the concern has recently become related to all of the recent activity, particularly with respect to the multiple spike-like lines on both the YPC and YMP recorders:


[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]
[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

There has been much discussion as to what these multiple spikes might represent. I am personally, of the opinion that this represents magmatic or rock fracturing of some sort, or possibly electromagnetic activity preceding other seismic events. I realize that there are others with differing opinions, which may be very legitimate, but I wish to give some reasons for my conclusions.

More on rock snapping:
[link to volcanogeek.wordpress.com]

There are different types of magma associated with the Yellowstone system. One of these specific types is called “silicic magma”

[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
[link to www.geology.wisc.edu]


Large volume and explosive silicic eruptions have in the past occurred from Yellowstone as well as other major volcanic systems:

[link to bulletin.geoscienceworld.org]
[link to www.earthobservatory.sg]

This type of magma is notable for its tendency to produce seismogenic fracture:

[link to www.misasa.okayama-u.ac.jp]

(note especially slide number 9/16)

ftp://ftp-server.rm.ingv.it/pub/jacopo.taddeucci/PAPERS/Tuffe​netalNATURE08seismogenicmagma.pdf

(This link doesn't seem to work, cut and paste in browser)


I don’t want to violate any copyrights, but you can read the article. These silicic magmas are brittle and subject to high temperature fracturing or faulting within these silicic magma systems. These spikes recordings may also be electromagnetic in nature, which may precede other seismic activity by months (They may resemble calibration events, but are much too frequent):

[link to www.google.com]

[link to www.earthquakeprediction.gr]


Silicic magma is also noted for its tendency to trigger explosive eruptions, particularly in areas where water is present (Yellowstone has an extensive hydro-thermal system):

[link to books.google.com]

[link to search.engrant.com]

[link to geology.gsapubs.org]
[link to www.nature.com]
[link to sp.lyellcollection.org]


Anyway, I realized that this may be TMI (too much information) for some, but I wanted to provide additional information for those who may be interested in such information.

In putting this together, the bottom line is “what does this mean?”

In my opinion, there have been some unusual events located near the Sour Creek resurgence dome as evidenced by the YPC and YMC sensors. Yellowstone has the potential for explosive, silicic eruptions based upon its past performances. It also has the potential for much smaller rhyolitic lava eruptions and hydrothermal explosions, as well as the potential to do nothing major in the near future.

[link to volcanoes.usgs.gov]

These current events do not necessarily mean that a Yellowstone eruption is imminent, but volcanoes can and do erupt and Yellowstone is a volcano. I also feel that information is sometimes “edited” and what is released to the public is very carefully controlled.

I really do not expect the USGS or any other governmental agencies to make any statements until an undeniable event occurs, based upon the “mistake” that the USGS felt they made about the Long Valley 1982 “false alarm”.

[link to findarticles.com]
[link to findarticles.com]

[link to www.nytimes.com]

[link to earthweb.ess.washington.edu]


For now, I will keep watching. Cheers to all of you who join me and others

Last Edited by emerald eye on 12/28/2011 08:46 PM

Another nice reference with good images of the resurgent domes:

[link to volcanoes.usgs.gov]

Last Edited by emerald eye on 12/28/2011 09:14 PM

Bless you, emerald eye for all your work and providing info to the rest of us, even though we may be 2500 miles away on the East Coast. An eruption there WILL affect the WHOLE USA, and , over a LONG period of time/change MANY peoples future !

Eagle

A good article by Dr. Lowenstern:

[link to rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org]

More nice graphics including the fractures around the resurgence domes, earthquakes, uplifts, crustal motion, and other features (especially pages 27-29, 34-38:

[link to terra.rice.edu]

Thank you Emerald for this thread, I was on another thread about yellowstone (on a diff website) an they are discussing about what seems to be going on at yellowstone, but it still was like, wtf is going on, no one would explain what it all meant, Im a total moron when it comes to this, so I come here and you answered all my questions lol, thank you, I will continue monitoring this thread because it seems to be the best so far.

:-)

Thanks for your kind comments.

I am not sure that anyone really knows what is going on with Yellowstone for certain.

I keep trying to use logic and the soundest information that I can find online to piece together the parts of this puzzle.

Again today, I noticed that the YMP and YPC both seemed to be switched on then off again. It could be sensor malfunction, but it is odd that both sensors are malfunctioning in what appears to be nearly the same way. Perhaps there is a transducer that joins them together that explains this, or perhaps there are other explanations. It is odd for sure.
[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]


I will continue to do my best in trying to come up with reasonable explanations for what we may be seeing.

Chart is insane! WTF?

[link to theinterveners.org]

Here is the link to the road construction in Yellowstone. Most roads are closed this time of year. There is currently only one area they are doing construction and it is not near this area.

[link to www.nps.gov]

"There has been much discussion as to what these multiple spikes might represent. I am personally, of the opinion that this represents magmatic or rock fracturing of some sort, or possibly electromagnetic activity preceding other seismic events. I realize that there are others with differing opinions, which may be very legitimate, but I wish to give some reasons for my conclusions."

~~~EEye

Thanks emerald,...I for one value your opinion of the matter and weigh it against others.



Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 12/29/2011 05:31 PM

Thanks Zack,

It is always good to hear from you.

Thanks Emerald Eye for the thread and info!
Am passing this link on to you in case you don't know about it.
If you know a locations zipcode, you can do a zipcode search.
These arrays are all over the US,usually on private property.
Sometimes with the missing USGS data on seismo's, you can still get it on these, but each line is a 2 hour time period, not 15 minutes like our local seismo is.
Maybe you can find the nearest ones to the areas in Yellowstone you are watching. You can also get into the station data pages where all sorts of info is recorded!


[link to usarray.seis.sc.edu]

Since I've nominated you as the local authority on Yellowstone, I would like to hear what you have to say about the latest on pelican dome.

I have been very busy lately both at home and at work, but I have been watching this with some interest and a bit of concern. (No panic yet, just much interest, much curiosity, and as of the present, only mild concern.)

I haven’t posted much lately, partially because I have been busy elsewhere and partially because I must admit that I have been a bit burned out lately with GLP.

When I do post, I try to present as much accurate information on the particular topic that I can find from what I consider to be the most legitimate and relevant sources, which are available without cost to the public. (I also sometimes have access to other sources, which I cannot always reference here, due to copyright issues, confidentiality issues, or “pay for use issues” These are often sources, which are not free, but require payment or other credentials to view).

There are a lot of really great people here, but I am getting a bit tired of the nasty, crazy idiots. Sometimes it seems that the GLP creeps outnumber those of us who are here to exchange information and ideas in a positive and helpful manner, and recently this has made me question if I really want to continue to be a part of this. (Maybe this is just fatigue talking, I often love and hate GLP at the same time.)

Interestingly this thread and Gizzie’s thread: ( Thread: 100% Something's Going Down At Pelican Cone (Yellowstone)..Update 15 (05/09/12) BEFORE 3.7 MAG, RADAR SHOWING PLUMES were both referenced over at “Eruptions”: [link to www.jonfr.com] (Thanks Mike) but of course dismissed without any real consideration because it was on GLP. I guess I will take GLP honesty any day over such falsely intellectual snobbery, but I really am getting tired of all the unwarranted and unnecessary hatred and negativity here.

Anyway, getting back to topic, there has been much discussion about the recent anomalous events particularly at Pelican Cone (YPC) but also on other sensors throughout the park. First of all, I really don’t think this is wind or ice activity. Yellowstone is always a bit breezy in the winter, but nothing really out of the ordinary for this time of year in this part of the country.

Here is an example of wind noise, sometimes referred to as microseismic noise with an accompanying description, which theoretically can occur hours after major wind events. Movements of water offshore against a shoreline, during very major windstorms such as hurricanes and nor'easters seem to cause the strongest ones. Since the current anomalous activity doesn’t seem to be distributed evenly throughout the park, or even around the lake, I don’t think this explains what we are currently seeing.

[link to www.seismosoc.org]

Another example of wind noise:

[link to www.mgs.md.gov]

I could accept sensor malfunction as a possible explanation, if it was an isolated sensor, but the activity in YMP and YPC seem tied together, and also somewhat synchronized with other sensors such as the YML. Perhaps they share a common malfunctioning transducer, transmitter or some other type of equipment, but I think that is unlikely. It also seems to me that the YMP and YPC seem to coincidentally be “shut down” at the same times, which seems odd, and non-random.

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

The YML looked especially unusual the same day, with somewhat the same variations of intensity during the same time frames. This in particular does not look like wind, or other random noise (There is a calibration pulse at around 22:08), but instead more resembles reverberation of liquid similar to the “shake up” occurs in Yellowstone following very large earthquakes. (BTW, that is a calibration pulse at around 22:08.)

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

For comparison, this is the YMC following the large Japanese earthquake in the early morning hours of March 11, 2011:
[link to www.isthisthingon.org]



The other interesting pattern occurred in the early morning hours (the 12:15 AM, MST line) of 1-13-11 on the LKWY sensor:

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

To me, this pattern resembles an episode of called a "tornillo.” "Tornillo” is the Spanish word for “screw”

Example seen here:
[link to kiska.giseis.alaska.edu]

More information on "tornillos”

[link to www.volcanolive.com]

Yes, this event was isolated and rather brief, but it is worth watching for future episodes, as tornillos can be indicators of much more significant events.

In summary, I believe that there is evidence of some anomalous and possibly significant events currently occurring on the Yellowstone seismographs. These could represent nothing at all, hydrothermal events, a small eruption (as have occurred more often than “the biggies” in Yellowstone’s history), or a bigger event.

For reasons stated in an earlier post, I don’t believe that the USGS will make any announcements or predictions until an undeniable event occurs. This is partially due to problems in the past over Long Valley’s “false alarm” and the conservative nature of most scientists. This is felt to be by necessity; as to unnecessarily panic the public would be considered irresponsible. The general public is viewed as little more than large children, and is therefore treated accordingly.

[link to earthweb.ess.washington.edu]

Forecasting volcanic eruptions is extremely difficult, and no scientist wishes to be responsible for a “failed prediction”. Geologists and volcanologists also have worked long and hard for a career, and they must consider their reputations amongst their peers when being considered in funding for grants and other professional situations. I totally understand and respect this necessity.

[link to www.geo.mtu.edu]

(Yes, I know that the above article is old, but it explains the "mindset" very well.)

Bottom line: no person alive today has ever witnessed or recorded the exact precursors to a Yellowstone or any other super volcano eruption.

The best that we can do is speculate based upon mathematical models and what we know about other types of volcanic eruptions. My personal belief is that currently there are some interesting activities, but we are not yet in the “red zone” of imminent severe activity. I pray that is the correct assessment, but depending upon what happens that assessment could change tomorrow.

At least on GLP we can discuss it openly and speculatively without academic restrictions or career repercussions, which is one of the reasons I guess that I keep coming back.

Hugs to my GLP friends.

Last Edited by emerald eye on 01/14/2012 09:44 AM

Thanks Ozark, great link!

More on tornillos:
[link to www.annalsofgeophysics.eu]

If these were true tornillos, they were very short in duration.

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]


(The longer the duration (length of screw) apparently the greater volume of the eruption.)

However even a “small” gas or magma release under the lake could potentially be an issue as it could potentially augment the fragmentation of the overlying “ cap rock” which may or may not increase the risk of even greater fragmentations and failure.

(This paper also speculates about a “buried volcanic unit in the lower Pelican Valley”, which I find interesting given the current interest in the Pelican Cone YPC seismograph.)

[link to www.georgewright.org]

Last Edited by emerald eye on 01/14/2012 10:16 AM

A nice overview:

“SUPERVOLCANOES AND THEIR EXPLOSIVE SUPERERUPTIONS”


[link to activetectonics.asu.edu]

.
... how much warning can be given when Yellowstone goes? ...
.
... I remember how St. Helen was "bulging" and they did give warning ...
.

Wow, I nominated you, then you post great info.

You're now recommended as the local lead authority for Yellowstone, I'm actually out of town right now ( Baja Cali ) and waiting to ride out a quake while I'm here.

Will delve further into your posts upon return and if something big happens while I'm here, I'll post here first.

Mount St. Helen's is not the same type of volcano as Yellowstone, so this is a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The signs used to predict the behavior of typical volcanoes have never been tested with any actual super volcano eruption observations, so they may or many not apply. Even with more typical volcanoes, eruptions are very difficult to predict. Its a bit like a pregnant lady, everyone knows that she will give birth, and mostly what the signs will be, but the unknown question is exactly when.

For a great explanation on what makes a super volcano special with it's super eruption, see this excellent paper:

[link to activetectonics.asu.edu]


The signs of Mt. St Helen's re-awakening are as follows in chronological order are as follows: from the following summary:

[link to history1900s.about.com]


"Piecing together eyewitness descriptions and geologic evidence, it is believed that Mt. St. Helens erupted somewhere between 1600 and 1700, again in 1800, and then quite frequently during the 26-year span of 1831 to 1857. After 1857, the volcano grew quiet."

1. "March 20, 1980, a 4.1 magnitude earthquake struck underneath Mt. St. Helens."
2. "March 27, a small explosion blew a 250-foot hole in the mountain and released a plume of ash. This caused fears of injuries from rockslides so the entire area was evacuated."
3. "April, a large bulge was noticed on the north face of the volcano growing quickly (5 feet per day)"
4. " End of April, the plentiful plumes of smoke and seismic activity had begun to dissipate. Thus, as April drew to a close, officials were finding it increasingly difficult to maintain the evacuation orders and road closures due to pressures from homeowners and the media as well as from stretched budget issues."
5. "At 8:32 a.m May 18, 1980, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck under Mt. St. Heens. Within ten seconds, the bulge and surrounding area fell away in a gigantic, rock avalanche."
6. "The avalanche, huge to begin with, quickly grew in size as it crashed down the mountain, traveling around 70 to 150 miles per hour and destroying everything in its path. The blast of pumice and ash traveled northward at 300 miles per hour and was a raging hot 660° F (350° C). The blast killed everything in a 200-square mile area. Within ten minutes, the plume of ash had reached 10 miles high. The eruption lasted nine hours."

"For the scientists and others who were caught in the area, there was no way to outrun either the avalanche or the blast. Fifty-seven people were killed. It is estimated that about 7,000 large animals such as deer, elk, and bears were killed and thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of small animals died from the volcanic eruption."

A more detailed description can be found here:

[link to mountsthelens.com]

This paper details the exact warnings that were offically given and the strengths and failures of those warnings. I think this is worth reading as it is an excellent assesment. This gives a much better answer to your question than anything else I have seen with respect to Mt. St Helens and the warnings given.

[link to desastres.usac.edu.gt]

Here is another very good perspective on this:

[link to www.seattlepi.com]


This page also has a good discussion about forecasting, particularly with respect to seismology, and pattern changes.
[link to whyfiles.org]

Here is an image of an actual Mt. St. Helens seismograph of May 18, 1980 showing the antecedent tracings including the harmonic tremor.

[link to shakingearth.blogspot.com]

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

I hope that this helps to answer your question. It is the best I can do now, I am exhausted. I will try to check in tomorrow as well after a few of these

Last Edited by emerald eye on 01/14/2012 11:54 PM

Thanks, friend.

YML also appears to be waking up a bit.

[link to isthisthingon.org]

[link to isthisthingon.org]


A couple of other good threads as well, on the recent YPC activity.

Last Edited by emerald eye on 01/15/2012 12:03 AM

Mt Sheridan and lake Mary have also picked up in activity the graphs are almost the same.

Aww, C'mon emerald. You have to allow for the witless tards that roost here. Like moths, they are attracted to the light.

Where else am I going to be introduced to tornillos and the like? Huh? I ask you.

Anyway, I curse you sometimes for posting such thorough and interesting info. My limited attention span fights against following your links, but I can't seem to overcome the compulsion to read more. Learning can be exhausting:)

Your efforts are always appreciated and noted.

Hope all is well with you

**edit to add**

Wow, that link you posted on Supervolcanoes is fascinating. The comparisons of size between Yellowstone and Mr. St. Helens was startling. I mean,...whoa.


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 01/15/2012 02:08 PM

You are correct, and there is a definite up tick on those sensors as well. Other sensors, some of which are set at even greater sensitivity seen unaffected, so I really don’t think it is the wind, which is pretty typical in winter here in Wyoming.

It is usually breezy in Yellowstone this time of year, but the weather is currently nothing out of the ordinary. Here is a link to the Yellowstone weather:

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

Here is a link to the radar that covers Yellowstone (out of Billings MT):

[link to radar.weather.gov]



Here is the YHL (Hebgen Lake) sensor set at 200 mv (microvolts), (the lower the number, the greater sensitivity) and showing some seismic activity, but it doesn’t show the sustained activity that we are seeing on the YPC (1600 mv), to some extent the YMP (1066.7 mv) and now the YMS( 100 mv) and YML( 125 mv)

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]


The Yellowstone thumbnails site seems to be having some recent problems. Today again the site does seems not to display correctly.

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]


Many of us who follow Yellowstone use this site as a convenience because it displays all of the University of Utah webicorders at once in real-time so the entire park is visible at a glance rather than clicking on each of the webicorders as the U of Utah site requires.

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

Because of the convenience factor, many of the links that I (and others have posted on other threads) link back to the Yellowstone day thumbnails website, but the information is also available on the University of Utah. The University of Utah site is just less user friendly, and you must click a few more times to get the same information, but it is there.

Here is the YPC for today:

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

The YMP:

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

The YMS (Mt. Sheridan):

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

The YML (Mary Lake):

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]


The YLT:

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]

The LKWY (Lake Yellowstone):

[link to www.seis.utah.edu]


Also here is the Old Faithful area web cam, which has been posted elsewhere but I am adding it here as well:

[link to www.windowsintowonderland.org]

Last Edited by emerald eye on 01/15/2012 02:14 PM