SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Flare peaked at M6.2... ar3098 again.

SolarDemon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 282
Issue Time: 2022 Sep 16 1604 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Sep 16 1557 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-------------------------------------------------------------​------------------
--(summary of earlier M7.9)

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 158
Issue Time: 2022 Sep 16 1010 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2022 Sep 16 0944 UTC
Maximum Time: 2022 Sep 16 0949 UTC
End Time: 2022 Sep 16 0956 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.9
Location: N18W78
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

the impacts of this Ms and more... will be at the funeral of the Queen...
my 5 cents

and ...

Did you hear the Russia is about to break the Antartica treaty?
This is incredible news
The only thing that every country in the world agrees with is
the Antarctica treaty.
The treaty that says any peasants like us cannot travel into that area
BUT Russia just said they are breaking away from the treaty
They say they are going to reveal all about what is beyond and under the ice
AND IT IS HUGE
(excuse the Glossa lol)
But they are saying there are entire civilizations there, cities, people,
lakes, immense lands!
That is a wow eh?


well this solar energys seem to help ...

its all connected...

M1.9 flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

^^^ from 3098

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

And an M1.1 from 3098 shortly before

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: A high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 17th. The gaseous material is flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. There is a slight chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms when the windy stream arrives.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SUNSPOT RESURRECTION: Just when you thought old sunspot AR3088 was dead, it's back. The decaying sunspot is growing again, adding more than 50% to its area over the past 24 hours:

https://imgur.com/pmqJ7ze

This is the sunspot's second time around the sun. The first time in August it peppered Earth with dozens of solar flares, and later hammered Venus with one of the strongest farside radiation storms in decades. The sunspot reappeared on the Earthside of the sun a few days ago and was renumbered AR3102. It appeared to be in decay. Not so fast? Stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/wdFC8LQ

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

SolarDemon movie of the eruptive M1's and CME:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

CME detected by SoHO C2:

[link to sol24.net (secure)]

Another M-flare--3098 NW limb.

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M2.6

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

As noted by Solarsoft, the earlier double-peaked M1 was actually one event. The initial flare was probably M5+ but the footpoint was hidden beyond the limb. As the hot post-flare loops rose above the horizon, GOES detected the M1.9 x-rays.

Solarsoft close-up movie of the M1.1/M1.9 event:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

SEEDS movie shows an irregular-shaped CME from the M1.9:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

I've been sitting on this important scientific paper for more than a month. I need to post it now or delete it down the 'memory-hole' forever. I think it's too important to flush it...so I hope somebody learns something from this.

A chance alignment between Earth and a Mars-bound spacecraft has given us a rare glimpse into the movement of high-energy particles from the Sun.




The space between the planets in our solar system is filled with a wispy sea of charged particles that flow out from the Sun’s atmosphere. This particle population is augmented by cosmic rays — speedy protons and atomic nuclei accelerated in extreme environments across the universe — which ebb and flow against the 11-year solar activity cycle. This undulating particle background is punctuated by bursts of high-energy particles from the Sun, which can be unleashed suddenly in violent solar storms.

Spacecraft that venture out from the protection of Earth’s magnetic field must navigate this ocean of particles and weather solar storms. And if we someday wish to send astronauts to other planets, we’ll need to know how high-energy solar particles, which pose a risk to the health of astronauts and electronic systems alike, travel through the solar system.

Full article here:
[link to skyandtelescope.org (secure)]

From the actual Chinese paper--

First Report of a Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed by China's Tianwen-1 Mission in Transit to Mars

3.1. Overview of the SEP Event on 2020 November 29
The 2020 November 29 SEP event originated from a fast and relatively wide CME, associated with an M4.4-class X-ray flare from active region (AR) 12790.

Freely available paper loaded with graphs and eye-opening data:

[link to iopscience.iop.org (secure)]

Are they coming in pair*s?

If you will watch the SOHO MOVIE at the links provided
you can notice a very long duration flare at the 1:00 o'clock
position that has been going for 2 days!

Not a surprise the Schumannn Resonance is really high:
[link to sosrff.tsu.ru]

Beautiful video from NemesisMaturity channel:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

Published 9-18-2022


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 09/18/2022 07:09 PM

Returning old AR3089 has been announcing his imminent return today. Just produced a C6.5 flare from just beyond the limb.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3102 (S25W02, Eki/beta)
contributed to the strongest event of the period, a long-duration C3.8
flare at 18/1540 UTC. Several small spots developed among its
intermediate spots over the past day. Region 3100 9S22W60 (S22W60,
Dso/beta). produced a C3.5 flare at 18/1816 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph
imagery contained a CME signature from the SW in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
beginning after 18/1800 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is
ongoing. Minor decay was observed in the regions trailer spots.
Emerging flux was noted to the north of the region. No other potentially
Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 18-20 Sep, with a
slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.

***AR3102 is now directly facing Earth so be alert for CMEs from this region. It's already produced many large CMEs during its first rotation.

AR3102- Now Earth-facing-

:AR3102:
:3102_mag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 262 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Sep 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3100 S22W60 354 0150 Dso 09 06 Beta
3102 S25W02 298 0320 Eki 12 25 Beta

C7.6 from AR3102. Remember last rotation these same 2 ARs were trading M-flares. They seem to be magnetically connected; perhaps even deep beneath the sun's surface. I expect old AR3089 to up the stakes with an M-flare soon.

GONG pic thru misty skies in Australia:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

NemesisMaturity YouTube channel from yesterday's eruption
--seems to make this event out as pretty "big." Any ideas
on this you guys?


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

NemesisMaturity solar channel for 9-19-2022

NM also mentions an event 12 years ago which appeared to
"vent" a 180 degree section at the top of the sun. The
vent yesterday was much smaller than this one (1/2 the size)
but the "trend" still seems ominous.


The Oracle's Cookie

Right now (until the end of September) is probably the best time of your life to get a great view of the King of Planets JUPITER! A decent pair of binoculars or a small telescope will get you a view as good as any Galileo got. Jupiter is at opposition (to the sun) on Sept. 26th and also its closest approach to Earth in 70 years!

Jupiter to reach opposition, closest approach to Earth in 70 years-

(<50%)

Jupiter's opposition occurs every 13 months, making the planet appear larger and brighter than any other time of the year. But that's not all. Jupiter will also make its closest approach to Earth in the last 70 years! This happens because Earth and Jupiter do not orbit the Sun in perfect circles - meaning the planets will pass each other at different distances throughout the year. Jupiter's closest approach to Earth rarely coincides with opposition, which means this year's views will be extraordinary. At its closest approach, Jupiter will be approximately 365 million miles in distance from Earth. The massive planet is approximately 600 million miles away from Earth at its farthest point.

"With good binoculars, the banding (at least the central band) and three or four of the Galilean satellites (moons) should be visible," said Adam Kobelski, a research astrophysicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. "It's important to remember that Galileo observed these moons with 17th century optics. One of the key needs will be a stable mount for whatever system you use."

Full article here:

[link to www.spacedaily.com (secure)]

That YouTuber does a good job of video editing and I appreciate his straightforward presentations. However this post is almost a word-for-word ripoff of Dr. Tony's article at spaceweather.com. It's a mildly noteworthy event but really no big deal-- you ain't seen nuthin' yet. As Solar Max ramps up we'll see eruptions across the equator that will make your jaw drop! These were very minor flares and maybe even a coincidence in their timing. These flares weren't simultaneous, by the way, they took place over a period of hours.

Correlation is not the same as Causation.

Cool! Thanks for the heads up! :)

Yesterday, Sept. 18th, the sun's southern hemisphere convulsed all at once. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded three apparently simultaneous explosions more than a million kilometers apart.

Coincidence? Maybe not. Twelve summers ago, SDO witnessed an even bigger eruption with a dozen significant shock waves, flares, filament eruptions, and CMEs spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude. Researchers studying the event realized that the blasts were a chain reaction connected by wide-ranging faults ("separatrices") in the sun's global magnetic field. Yesterday's event may have been the same.

A CME left the sun following the triple explosion, but the jury's still out on whether it will hit Earth. NOAA analysts are modeling the cloud's trajectory now.

M1.0 flare a few hours ago from 3102

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://twitter.com/_/status/1572185632386031616

Last Edited by Simple27 on 09/20/2022 11:03 AM

C7.7 from 3102

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

AR3102 is still directly Earth-facing for another day or 2. We haven't seen any major CMEs, but I did notice 2 small plasma ejections in the STEREO cor2 images. There's a possibility that these are Earth-directed. I only mention this to be aware of a chance 'stealth' CME in the next 3 or 4 days.

STEREO cor2 Diff movie:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

This C4.5 may have produced some ejecta:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

M1 flare:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

C7.7 flare:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

AR3105 has brought in his new pals 3106 and another un-numbered region.-

:AR3105:
:3105_mag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 264 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Sep 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3100 S24W86 356 0080 Hax 06 01 Alpha
3102 S26W26 296 0280 Eko 13 16 Beta
3105 S14E62 208 0350 Dhi 08 11 Beta
3106 S10E56 214 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta