SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Wrong thread!



Last Edited by mistersplinter on 08/15/2022 01:56 PM

M2.7 flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

That's awesome! I bet it looks great. I think you meant to post this on the EQ thread.

lol yup I did!

Last Edited by mistersplinter on 08/15/2022 01:57 PM

M0.9

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

WTF???

Are the solar scientists all on holiday or have they already gone to the bunkers? The chimps are running the show now at NOAA & Lockheed.

There's no such thing as an M0.9 and Lockheed posted it as an M9---buffoons! It was actually a C9.97 or call it an M1 if you like, but NOT an M "0", LOL. If I don't lol I'd be crying. They oughtta offer me a 60-day employment audition (I could work from home on a laptop and do a better job!).

So much activity suddenly I'm not sure where to begin. NOAA's gonna burn up the supercomputer trying to forecast these CMEs and their possible interactions.

1) Remember we already have a slow CME enroute from yesterday's filament blast.

2) This morning's filament eruption also produced a CME w/Earth-directed components. It's about 100 km/s faster than yesterday's.

SEEDS movie of 2nd filament CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

3) The 1st M-flare from 3078 also launched a much faster CME.

M1 flare Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

M1 flare CME (SEEDS movie):

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

4) The M2.7 flare kicked up some plasma but I don't think anything ejected into space.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Each of these CMEs is directed in different directions but they may have overlapping Earth-directed components. This is very reminiscent of the Nov 4, 2021 scenario when we had a strong geostorm. Time will tell.....

SWPC midday update (before the M-flares).....

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. A long-duration C2 X-ray event was
observed at 14/1235 UTC from Region 3076 (N16W30, Cao/beta). Associated
with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est 629 km/s). NSO GONG
imagery from the El Teide site observed a semi-circle filament to the N
of the region lift off beginning at about 14/1137 UTC. The approximate
10 degree long, E/W oriented filament was centered near N22W14 and was
also observed lifting off in GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery at about
the same time. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicated a partial-halo
CME, with the bulk of the shock directed primarily off the W limb,
beginning at 14/1248 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests
Earth impact mid to late on 17 Aug.

A filament eruption, centered near S21W43, began after 15/0400 UTC. A
long-duration X-ray event associated with the eruption reached C3 at
15/0522 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated a CME signature
from the eruption but more is needed to determine if an Earth-directed
component was present.

A Tenflare (130 sfu) was observed at 15/0613 UTC from activity around
Region 3078 (S24E01, Dai/beta-delta). The region also produced a C1/Sf
flare at 14/1918 UTC with associated Type II radio sweep (est 591 km/s).
Some ejecta was associated with the event but looks to be headed well
south of Sun-Earth line. The region developed penumbra through most of
its spots and gained a delta classification.

Region 3079 (S11W46, Cai/beta-gamma) produced a C5/Sf at 14/1400 UTC,
the largest of the period. Some minor development was observed around
its trailer spots. Region 3081 (N12E24, Dhi/beta) exhibited some decay
around its leader spot but minor growth around its trailer spot. The
last remaining spotted region on the visible disk, Region 3074 (S16E58,
Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 15-17 Aug.

ANOTHER M-FLARE!

An M1.19 from Earth-facing AR3078 again.

GONG pic from Hawaii:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Any CME from this one?

.
We have 97% humidity
here in Northern Europe tonight
It's going up to 99%
in a couple of hours

We're boiled alive...






Last Edited by Amenti on 08/15/2022 07:00 PM

Nope.

I edited my post as i just saw
it's rising to 99% humidity
in a couple of hours. Phew.

30 people fainted in a city here
(at a festival))

I thought that looked really strange and that I had never seen that before lol!

Then I saw on lmsal that they had it as an M9.0. I can't tell you how many times I looked back and forth at the data looking for the alleged M9.0. Haha!!!

Try to stay hydrated and cool!

Moderate Solar Activity
August 15, 2022 @ 19:00 UTC (UPDATED)

Solar activity increased to moderate levels on Monday with two M-Flares around AR 3078 near center disk and a high level C-Flare (C9.9) around AR 3079 in the southwest quadrant. The largest event of the day centered around 3078 was this M2.7 flare at 16:54 UTC (8/15). Updated coronagraph imagery is still required to determine if any of these events were eruptive. Both AR 3078 and 3079 showed signs of development during the past 12 hours could each be a threat for additional moderate M-Flares.

https://imgur.com/qb3zRRn

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Above is yesterday. Below is in addition.

https://imgur.com/lC1Vfua

C7.0 currently

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ETA: Peaked at C8.4

Last Edited by Simple27 on 08/15/2022 08:33 PM

Thank you deeply!!
2:30 am now, my head is mushy, I feel tipsy.
I'm gonna eat icecream now, then pass out.
in 2 hours we'll get 100% humidity.

It makes me think of this video ~
of an epic Crystal Cve exploration,
Please see video below, it's worth it!

(There are many more new videos,
but I like this one, it's so raw!
In the newer videos
there's high tech teams
with advanced cooling suits)

Interesting info ~

~~~~>> There's more to a crystal then you think!



Here's a lady describing her experience
when exploring the CRYSTAL Caves,
I share it & embed for context.
BUT the Italian Explorer team
that video is a bit down in the post :)

Are GIANT CRYSTALS
in deep earth cave systems programmed?
Interview with Leela Hutchison,
the first American WOMAN
to visit the caves in Mexico:


[link to www.youtube.com]

Snippets:



Entering The Cave with THE GIANT CRYSTALS:

Here's an italian exploration team
entering the cave in 100% moisture
able to bake them alive
if they stay longer then 5 minutes
without shielding suits.

Cueva de Los Cristales, Mexico


[link to www.youtube.com]



Read more:
Thread: Crystals and Temple Networks on Terra Firma




Last Edited by Amenti on 08/15/2022 08:46 PM

NOAA-2 filament CMEs will merge before reaching Earth!

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an increase in M-class
flare activity. Region 3078 (S24W05, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the
largest flare of the period, an M2/1n flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at
15/1654 UTC, as well as an earlier M1 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at
15/1436 UTC. This region also continued to be the most magnetically
complex spot group on the visible disk.

Region 3079 (S11W52, Cao/beta) exhibited overall decay early in the
period, but began to show signs of minor redevelopment near its
intermediate and trailer spots later in the period. It was responsible
for an M1/1f at 15/1735 UTC, as well as multiple C-class flares earlier
in the period.

Despite being a fairly simple group, Region 3074 (S17W64, Hsx/alpha)
produced a pair of C3 flares at 15/0507 UTC and 15/0522 UTC. Region 3076
(N16W36, Cao/beta) was the only region that did not produce any flares
as it was fairly stable and unchanged. Region 3081 exhibited separation
between the leader and trailer spots, with continued decay in its
intermediate spots. This region produced a few low-levels C-class flares
but was otherwise inactive.

A filament eruption, centered near S21W43, began after 15/0400 UTC. A
long-duration X-ray event associated with the eruption reached C3 at
15/0522 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated a CME signature
from the eruption that, following further analysis, is likely to catch
the partial-halo CME from 14 Aug, and arrive at Earth simultaneously.

A Tenflare (130 sfu) was observed at 15/0613 UTC from activity around
Region 3078.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares and a slight chance for
X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 16-18 Aug.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 228 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Aug 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3074 S17W64 088 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3076 N16W36 060 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
3078 S24W05 030 0230 Dac 04 12 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3079 S11W52 076 0140 Cao 06 10 Beta
3081 N12E18 006 0220 Dao 08 16 Beta-Gamma

AR3078 B-G-D!

:AR3078:
:3078_mag:

AR3079/74-
:ARs3079/74:

AR3081 Beta-Gamma
:3081_mag:

Possible CME from the C8.49 event....Earth-facing ar3078 again.

SolarDemon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Any more CMEs coming our way may create an historic pile-up. Any flare larger than M4 may send aurora to lower latitudes (I HOPE).

It's been quite awhile since we've seen 4 M-flares and a large filament eruption in the same day.

SDO past 24-hours movies:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Well CME from this long duration solar flare is quite possible

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Very odd that the usually reliable STEREO coronagraph 2 has only 2 still frames for the entire 24-hr period. Most unusual. Also, SoHO has been sleeping again for 8 hours+! I wish I could get 8 hours sleep some day. God forbid we have an X47 flare and NASA is slow-walking the data and NOAA needs a day for 'further analysis'. A super-fast CME could arrive in less than 18 hours! FEMA and the power grid folks wait for SWPC to give us warnings.

All of our great tech and early warning systems seem set up to FAIL in the Klownworld Earth. God help us.

Good catch... you may be right.

A C5.9 from AR3078 again.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 08/15/2022 10:17 PM

Dimming movie seems to indicate some kind of ejection:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]