SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

There is no climate crisis, there's a LOVE CRISIS!



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

If the above AC post is still here above my post, do NOT click!!!

Earth-directed CME launched today from AR3076 (mid-disk north).

A filament exploded causing a C2.4 LDE and CME.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

STEREO cor 2 movie of CME:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

GONG movie shows the filament eruption:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 08/14/2022 12:40 PM

AS usual, SOHO C2 stopped updating at the exact same time as the CME launch.

This has happened too many times to be a mere coincidence.

I wonder why they do this?

Solarsoft close-up movies of CME liftoff and C flare..... the filament ejects in the first 1 second so you may need to replay to see it.

AIA304a:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

AIA193a:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

It certainly looks Earth-directed... waiting for SoHO to confirm.



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 08/14/2022 01:00 PM

SoHO C3 image shows a partial halo CME.

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Short SEEDS movie of halo CME....definitely has geoeffective components:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CME should arrive just ahead of the coronal hole hi-speed stream. Auroras will be active later this week....

CACTus details -Type II Halo w/est. speed of 400 km/s:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of M-class solar flares today. With 8 numbered sunspot groups on the solar disk, a flare could come from almost anywhere. Indeed, sunspots AR3076, 78, 79, and 81 are all seething with activity, setting the stage for a potentially significant explosion.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/G9NckbG

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Hi, Simple That model looks correct to me. Not a super-powerful CME but we may see a lot of density. The Bz polarity will determine the level of geo-storming as usual.... you know the drill.

Of course any additional CMEs in the next 24 hrs. could amplify the effects.

Did you happen to catch whether it was a C-class, M-class
or an X-class flare?

Just curious!


The Oracle's Cookie

It was a filament eruption, but it did cause a C2.4 x-ray event. Please read the prior page for details.

Vice President Harris explains our goals in outer space.....





[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

For the love of God.

Here I am over here, stressing out to the max about a new job opportunity that I'm all worried about not having the stamina/energy for, and THIS woman is our VP. Lol. Just lol.

REMEMBER....You heard it here first, LOL

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with C-class activity observed
from a variety of spotted regions currently on the visible disk. The
most significant event of the period occurred from reverse polarity
Region 3076 (N16W23, Cai/beta) when a long duration C2 x-ray event was
observed at 14/1235 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio
signature with an estimated shock velocity of 629 km/s observed from
both the San Vito and Sagamore Hill radio observatories. NSO GONG
imagery from the El Teide site observed a semi-circle filament to the N
of the region lift off beginning at about 14/1137 UTC. The approximate
10 degree long, E/W oriented filament was centered near N22W14 and was
also observed lifting off in GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery at about
the same time. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicated a partial-halo
CME, with the bulk of the shock directed primarily off the W limb,
beginning at 14/1248 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests
Earth impact mid to late on 17 Aug. Further analysis is ongoing.

Additional flare activity included numerous C1 x-ray events throughout
the period from Regions 3078 (S25E06, Cao/beta), 3081 (N10E31, Dai/beta)
and 3079 (S11W39, Cai/beta). Region 3079 also produced a C5/Sf at
14/1400 UTC, the largest of the period. At 14/1918 UTC, Region 3078
produced a C1.Sf flare with an associated Type II Sweep, estimated shock
velocity of 6=591 km/s. Region 3079 exhibited some decay in its leader
spot while also developing several small intermediate spots. Region 3076
was in gradual decay. A new region of emerging flux was observed N of
Region 3076. Region 3081 continued to grow. The remaining numbered
regions were stable or in decay.

Other activity included magnetic reconnection events in the vicinity of
Region 3078. Several instances of coronal restructuring were observed in
SDO/AIA 193 beginning after 13/1700 UTC. Initial analysis and model
output suggests Earth impact mid to late on 17 Aug. Further analysis is
ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 15-17 Aug due to the
development of Regions 3079 and 3081.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 227 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Aug 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3071 S18W90 128 0120 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
3074 S16W52 090 0110 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3076 N16W23 061 0090 Cai 05 09 Beta
3078 S25E06 032 0060 Cao 03 05 Beta
3079 S11W39 077 0130 Cai 08 15 Beta
3081 N10E31 007 0160 Dai 07 13 Beta

(computer difficulties...double post.)

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 08/14/2022 10:05 PM

Not sure what to think about "word salad" from Kamala Harris,
in the post above this from Helios Maxiumus.

This update on SOLAR ACTIVITY seems to be fairly straight
foreward. I haven't listened to this YouTube narrator before
this first video I found today, but his visuals for TODAY'S FILAMENT
RELEASE AND HALO CME are just gorgeous. Also a very UNUSUAL
"V-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE" rotating earth-facing he says...
"I've never seen this before." It reaches almost entirely
NORTH TO SOUTH poles and does look unusual! What do you'all
think?


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

Narrator claims the earth-hit will be somewhere
around the 19th...but that seems a little longer than
usual. Probably more like the 17th or 18th IMHO.

Pretty good coverage!

This is NemesisMaturity's coverage of that "unusual V-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE" COMING AROUND EARTH-FACING.


[link to youtu.be (secure)]


Will be an interesting week, guys!




The Oracle's Cookie

Another CME....

The big fat fuzzy filament below ar3079 has jumped off of the sun. This was accompanied by a C3.5 x-ray flare.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

GONG h-alpha movie:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SoHO and STEREO both caught napping... so no coronagraph images of CME at this time. We may have colliding CMEs depending on the speed of this one.

I have to go to work today.... so I'll check in later.

Close-up movie of filament eruption:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

.
I posted my reply in the thread below
how to heal body of radiation poisoning
(linked to "space effects")
Thread: Does anyone have a magic bullet for Fibromyalgia? (Page 4)

(I posted it there
to not disturb your clean page)



Last Edited by Amenti on 08/15/2022 08:19 AM

bla bla bla blah...the drama queen strikes again

Thanks as always for the updates !!
Hope all is well with you :)
Your friend

SoHO again shut off just as CME was ejected. Stereo has huge data gap also.

I think this one may miss to the south of Earth.

M1 flare from AR3078.

3078 is directly facing Earth!

it could b worse...she could b givin u uh zoom massage instead of...uh..