SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

northeastern limb of the sun is bursting with activity. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this frenetic 5-hour sequence during the early hours of Oct. 26th:

At least half a dozen explosions occured during that brief movie. The blast site is hidden just behind the edge of the sun. It's almost certainly an unstable sunspot. The sun's rotation will bring it into view within the next 24-48 hours, creating a geoeffective source of solar activity.

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 10/26/2021 11:41 PM

Our otherwise quiet sun had a stormy five-hour fiesta during the early hours of Tuesday (Oct. 26).

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded a series of eruptions on the limb of the sun, not facing the Earth. It's unclear from the angle of the explosions (relative to Earth) from where they emanated, but the space weather tracking site SpaceWeather.com suggested it would be a sunspot, or a dark concentration of magnetic activity on the sun's surface.

"At least half a dozen explosions occurred during that brief movie," SpaceWeather.com wrote in the report. "The blast site is hidden just behind the edge of the sun. It's almost certainly an unstable sunspot."

[link to www.space.com (secure)]

AR 2887 is getting really active today. The largest event was a long-duration C 8.5.

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

There is a CME also from this event. It appears to be going east of the Sun-Earth line but there may be geoeffective components.

A 10% chance of X-flares today. AR2887 is in an Earth-facing position now.

A great all-in-one resource for finding solar and space weather data is SOL24.

Handy link:

[link to sol24.net (secure)]

Thank you for the link Helios, hope you are well today, been sensing some space weather stuff the last few days

From which solar region does a CME need to launch in order to be earth-directed? I ask because it seems, in the last month or so, we've seen a couple of CMEs that were forecast and modeled as being earth-directed. However, we never saw a blip in Kp. I would imagine the speed/intensity of the burst also factors into the equation.

On one of Tamitha Skov's videos, she seemed to indicate that a CME would need to be positioned toward the western limb in order to affect earth.

SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: Whatever you do, don't drop that planet. Sunspot AR2891 is big enough to swallow it whole:

https://imgur.com/TXPZQJk

Michael Teoh of Penang, Malaysia, photographed the active region yesterday as it was rotating over the sun's northeastern limb. He inserted an image of the Earth for scale (and foreboding).

Since then, AR2891 has produced a pair of M1-class flares, multiple C-class flares, and a handful of CMEs. On Oct 26th alone, eight flashes of extreme UV radiation hit Earth, ionizing the top of our atmosphere and causing brief shortwave radio blackouts.

Just wait until AR2891 is actually facing Earth. For the next two weeks it will transit the face of the sun, increasing the geoeffectiveness of future flares. Stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

A general rule-of-thumb is that +/-30 degrees from the center meridian is most likely geoeffective. However every event is unique and slow CMEs from filaments are much different from fast CMEs from a major flare. Filament eruptions are known to squirt plasma in unpredictable directions and also give us 'stealth CMEs' we weren't expecting.

CMEs were only first observed in the 1970's so this is basically a new science. Forecasting exact impact times and geoeffective intensity are a crapshoot at best. This is why its so much fun to watch and learn more.

AR 2887 has taken center stage and is now directly facing Earth. The region fired off a dozen C-flares and possibly a CME today. Jan Alvstad of Solen.info classifies the lower part as Beta-Gamma-Delta....so we can expect more flaring.

Solarsoft flare list:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 301 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2886 S19W55 334 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2887 S26E04 275 0250 Dhi 08 26 Beta-Gamma
2889 S24E31 248 0040 Bxo 04 06 Beta
2890 S18W39 318 0030 Bxo 05 04 Beta
2891 N17E67 212 0250 Cao 04 04 Beta

SolarHam region details and images:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

CONFIDENCE IS LOW.... NOAA's new motto?

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with multiple C-class flares. There
were five numbered regions on the visible disk as region 2888 (S12,
L=252) decayed to plage. Of the 5 remaining regions, region 2887
(S26E04, Dhi/beta-gamma) was the most notable as it developed a few more
intermediate spots and produced a C8.5, the largest of the period.
Region 2891 (N17E67, Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has
changed little while decreasing in overall activity.

At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by
LASCO C2. As this CME prorogates outward, it appears to have a very
faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not
clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after
26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow
late on 30 Oct. However, confidence is low at this time and additional
analysis is needed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with C-class flares
and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 28-30
Oct.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Latest HMI Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Interesting post, Helios! "Confidence is LOW" seems to
be the mood of the week even in POLITICS! lol!

Here is a video from Nemesis Maturity for 10-27-2021
where he even mentions that phrase: "Confidence is LOW."
Was just published last night:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

Nemesis Maturity. Reporting the 10/27-2021 eruption
from that nasty sun spot...as well as a predicted
"glancing blow" (whatever THAT means) on the 30th
(Saturday) from a CME.

Looks like some "EXOTIC ENERGIES" this year for Halloween!!


The Oracle's Cookie

M ...

Double M

I only slept for 5 hours and we had 2 M-flares from 2887 at 00 degrees long. Seems to an impulsive type (as opposed to eruptive LDE), so a CME is unlikely this time.

Movie of M2.2 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

GONG h-Alpha imagery shows a long embedded filament in 2887. If it lifts off with one these events we might have a major league CME coming directly at Earth.

Filament snake inside AR2887:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot AR2887 is facing Earth and flaring. So far today, Oct. 28th, the active region has produced two M-class solar flares (M1.4 @ 0740 UT; M2.2 @ 10:28 UT). At the Givatayim Observatory in Israel, astronomer Ofer Gabzo happened to be looking when the stronger of the two occurred:

https://imgur.com/ktmcxMg

"Conditions were horrible (lots of clouds and haze), but luckily I captured a video right at the peak of an M2-class flare in AR2887," says Gabzo.

Pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flares ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing brief shortwave radio blackouts centered on the Indian Ocean and, a little later, Africa. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 20 MHz.

We don't yet know if these explosions hurled CMEs toward Earth; tentatively, we'd say not. Confirmation awaits fresh coronagraph data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Blackout maps:

M1.4

https://imgur.com/PaaNclh

M2.2

https://imgur.com/iXcbZkb

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Another M flare in progress

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Currently M3.7

Current M flare is at M7.5 M8.8

Last Edited by Simple27 on 10/28/2021 11:36 AM

X!!!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://imgur.com/XsPH4HL

Last Edited by mistersplinter on 10/28/2021 11:43 AM

maybe we will see all the originals back in this thread soon....
I know some of us are still here

I hope so :)