SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Solar activity is finally picking up again. We now have 5 numbered ARs, all in the south (+ 2 un-numbered spots + 1 that is actually 2 separate ARs). A new region emerged quickly near mid-disk and produced a few B-flares (AR2890). Here's a rundown of the official sunspots.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 299 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2886 S19W29 335 0110 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
2887 S26E27 279 0330 Dki 07 20 Beta-Gamma
2888 S14E52 254 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
2889 S25E58 248 0010 Bxo 05 03 Beta
2890 S19W11 317 0010 Bxo 04 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Oct
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Nmbr Lat Lo
2883 N27 215
2885 N15 187

I'd hate to see all those volcanoes and earthquakes go to waste without folks blaming solar activity ;)

HELLO! That C9 just happened while I was typing my last post. I saw your last comment and got all tingly, lol. Whatever's coming over soon should be very interesting to see.

SolarDemon movie of C9 flare (pic are still coming in from SDO):

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

The C8 and the C9 both produced CMEs from the limited images I have seen. It's a crying shame we don't have a coronagraph to give us data in Near-Real-Time. STEREO and SoHO haven't updated for 6 hours or more. I thought NASA would be fixing this problem with their fancy new antenna dish for the Deep Space Network. I guess they're preoccupied flying toy helicopters on Mars which provides almost zero scientific knowledge....just some postcardy views of a barren wasteland.

Same rant, different Solar Cycle......

The GOES X-Ray background has remained above the C-level for nearly 6 six hours now.It's remarkable in that we've hardly seen a C-flare for a month or more. Even more astounding is that the source of the surge is still on the far side....YIKES!


GOES X-Ray flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Close-up movie of the C8.5 flare 304angstroms:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Other wavelengths available here:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

I’ve been crawling in my skin since this afternoon. Walking barefoot in the grass to defrag. Now I know why. Yowzers!

SolarDemon movie of M1.3 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Hi Hugh!

https://twitter.com/_/status/1452839418583158784

[/twitt​er]

Last Edited by joinca on 10/25/2021 11:47 PM

Yeah, this thing looks a major player.

I have not posted in this thread for years but have always followed sunspots going back to 2011. This next spot looks to be the most violent going back to Solar Cycle 24. I won't be surprised if we see a X10+ based on the current imagery. Does not look stable at all. Willing to bet it at least gives us our largest flare thus far in Solar Cycle 25.

SOMETHING FLARE-Y THIS WAY COMES: Suddenly, the northeastern limb of the sun is bursting with activity. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this frenetic 5-hour sequence during the early hours of Oct. 26th:

https://imgur.com/QwDnBal

At least half a dozen explosions occured during that brief movie. The blast site is hidden just behind the edge of the sun. It's almost certainly an unstable sunspot. The sun's rotation will bring it into view within the next 24-48 hours, creating a geoeffective source of solar activity.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Solar Activity is Moderate
October 26, 2021 @ 03:00 UTC

It seemed like only a matter of time, but solar activity is now at moderate levels. The active region about to turn into view from behind the northeast limb produced an M1.3 solar flare at 02:47 UTC (Oct 26). It would appear that additional flares above the M1 threshold will be probable during the next 24 hours. More to follow.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

With our geomagnetic field at its lowest level in some 25 thousand years I'd say if this happenes again it will probably do more than just fry the planet. Scortched would probably be more like it.

M1.0

https://imgur.com/KXVQjDk

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 10/26/2021 12:06 PM

The flare chart looks so alive

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

I’m at work today reading all of your fine posts. This AR is now visible on NE limb. Two M flares and about a dozen C’s in less than 24 hours. Impressive.

Long time since we've seen 3 active regions produce multiple C-flares on the same day. Maybe a first for Cycle 25....not sure. AR 2889 produced 3 C-flares and a B9.7, AR 2887 had 2 C's, and of course the new guy 2891 with 2 M's and many C-flares.

Movie of C2 flare from 2887:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 300 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2886 S20W41 333 0100 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2887 S26E15 277 0370 Dhi 08 20 Beta
2888 S13E39 253 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2889 S23E43 249 0020 Bxo 04 04 Beta
2890 S18W25 317 0040 Cro 05 05 Beta
2891 N20E78 214 0280 Dso 04 Beta

Region Images and Details from SolarHam:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/26/2021 09:27 PM

NOAA/SWPC Forecast Discussion is puzzling as usual, lol......

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. There were six numbered regions
on the visible disk. Of these, newly numbered region 2891 (N20E78,
Dso/beta) was the most notable while the others were quiet and little
changed. As 2891 rotated onto the north eastern limb it was responsible
for a pair of M1 flares, multiple c-class flares, and a handful of CMEs.
Classification of this newly numbered region is low confidence at this
time due to foreshortening, but there does appear to be a trailing
grouping at the time of this writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels 27-29 Oct with a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27 Oct. Chances for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will decrease slightly 28-29 Oct
as region 2891 makes it way off of the north eastern limb.

*****************************

How can they forecast decreasing chances for radio blackouts when they just admitted having 'low confidence' in their assessment of magnetic classification. They have no way of knowing what AR2891 is capable of if it hasn't been clearly observed yet. By the way, I have LOW CONFIDENCE in EVERYTHING NOAA SAYS, haha.

Not to leave out the nerds at NASA.......STEREO A had a data gap for 8 f'n hours last night. This just when the big uptick in activity began beyond the limb. STEREO was perfectly positioned to record these events but the data went missing.....

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded a series of eruptions on the limb of the sun, not facing the Earth. It's unclear from the angle of the explosions (relative to Earth) from where they emanated, but the space weather tracking site SpaceWeather.com suggested it would be a sunspot, or a dark concentration of magnetic activity on the sun's surface.

"At least half a dozen explosions occurred during that brief movie," SpaceWeather.com wrote in the report. "The blast site is hidden just behind the edge of the sun. It's almost certainly an unstable sunspot."

Scientists will get a better glimpse of the region when it rotates into the view of our Earth in roughly 24 to 48 hours, the report added. The sun's rotation varies by latitude because it is a large ball of gas, but it takes 24 Earth days to rotate at the equator and more than 30 days at the poles.



[link to www.msn.com (secure)]

July 3:

Today's X-class solar flare is the first X-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 and the first X-class solar flare since the massive X8.2 solar flare that took place on 2017/09/10. Yes, it has indeed been almost 4 years since we last breached the X-class threshold. Isn't it crazy? Our Sun is one day early with her fireworks display to celebrate Independence Day with our American friends but we will take it nonetheless!

This morning we already got an M2.7 solar flare from sunspot region 2838. This solar flare peaked at 07:17 UTC and who would have guessed that this was a sign of things to come! A shame that this newly developed region is already on the north-west limb. It will transit onto the far-side of the solar disk in the next 24 to 48 hours and any future eruptions coming from it are for sure not going to be directed towards our planet.



[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com (secure)]