SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

C7.4

https://imgur.com/IwrLIbh

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Oh, idk, I just remember the animation lolol.

Ty, watching now

So now we have 4 on the way?

Funny 4.7 then 7.4

I was blocked by Cloudflare from reaching this website since the C7 flare last night. Very weird, apparently others were not affected. So this info is a late.....

NOAA/SWPC-

A partial-halo CME associated with the M4 flare was observed in LASCO C2
imagery beginning at around 28/0648 UTC. Subsequent analysis and model
output suggest this event is Earth-directed and predicted to arrive
either late on 31 Aug or early on 01 Sep.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 241 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Aug 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2859 N18W18 009 0040 Cao 06 07 Beta
2860 S29W10 001 0340 Eki 12 27 Beta-Gamma
2861 N16E28 323 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2862 S28W81 072 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta

SOLEN has 2860 classified as BETA-GAMMA-DELTA. I agree with that assessment, at least it was last night.

[link to www.solen.info]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

SolarDemon movie of C 7 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

STEREO Ahead CME looks mostly below the S>Earth line:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

We also had an impulsive C8 flare from AR2860 at 10 UT.

Movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Trying to keep track of all of the flares. Here's what we have from that C7.0 that was about an hour before the M4.7.

C7.0 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

M4.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C4.2 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C2.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.4 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C7.4 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C7.4 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.0 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C8.1 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

I realize Ben Davidson's videos are not everyone's
cup of tea--but the graphics he presents in today's
daily report are just spectacular. Check it out!

(At least one other GLP member likes Ben's stuff! lol!)
Thread: 2 CMEs on the Way, Deep Mystery Solved, Galactic Magnetism | S0 News Aug.29.2021

Info about the TWO CME impacts coming in tonight and
tomorrow are included:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

8-29-2021 "Daily Report" from Ben Davidson


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 08/29/2021 11:29 AM

Great job, Simple27--THANKS!


The Oracle's Cookie

I've only watched bits of these but it sure sounds like he knows what he's talking about. Lol@ me

For consideration.

Quick update as Ida has come to visit Tennessee.

AR2860 produced 7 minor C-flares today. The largest was an impulsive C3...seen here:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Recent images for 2860:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM FORECAST: A CME expected to hit Earth on Aug. 30th is either late or it missed. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a geomagnetic storm. Another CME, propelled toward us by Saturday's M4.7-class solar flare, is on the way. NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of G2-class geomagnetic storms when it arrives on Sept. 1-2.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SEETHING SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR2860 is seething with activity. This one-hour movie taken by Maximilian Teodorescu of Magurele, Romania, shows multiple arcs of hot plasma shooting up and down the length of the sunspot group:

https://imgur.com/HvsgFbg

"There were lots of small flares during the short time I observed the sunspot on Aug. 30th," says Teodorescu. "It was quite a sight."

All these small, mostly C-class, flares may be helping the sunspot "blow off steam," forestalling the buildup to a more ferocious explosion. Don't count on quiet, though. AR2680 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class eruptions. It could easily blow its top before it rotates off the Earth-facing side of the sun later this week.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Large Coronal Holes Facing Earth - G2 Geomagnetic Storm Watch - Solar and Space Weather News


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Did the sun have a cardiac arrest? GOES spike 0100 EST, then basically flat line. I woke up at 0100 and immediately looked at GOES. Kinda like that spike in the xray flux woke me. For some reason I went straight to that flux chart. Pretty sure its not a software glitch. Lots of weird happenings in this world we can't explain. But hell yes; that was way friggin cool. I mean that spike interrupted my typical sleep pattern exactly at 0100.

Last Edited by Broose on 08/31/2021 08:39 PM

It looks like the sun keeps blowing around, we missed some CME but i wonder why it is so active.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Earth's magnetic field is about to get jolted by a pair of CMEs. Estimated time of arrival: Sept. 1-2. NOAA forecasters expect geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2. That means people as far south as Idaho and New York (geomagnetic latitude 55 deg.) could see auroras.

THIS IS WHAT'S HEADING OUR WAY: Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are heading for Earth. The first was hurled in our direction on Aug. 28th when sunspot AR2860 exploded. Later the same day, this happened:

https://imgur.com/4o1rj2j

A massive filament of magnetism erupted, producing a second CME. Together, they are proceding in tandem toward our planet.

NOAA forecasters expect the CMEs to deliver a double blow separated by hours. The first CME could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm late on Sept. 1st. The second CME could intensify the storm, boosting it to a moderately strong G2-class event on Sept. 2nd.

Storms like these do no damage to power grids or satellites. They can, however, produce beautiful auroras at high latitudes. A light show is possible in Scandinavia, Iceland, Canada, and even some northern-tier US states.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

There is obviously some sort of a shield up- this is the second time earth headed CMEs have not been measured on earth..like they just vanished...

GEOMAGNETIC STORM--CANCELLED: NOAA forecasters no longer believe that a G2-class geomagnetic storm is likely today. The CMEs thought to be heading our way are either late or have missed altogether. Either way, the chance of a significant storm is diminished.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

NEW SUNSPOT, RAPIDLY GROWING: It didn't exist yesterday. Now it's bigger than Earth. A new sunspot is rapidly growing in the sun's southern hemisphere. Maximilian Teodorescu sends this picture of the active region from Magurele, Romania:

https://imgur.com/y13KoFx

"This group was born and evolved in just 24 hours," says Teodorescu. "It is rather large. In both white light and H-alpha you can see a lot of activity between the main spots." NOAA has numbered this region AR2863.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Very little activity, but a new sunspot was numbered AR2863 which produced a C 1 flare.

Movie:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2860 (S29W77, Dai/beta)
produced a C1 flare at 02/2055 UTC as it approached the SW limb. New
Region 2863
(S16E28, Cao/beta) emerged and was numbered this period, but was
otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low over 03-05 Sep.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 246 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2860 S29W77 002 0220 Dai 10 06 Beta
2863 S16E28 256 0070 Cao 04 07 Beta

AR2863 images:
[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

One of my pet peeves with NASA (which I've posted about before) is the antiquated DEEP SPACE NETWORK which is over 55 years old. Now with dozens of deep space missions and untold terabytes of streaming data, NASA is working on upgrades to the network. Hopefully, SoHO data won't drop out for 8 hours anymore.....

Excerpts from JPL's Press Release---

NASA’s Deep Space Network Looks to the Future

....The network has been the backbone of NASA’s deep space communications since 1963, supporting 39 missions regularly, with more than 30 NASA missions in development. The team behind it is now working hard to increase capacity, making a number of improvements to the network that will help advance future space exploration......

The network consists of tracking antennas across three complexes evenly spaced around the world at the Goldstone complex near Barstow, California; in Madrid, Spain; and in Canberra, Australia. In addition to supporting missions, the antennas are regularly used to conduct radio science – studying planets, black holes, and tracking near-Earth objects.

New Approaches

The network is also focusing on new approaches to how it goes about its work. For instance, for most of the DSN’s history, each complex was operated locally. Now, with a protocol called “Follow the Sun,” each complex takes turns running the entire network during their day shift and then hands off control to the next complex at the end of the day in that region – essentially, a global relay race that takes place every 24 hours.

Full text and graphics here:

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

ESA is planning a future space weather observatory mission to a Lagrange orbit (a la ACE, SoHO, DSCVR). They're now testing some of the sensors on a 'cubesat' satellite.

What is Sunstorm?

Sunstorm is a small satellite developed by ISAWARE, Aboa Space Research Oy, Oxford Instruments Technologies and Talvioja Consulting and hosts a CubeSat manufactured by Finland’s Reaktor Space Lab. CubeSats are miniaturised satellites based on standardised 10 cm boxes.

Once demonstrated in space, a follow-on version of the instrument will be flown on ESA’s Lagrange operational space weather monitoring mission, ESA had said in a statement before the satellite was launched. “It is important to note that this is just a preliminary look for now, but its stability and data quality are very promising,” Juhani Huovelin, Chairman of ISAWARE said in a release.

Full report here:

[link to www.indiatoday.in (secure)]

Anyone know anything about hose downward spikes on goes xray flux?